FanGraphs 2021 Trade Value Series

[sveumrules]

In advance of the approaching trade deadline, FanGraphs is publishing their annual Trade Value Series, with the first installment (Intro & Honorable Mentions) published today...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-trade-value-intro-and-honorable-mentions/

 

Last year the Brewers had Hiura (#46), Woody (#28) and Yelich (#15) cracking the list.

 

Hiura & Yelich both fell off the list this year, though have to imagine Woodruff moves up a bit while Corbin & Freddy will be new additions.

 

Adames made honorable mention in 2020 so he is another possibility.

 

Don't believe any reliever has ever made the list, so probably no Hader.

[Eye Black]

One of my favorite series of articles each year.

 

They released #41-50, FanGraphs Trade Value: #41 to #50

 

They have Freddy Peralta at #43 and mentioned that he’d be much a higher with a little longer track record of what he’s doing right now.

 

I know bringing up the Baseball Trade Values website is apparently upsetting for some folks, but as a comparison they currently have Woodruff and Burnes as having the 8th and 10th highest trade values in all of baseball, respectively, while they have Peralta as the 19th highest trade value in MLB. Adames and Hader are both outside the top 100 for BTV.

 

One thing that’s sort of incredible about the BTV top twelve trade values is that 8 of those 12 players are on just four teams, the Braves (Acuna at #2 and Albies at #4), Blue Jays (Vlad at #5 and Bichette at #7), Brewers (Woodruff at #8 and Burnes at #10), and Dodgers (Buehler at #11, Smith at #12). The Brewers and Braves are the only teams with three players in the top 20.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

One of my favorite series of articles each year.

 

They released #41-50, FanGraphs Trade Value: #41 to #50

 

They have Freddy Peralta at #43 and mentioned that he’d be much a higher with a little longer track record of what he’s doing right now.

 

I know bringing up the Baseball Trade Values website is apparently upsetting for some folks, but as a comparison they currently have Woodruff and Burnes as having the 8th and 10th highest trade values in all of baseball, respectively, while they have Peralta at the 19th highest trade value in MLB. Adames and Hader are both outside the top 100 for BTV.

 

How much did they drop Adames's value after he was traded to the Brewers? (half blue?)

[endaround]

Thy may have since dropped Adames' value some since he was traded for some bullpen arms. I mean it is a pretty big data point on his perceived value.

 

Fangraphs also has an article on replacement level killers talking about 1B today. You'll never guess which team shows up!

[Eye Black]

How much did they drop Adames's value after he was traded to the Brewers? (half blue?)

His median trade value was listed at 26.0 the day the trade was made and is listed at 26.8 currently. So a very modest rise so far.

[adambr2]

Thy may have since dropped Adames' value some since he was traded for some bullpen arms. I mean it is a pretty big data point on his perceived value.

 

Fangraphs also has an article on replacement level killers talking about 1B today. You'll never guess which team shows up!

 

I never understood why people (not referring to RRB here, just in general), become upset when an adjustment is made to a player's perceived trade value based on the results of an actual trade. It is essentially the same as any free market system. When the results of an actual transaction are less (or more) than an estimated book value, there is an adjustment to that book value in response. It is not about being right or wrong. It is a correction to blue book value as a result of real world data.

[adambr2]

How much did they drop Adames's value after he was traded to the Brewers? (half blue?)

His median trade value was listed at 26.0 the day the trade was made and is listed at 26.8 currently. So a very modest rise so far.

 

Right, but I'm sure there was an initial drop of some kind and the regaining of the value since then has been in response to his performance.

 

Still likely he is undervalued and it will continue to climb.

[MrTPlush]

Thy may have since dropped Adames' value some since he was traded for some bullpen arms. I mean it is a pretty big data point on his perceived value.

 

Fangraphs also has an article on replacement level killers talking about 1B today. You'll never guess which team shows up!

 

I never understood why people (not referring to RRB here, just in general), become upset when an adjustment is made to a player's perceived trade value based on the results of an actual trade. It is essentially the same as any free market system. When the results of an actual transaction are less (or more) than an estimated book value, there is an adjustment to that book value in response. It is not about being right or wrong. It is a correction to blue book value as a result of real world data.

 

Because many decided it was dumb instantly and fail to understand how it works and taking it for what it is. It could prove brilliantly accurate and those people would still hate it.

 

Its like posters thinking Stearns sucks or the Brewers are doing something wrong no matter what happens. People would rather dissappear when things don't look like their comments/predictions than look at something differently.

