Fatter than Joey

It was on ESPN.com somewhere -- I found it through google... Essentially they have all the ST stats, and there are two drop-downs, one for the team, and one for the year.

I meant it as "actually pitched" instead of just throwing a tiny sample of work... meant that I doubt he's had little to no real workload in STs past. Turns out this is not true either... 2010 -- 4G 4IP 2009 -- 3G 3IP 2008 -- 4G 3.2IP 2007 -- 7G 6.2IP 2006 -- 8G 6.2IP and I assume that the further back you go, the more "traditional things" look. For the most part TH threw as much in 2010 ST as he did in 2009, and 2008. I seriously doubt that his lack of innings in ST is nothing more than a coincidence.

This is the real trick. I think I mentioned earlier in this thread that if Hoffman's still struggling in or near June, that I would be worried. Maybe I'm too forgiving, but I just can't get seriously worried yet. It depends what you mean by "seriously worried". In years past, when TH has struggled out of the gate, he has generally gotten everything back on track by early May. I am probably about 1 or 2 high-leverage failures away, from hoping that Hoffman gets reshuffled in the pen. If TH is still struggling in June, I think he is likely toast.

April has seen, historically, Trevor's second-highest monthly ERA split. While you're right in that he's never been *this* bad, it's not the first time he's started a season off poorly. Let's investigate the recent history a bit... Consider 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2010 -- (2006 he had a good April, 2009 only pitched 3 innings) 2005 -- G8 IP7.2 R5 ERA5.87 SO/9,7.0 SO/BB,6.0 WHIP1.147 2007 -- G10 IP8.2 R6 ERA6.23 SO/9,6.2 SO/BB,1.5 WHIP1.269 2008 -- G10 IP9.2 R7 ERA6.52 SO/9,8.4 SO/BB,2.25 WHIP1.552 2010 -- G9 IP9 R13 ERA13.00 SO/9,5.0 SO/BB 1.67 WHIP 2.000 On first glance I conclude the following. 1.) In the last 6 seasons, Hoffman has struggled (had a high ERA) in April 4 times. 2.) Hoffman has not had an April remotely close to the one he had in 2010. 2010 has been about 2x as bad, as his recent Aprils. 3.) Hoffman's K's are significantly down. 4.) I didn't list it, but in his career Hoffman has given up 17 April homeruns -- 6 of them came in 2010. What I am curious about though is "bad April" -- for a reliever with only 7-10IP in a month, it is possible to confuse "bad month" with "really bad game in a given month" To the gamelogs we go.... 2005 -- In 2005, Hoffman gave up 4Rs in his first appearance, and then in the rest of the month, gave up just one run in 7 appearances... In May 2005, TH gave up 1 run in 11 outings.... I would say Hoffman did not have a "bad April" rather, "one bad game in April", and then enjoyed an awesome May. 2007 -- In 2007, TH made 10 appearances, he was unscored on in 8 of those -- In back to back games, TH gave up 2 runs and 4 runs. In May he was unscored on in 12 appearances. Overall in 2007, he pitched well in most of his appearances in April and May -- I wouldn't consider April 2007, a "bad month". 2008 -- In 2008 TH was scored on in 4 of 10 appearances -- (three 1R and one 4R), In May 2008, he gave up one run twice in May out of 9 appearances -- I would qualify April 2008 as a "bad month". 2010 -- In 2010 TH has been scored upon in 6 of 9 appearances, in April, including 3 multi-run appearances of 2,3 and 5 runs. Also he has been scored upon in May as well, already (3 runs in 3 appearances, 2 of those 3 were scoreless). I would conclude, that any argument made consisting of "Hoffman has had bad Aprils" is largely hand-waving. Hoffman has had high ERA in recent Aprils, however I would only consider one of the months (2008) "bad" and the other months to be the result of one (or two) horrible performances. Furthermore, in each May, following a "high ERA April", TH seemed to have righted the ship by then, and pitched remarkably well. Given his performance last night, I am not sure we should feel terribly optimistic about TH going forward.

well since macha is not under contract, obviously if the brewers are not in the pennant race in september he won't be back. He got extended this off-season he would in fact need to be fired. Out of a cannon into Lake Michigan preferably. While that's true, the reason I feel differently about Manny is he has the stuff. Ben Hendrickson really didn't have the kind of stuff Manny does. I agree, and I think a good time to trade would be when some other team believes Parra has value. If we keep Parra and he turns it around that would super, if we trade him when he still has value, and he does well for his new team, so be it. If we trade Parra when his value is minimal then that sorta sucks.

Seemed like a very likeable guy. RIP. I met him once -- very very nice guy...

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif Very Sorry to hear about this. That cat was blessed to have even a little time with your family.

I would send Trevor down to AAA or something to work on his stuff. The only way (realistically) that this could happen would be a DL stint/rehab assignment. Maybe guys don't 'hide' injuries, but in the spirit of the thread title I was pondering the question anyway. I don't think that players necessarily "hide" injuries, in a malicious sense, however, I think after a bunch of games, every player has aches and pains, and sometimes (especially if you are older) it may be hard to discern "an injury" from "I'm sore and getting old". And of course these guys are incredibly competitive.

What injuries disallow you from throwing a changeup? A finger injury? A thumb perhaps -- generally you throw the pitch with the same arm-speed, but you use your thumb to generate some friction to slow the ball down... The ball is slower but you still have "arm speed". If your thumb was messed up, you'd have a hard time throwing a circle change or a Hoffman change.

