2013-04-14 Brewers (Estrada) at Cardinals (Garcia), 1:15 PM CDT [Brewers score, come back, go ahead, save and win, 4-3, 10 innings]

[topper09er]

Wear it Jean

[dlk9s]

Nice hole open between 1st and 2nd.

[Raw Biz]

Anyone who says Roenicke is a good manager need only look at that failed bunt attempt.

[topper09er]

Great effort Yuni, is this bar league softball

[topper09er]

You know the bunt was bad when Bill strongly disagrees with it

[SRB]

I guess that's better than a double play?

 

...

[TURBO]

Anyone who says Roenicke is a good manager need only look at that failed bunt attempt.

 

Not to mention, the failed 1st attempt, then he tries it again?

 

DUMB.

[Hitman_Hart]

At the very least Yuni should've Pete Rosed Molina.

[TURBO]

They should walk Braun here... Anti-clutch won't get the job done, they know that much.

[Gobias Industries]

I don't see how Braun gets anything to hit here.

[dlk9s]

Great effort Yuni, is this bar league softball

I suppose one may question the decision to break for home (though I can see why he'd think the ball was going to get past the pitcher), but I didn't see a lack of effort. He was out by a mile - I'm not going to ask him to try to plow through Molina.

[topper09er]

This should be one of those Andre Dawson "Im a run producer, Im not up there to walk" situations for Braun. Id rather have Braun chase a pitch then leave it up to Weeks

[dlk9s]

Rats. He hit it hard.

[pebadger]

So what is the probablility of scoring at least 1 run with runners on the corners and nobody out?

[BuckyBrewer61]

This is not funny anymore

[Gobias Industries]

Well that was ballsy.

 

I suppose they just wanted no part of Mr. Clutch on deck.

[topper09er]

Great effort Yuni, is this bar league softball

I suppose one may question the decision to break for home (though I can see why he'd think the ball was going to get past the pitcher), but I didn't see a lack of effort. He was out by a mile - I'm not going to ask him to try to plow through Molina.

 

Well I at least want a slide or get into a run down. In major league baseball it is unacceptable to stop running and allow a tag at home if you are the winning run in the 9th

[AZBrewCrew]

Thanks Ron.

[SRB]

Brewers didn't want to score the winning run there. Easier just to rely on our [sarcasm]amazing bullpen[/sarcasm] to hold the tie a little bit longer!

[rluzinski]

That is not some fact, it is your opinion. I am sure you have heard me say this before, but you cannot treat human beings as independent variables. Baseball is not roulette, previous results DO impact future results.

 

Of course you should expect long term behavior ON AVERAGE, but a true strategist can make the call when you should go against the average, because the last time I checked there are no probabilities in baseball that = 1.0. There are times when the average doesn't occur, if you don't try to account for these rare times you will not maximize the number of times you are right.

 

The facts show that that cold streaks aren't predictive on average. Again, managers aren't just intentionally walking Braun on every PA because they don't expect the batters following him in the lineup to continue to struggle. They are forced to assume guys like Weeks and Lucroy are going to hit close to their career averages because they have no evidence to the contrary. I'm sure that managers will chase hunches from time to time but that's what it is, a hunch. If you can consistently identify when a cold streak is "real" and not just noise, you should be a major league manager because that would be quite the skill.

[pebadger]

While the scoreless streak is mercifully over, at the end of this inning the Brewers will have gone 30 innings without holding the lead at the end of the inning.

[TURBO]

RRR saving Axford for the save chance...

[topper09er]

Well I should be a major league manager, unfortunately the only way to get that job is to have some experience as a major league player or at least high minors.

 

I of course mostly agree with you I just think there are times to increase your chances by not always playing the straight up odds.

[sdcheezhd]

So what is the probablility of scoring at least 1 run with runners on the corners and nobody out?

 

According to fangraphs it's over 90 percent. But fangraphs assumes you won't give away one of the outs for no reason at all.

[rluzinski]

I can't even get angry with RR for calling bunts in that in that situation... I just expect that silliness from him and apparently Melvin and all the top brass find it acceptable, so whatever. The Brewers got what they deserved there.