[sveumrules]

Woodruff (#19) & Burnes (#14) check in on today's installment of the FG Trade Value series...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-trade-value-11-to-20/

[umphrey]

I don’t get the Cole ranking. How much surplus value can he have a few years into that mega contract?

[JosephC]

I don’t get the Cole ranking. How much surplus value can he have a few years into that mega contract?

 

I've always been a big fan of this series, but this year's list is nearly complete garbage once you get past the top few names on the list. At least as a Brewer fan, I can say that they probably got the 3 pitchers in just the right area. But there is definitely a big market suck-up bias happening here.

 

By their own numbers, Julio Urias is good for +6.6 WAR total in arbitration years 3 and 4. He is #29 on the list. Freddy Peralta is good for +7.0 over the same time-frame at a total cost of 6.2 million, a complete bargain for that level of production. After that the team is on the hook for another 3+ WAR season at a bargain price at that level of production. Maybe it's Urias' extensive injury history that gives him the edge here? Or maybe it's because he's a Dodger? I've been a big Alex Verdugo supporter in the past. But they have him as being worth 8.1 WAR over the next three years, and while that is really solid it's certainly not elite. Generally using the surplus value formula = 8.1 million * 9 = 72.9 million minus what is estimated to be about 24 million in arbitration earnings = 48.9 million in surplus value. Roughly speaking, that translates to a hitter ranked #42 on the top 100 prospect list or a pitcher ranked #24 on the list. Safely speaking, the top 15 minor leaguers should all be ranked ahead of Verdugo. But sticking to names on the list, Verdugo's 8.1 WAR over three years ranks him only one spot behind Trent Grisham's 15.8 WAR over 4 years...and one of Grisham's season will come in at just above the minimum salary. Yeah, I know I should have picked someone below Verdugo, but he and Grisham sitting right next to each other was just too glaring to ignore. If you want to go pick someone below Verdugo that should be ranked higher, just go to the list, look at Fangraph's own projections in the table, and you'll find a whole bunch within seconds. This, of course, would have nothing to do with the fact that Verdugo plays for the Red Sox. And Gerritt Cole...don't get me started. We've seen these types of contracts traded before, and history has shown time and time again that what the team gets back is nothing more than a few spare parts when moving this type of contract. But history doesn't matter when it's a Yankee.

[Oxy]

I don’t get the Cole ranking. How much surplus value can he have a few years into that mega contract?

 

I've always been a big fan of this series, but this year's list is nearly complete garbage once you get past the top few names on the list. At least as a Brewer fan, I can say that they probably got the 3 pitchers in just the right area. But there is definitely a big market suck-up bias happening here.

 

By their own numbers, Julio Urias is good for +6.6 WAR total in arbitration years 3 and 4. He is #29 on the list. Freddy Peralta is good for +7.0 over the same time-frame at a total cost of 6.2 million, a complete bargain for that level of production. After that the team is on the hook for another 3+ WAR season at a bargain price at that level of production. Maybe it's Urias' extensive injury history that gives him the edge here? Or maybe it's because he's a Dodger? I've been a big Alex Verdugo supporter in the past. But they have him as being worth 8.1 WAR over the next three years, and while that is really solid it's certainly not elite. Generally using the surplus value formula = 8.1 million * 9 = 72.9 million minus what is estimated to be about 24 million in arbitration earnings = 48.9 million in surplus value. Roughly speaking, that translates to a hitter ranked #42 on the top 100 prospect list or a pitcher ranked #24 on the list. Safely speaking, the top 15 minor leaguers should all be ranked ahead of Verdugo. But sticking to names on the list, Verdugo's 8.1 WAR over three years ranks him only one spot behind Trent Grisham's 15.8 WAR over 4 years...and one of Grisham's season will come in at just above the minimum salary. Yeah, I know I should have picked someone below Verdugo, but he and Grisham sitting right next to each other was just too glaring to ignore. If you want to go pick someone below Verdugo that should be ranked higher, just go to the list, look at Fangraph's own projections in the table, and you'll find a whole bunch within seconds. This, of course, would have nothing to do with the fact that Verdugo plays for the Red Sox. And Gerritt Cole...don't get me started. We've seen these types of contracts traded before, and history has shown time and time again that what the team gets back is nothing more than a few spare parts when moving this type of contract. But history doesn't matter when it's a Yankee.

 

This is great. Even FanGraphs is not immune to "market forces?"