Can we go 41-29 in the final 70 games? I think we need 90 wins to take the division

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

@ Colorado, @Arizona, @San Fran (i'm going to say a 4-7 trip) **4-7 overall

Cubs, Houston, St. Louis (really need to go 7-2 or better) ** 11-9 overall

@Houston, @St. Louis (3-3 split because we get Houston) **14-12 overall

Pittsburgh, Los Angeles (really need to go 5-2 or better) **19-14 overall

@New York, @ Pittsburgh (take 3/4 from Pitt on 4-3 trip) **23-17 overall

St. Louis, Chicago (need to go 4-2 or better) **27-19

@Houston, @St. Louis (3-3 split) **30-22

Philadelphia, Colorado (4-2 homestand) **34-24

@Cinci, @Chicago (2-4 roadtrip) **36-28

Florida, Pittsburgh (5-1 homestand) **41-29

 

25-9 at home (doable at their current pace)

16-20 on the road (might be tough given our struggles against even mediocre teams in the road)

 

Thoughts?

[Funketown]

I think they have a good shot. Just punching it into a binomial calculator with a .550 true talent level, the probability of winning 41+ is about 32%.

 

It's really not even that unlikely for a .500 team to go 12 over .500 in that many games. Since I'm a Brewers fan, I'll let my irrational fandom drive me to say that yes, they will win 90 games this season.

[RockCoCougars]

Frankly, I think both St. Louis and Pittsburgh have been playing out of their minds, and they are only a handful of games over .500. I think that 87 or 88 wins will take it. I also think that Cincy will end up to be the main hurdle.

[craigharmann]

I think it all depends on upgrades at short and third.

[Yeti73]

I agree completely that it will come down to Cincy. They have a great lineup, great pen and an abover average rotation. Their defense is also above average. Maybe I overestimate them, but this was a 91 win team last year and all signs point to them being better this year with a year of experience. Granted, their rotation seems to have taken a step back, but I never feel comfortable when they are at bat. Honestly, their biggest faults are 1. manager and 2. closer.

 

I'm not too worried about the Pirates and I think the Cards are largely smoke and mirrors, but I really think this weekend's series was HUGE for the simple fact that it pushes the Reds back.

[TheCrew]

Don't sleep on the Pirates, I know the Brewers have owned them recently - but that team has some talent. I agree the Cards have been getting by on smoke and mirrors though, I also think they rushed Pujols back and he won't be the same for a while yet.

 

Here is the thing I really like though:

- Only have to deal with Cincy one more time and it's on the road.

- Pirates/Cards: 6 series combined, 4 of which are at home.

 

The schedule was tough pre-break, but I like how it sets up division wise post-break. Especially when you consider the Brewers dominance at home.

[DHonks]

we just need to have 2 good 5-8 game winning streaks, and no losing streaks greater than 2 games. Most teams are around .500 when you take out the streaks, and that would be the same here.

[berniebrewer4life]

Frankly, I think both St. Louis and Pittsburgh have been playing out of their minds, and they are only a handful of games over .500. I think that 87 or 88 wins will take it. I also think that Cincy will end up to be the main hurdle.

Not to mention Pittsburgh's post break start is absolutely BRUTAL. They open vs the astros, then it's nothing but Reds, Cards Braves and Phillies to end the month. In august they also have a 3 week stretch of Brewers/reds/Cards/SF again. I think they are out of it before september rolls around.

[Ennder]

My money is still on the Pirates ending up under .500. The pitching just isn't there yet and the team is overachieving.

 

Some team will step up and win 88+ games. Brewers are certainly as likely as anyone else to do it.

[TheCrew]

Not to mention Pittsburgh's post break start is absolutely BRUTAL. They open vs the astros, then it's nothing but Reds, Cards Braves and Phillies to end the month. In august they also have a 3 week stretch of Brewers/reds/Cards/SF again. I think they are out of it before september rolls around.

They are a combined 7-2 against the Reds/Cards this year. They have to feel pretty confident going into all of those games (which accounts for half of what you listed). I just hope the Brewers can keep up the dominance against them. Keep in mind they've had some key injuries with Alvarez and Tabata - If no one pulls away in the central, I could see them trying to make a big splash and going for it. Their starting staff is due for regression, I just can't see Karstens keeping an ERA under 3 for example - but I still think it's too soon to just write them off.

[dlk9s]

That 11-game road trip to start the second half scares the bejeezus out of me. If we can avoid completely crapping the bed there, I like our chances.

[Invader3K]

My money is still on the Pirates ending up under .500. The pitching just isn't there yet and the team is overachieving.

 

Some team will step up and win 88+ games. Brewers are certainly as likely as anyone else to do it.

My prediction at the beginning of the year was that the Brewers would win 88 games, and I think that could be enough to win the division at this point.

[jhart05]

I agree with "dlk9s".

 

I almost think the season depends on the upcoming road trip. If they can come out of that still in first place they will win the division.

 

If they are a game or two out, they can still take it.