I guess the question is, if both Narvdog and Suppan are replacement level, wouldn't calling up some SP from AAA give us the same result? No. Last year there were a number of starters that were worse than Suppan -- Burns, McClung, Villy.... etc... Just because Pitcher A, is below replacement level, you can't assume all of your AAA starters are better than that.

That, and for the most part, Brewer pitchers haven't had a lot of games where they have had the luxury of adding baserunners. Frankly, our pitchers have more to worry about than protecting Weeks and Prince -- Weeks gets hit by a lot of pitches... he always has... I don't think pitchers are throwing at him at all -- Prince, probably does get plunked on occasion. Some of that he probably has coming... Prince is a big boy, he can deal with it.

In the case of the 12th man, why would service time automatically be an issue? And if 12th man is actually good, how can that hurt? I think that the "12th man" -- the biggest issue is finding regular innings to pitch. I'd rather have Braddock getting regular innings and developing in Nashville, than sitting around waiting for innings to fall his way. As we saw last week, Hoffman ended up pitching in games that he had no business pitching in (from a game-result standpoint), but needed the innings to keep sharp. The other argument for keeping a guy like Suppan or Narveson over Stetter or Braddock, is that Suppan or Narveson can start if needed, where Stetter and Braddock cannot.

I missed the economics lecture......what did he say? That would be like saying "Does anyone have that inning Chris Mabeus pitched on DVR, I missed that"

You forgot: Kevin Costner - Baseball You sir, are an anchor on society's rowboat.

Isn't that a conflict of interest for him to be working for a MLB team and calling MLB games? As others have pointed out -- He is probably going to be more of an "ambassador" than someone with any day-to-day dealings. Think: Buck O'Neil - Royals Minnie Minoso - White Sox

Are they insane!? They may be. I don't even think that Z has pitched that poorly. He got jacked up pretty good in his first start, but after that -- 18IP 8ER (4.00 ERA), 25K, 8BB -- That's good enough to be in any rotation in MLB. Zambrano isn't worth his salary perhaps, but I'd take him in Milw. in a second. This will not help the Cubs score runs... actually Z is a pretty good hitter. It seems to me there has to be more to it than "our bullpen needs help", or maybe the Cubs are insane.

Zambrano, Wainwright, Carpenter or Oswalt. I don't think those guys qualify as "semi-big". MLB dropped Cliff Lee's suspension, in other news.

I don't like Macha at all, but I wouldn't support firing him mid-season at all, especially when I think .500 is a reasonable ceiling for this club. If something happened where things totally fell apart, i'd support firing him more, but certainly not at .500....

Parra has a brain the size of a koala bear. Just to be clear, is Parra's brain the size of a Koala Bear, or a Koala Bear's brain?

What I think we learned (but really already knew) about Soup from yesterday's game is that he still doesn't have the stuff to get big leaguers out consistently. They have to get themselves out against him. This is a great phrasing of your observation -- Suppan is good enough to keep the ball on the black of the plate, and low for the most part, but if he gets the ball up at all or over the plate, it gets crushed... Sometimes I pitch BP for my son's baseball team, and there a couple of kids that can hit the ball hard enough into my gravitational field, that I have a hard time getting my head or legs out of the way. If I stay inside they pull the ball, outside most of them go to RF or just swing and miss -- but every once in awhile I get way too much of the plate, and I know it the second I let go of the ball. Then I frantically pray "pleasedonthititupthemiddlepleasepleasepleaseplease" -- I suspect Suppan can relate to that feeling. I think the positive reactions are due more to the fact that he wasn't as bad as many/most were expecting, and like sheethead noted, that's not a good way to measure performance. Agreed... However, I don't think anyone here thinks that Suppan should be starting or that this start is an indication that Suppan has decided to embrace competency. I have no problem with Suppan starting here or there -- what fries me is that Parra seems to have been Gamel'd.

From May 1st until the trade he had a 2.87 ERA and .634 OPS against so I highly doubt they were down on him at all. I think you are absolutely wrong. Cordero had 9 BS's up until the trade, and Otsuka had clearly supplanted Cordero as their closer. I don't think they thought Cordero sucked, but I think they definitely saw Cordero as being very expendable.

Perv.

I don't think the Rangers would have traded Cordero straight up for 1/3 of a year of Lee. Why not? they had moved Cordero out of the closer role.

Would you rather have 6years of a major league ready Escobar or 2 years of him trying to learn on the fly and 4 of him playing at the level he will now? It really depends... It's not as if this decision is done in a vacuum... there are $$$ considerations than would affect other aspects of the team, and of course who Hardy could have gotten traded for at different points in his career. All I am really saying, is that I think it is fair and reasonable to criticize DM for the way Hardy was handled from Day 1 to the trade, and of course there were a lot of people here squawking the whole time, this wasn't a MMQB sort of thing. I think a reasonable argument can be made to the contrary as well... thus the debate.... On the other hand, I really don't think the JDLR criticism is very valid. I think Hart's off season arbitration win has made him look a lot worse in people's eyes than he really is. I think people don't like his approach to hitting (prior to this season), and his OF play... people were rubbed the wrong way, before his Arby case.

Yeah, there were some people, but there were plenty of downsides and who exactly do you think would have been netted? I am certain there was a point we could have traded Hardy for more than Gomez -- I really think there are many ways to look at the Hardy trade -- I just don't think it is fair to label it "MMQB" -- there was a ton of discussion way before the trade with the Twins. Get some AAAA player to man second base for nothing. They did that with Chris Barnwell. He was pretty awful.