 

If they tank and end up behind the Cards, Reds, and Pirates. It's going to be very, very, very tough. And, I wouldn't put money on their chances.

[rluzinski]

The Pirates don't look like much of a threat on paper if you consider more than just the 2011 results:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

They have the Cards taking the division with 87 wins but with the Brewers, Reds and Pirates also in the mix, there is a decent chance someone will finish with more than 87 wins. As is often the case, the team that wins it will have probably over performed a bit, relative to their actual talent.

 

BP playoff odds methodology:

 

http://www.baseballprospe...icle.php?articleid=13040

[patrickgpe]

i think we need to wait until july 31st to estimate what it will take. I wouldn't be surprised if the pirates made a big splash at the trade deadline if they continue to play well since they haven't even been above 500 in 19 years. The Cards always looks to improve at the deadline. I'd love to see the brewers get a relief pitcher atleast but understand that they really have 2 pitchers that any team would be interested in getting and you need to have some prospect pitchers in your system.

[ecjimg]

25-9 at home (doable at their current pace)

16-20 on the road (might be tough given our struggles against even mediocre teams in the road)

 

Thoughts?

I really dont think they can keep up that home pace. They are going to have to do better than 16-20 on the road to win it.

 

 

[brwrsfan]

To me it's pretty simple. If we can play over .500 on the road, we're in a very good spot. This seems far fetched though given our problems on the road, even against bad teams.

 

The first 11 games on the road are going to be really tough, if they can go 5-6 or better on that trip and somehow remain near first place.....it could be trouble for everyone else in the division.

[rluzinski]

25-9 at home (doable at their current pace)

16-20 on the road (might be tough given our struggles against even mediocre teams in the road)

 

Thoughts?

I really dont think they can keep up that home pace. They are going to have to do better than 16-20 on the road to win it.

 

Right, there's little reason to expect the Brewers to continue to over perform at home and under perform on the road. If we think the Brewers are a true 90 win team (my guess is closer to 86-87 but...), we would expect them to finish about 39-31. Assuming an average home win% of 54%, that's about 20-14 at home and 19-17 on the road. Of course, that's ignoring strength of schedule home and away.

[brewmann04]

Their abilty to win on the road is going to either make them a divison winner or another dissapointing season.

[RockCoCougars]

To me it's pretty simple. If we can play over .500 on the road, we're in a very good spot.

I think you hit the mark with this. I don't think that they can sustain the home winning pct., but I don't think they should be as horrible on the road as they've been, either.

[rluzinski]

Their abilty to win on the road is going to either make them a divison winner or another dissapointing season.

That only presumes that the Brewers continue to destroy opponents at home, which isn't realistic. As my previous post showed, if the Brewers play at a 90 win pace for the rest of the year and have an average home/road split, they'll be expected to have a 19-17 road record but still only 88 wins overall. That might give them a coin flip chance at winning the division?

[Tbadder]

I think its going to come down to staying healthy. With almost no trading chips to improve the team, we've got to retain our health. I agree that the upcoming road trip will be important. If they can go 4-7 or 5-6 I think it'll keep their attitude stable. I also agree that they can't keep playing so well at home and so poorly on the road. The offense should remain very inconsistent with so many black holes in the bottom half of the line up. So that leaves it to the starting rotation to see us through. If Narveson can show just a little improvement and Greinke can work things out, if Wolf can keep his season going and Gallardo goes to his change up more often, then we'll minimize the cosmological destructive force that is our infield defense and bullpen. In that case I can even see the Crew pulling away for a bit, maybe winning the division by 5 games or so. Go Crew!

[fondybrewfan]

Personally I think 88 wins will win the division.

 

However; of the three teams that are within 1 game of 1st place; the Brewers have the best makeup to have a monster 2nd half. Even moreso if Doug can find a solution to the SS and 3B problems.

 

They play STL and PIT a ton in the 2nd half; I really believe the Brewers are in the drivers seat.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think it all depends on upgrades at short and third.

Post All Star Greinke needs to be significantly better than pre All Star Greinke. If that happens, it lessens the need for improvement at those two spots.

[HiAndTight]

I think its going to come down to staying healthy. With almost no trading chips to improve the team, we've got to retain our health. I agree that the upcoming road trip will be important. If they can go 4-7 or 5-6 I think it'll keep their attitude stable. I also agree that they can't keep playing so well at home and so poorly on the road. The offense should remain very inconsistent with so many black holes in the bottom half of the line up. So that leaves it to the starting rotation to see us through. If Narveson can show just a little improvement and Greinke can work things out, if Wolf can keep his season going and Gallardo goes to his change up more often, then we'll minimize the cosmological destructive force that is our infield defense and bullpen. In that case I can even see the Crew pulling away for a bit, maybe winning the division by 5 games or so. Go Crew!

We've got plenty of trade chips to improve our team. We're not going to be, and don't need to trade for Jose Reyes, as such, we don't need blue chip prospects.

 

We've got plenty of chips to trade for Jamey Carroll types...which is really all this team needs.