JosephC

I was just speculating on the unknown incentives, and would think that would have to be largely tied to snap count (or snap count percentages). I had to look at recent Packer history and see what would reasonable numbers be to have snap count percentages tied to incentives for WRs. Over the last five years, the Packers top WR in snap percentage averaged 74.556 of the offensive snaps played. I thought that seemed pretty low for what should be the best receiver on the team. Snap percentage played by #2 = 53.83%, snap percentage played by #3 = 44.546. The Vikings have Jefferson and Addison, and I am pretty sure every Packer fan who still has at least one functioning brain cell will acknowledge that Jefferson is a better receiver than anyone the Packers have had recently and Addison isn't chopped liver. Same numbers for the Vikings averaged over the last five years. Top receiver snap percentage = 90.16, #2 = 74.97, #3 = 61.352. Granted, when you get down to #3 and #4, those numbers could be influenced by how much an extra tight end gets into the game. But I thought the difference in snap percentages between the most played WR (90.16 versus 74.556) and the second most played WR (74.97 versus 53.83) were pretty striking. Just to throw in a couple more numbers, DJ Moore, who didn't have all that great of a year in 2025, played in 84.84 of the Bears offensive snaps. For the amount of draft picks Gutekunst has thrown into the wide receiver position, he sure has ended up with alot of decent-but-not-great talent. Hopefully Watson can finally stay healthy or Golden turns out to be a hit. To grab some more numbers, DJ Moore, who didn't have all that great of a year in 2025, played in 84.84% of the Bears snaps. For the 2025 Lions, Jameson Williams = 90.26% and Amon-Ra St. Brown = 85.44%.

Overthecap have posted the numbers, and according to them it is a 4 year, 92 million dollar contract that can be worth the 110+ million if incentives are reached. Those incentives would be beyond the 2.125 million dollar per year roster bonuses that are routinely built into Packer contracts. Cap-wise, it's a cheap deal for the Packers in 2026 and 2027 with cap numbers of roughly 10.5 and 11.5 million respectively. 2028 has a low base salary of only 1.5 million, but there is a 13 million dollar roster bonus due on March 13. So that is a key date. If Watson has significant injury issues in 2026/2027 and the Packers feel they need to move on, and he becomes a designated post June 1 cut for the Packers prior to 2028, the cap numbers for 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 would end up being roughly 10.5 million, 11.5 million, 7.4 million and 13.6 million (and then whatever unknown incentive that may be reached). Curently the cap numbers are (without the unknown incentives) 2026 = 10,519,297 2027 = 11,538,415 2028 = 24,538,415 2029 = 29,163,418 2030 = 26,200,000

Fickell is a dead man walking. There was some hope that, with the weak schedule, the Badgers could be an 8 or maybe even 9 win team in 2026. After the spring practice reports, the same people are now thinking 6 wins and maybe push that to 7 if they get a weak bowl matchup. Even with a 7-6 record, that would bring Fickell's record at Wisconsin to a pitiful 24-27. A new AD will want to hire "their guy" anyway, and a 7-6, 24-27 record will not be nearly enough to save Fickell. Not to just dump on Fickell, as it is pretty obvious at this point that 75% of the problem was idiot Chris McIntosh and 25% Fickell. But that said, there has been nothing to indicate that Fickell is a Big 10 level coach. He looks like a mid-major coach that recruits mid-major players and hires mid-major assistant coaches. What do you know, the 6-7 record he had as Ohio State's head coach doesn't look like a fluke after all. And as far as celebrating high school commits in June, what a joke after what happened last year. Do the names Jayden Petit and Amari Latimer ring any bells? Even Latimer's "replacement," Qwantavius Wiggins, never made it to campus and will not be playing for the Badgers. I can see getting excited about some of the in-state players that commit, but a June verbal from anybody else is completely worthless.

If Garrett doesn't start crying about a new contract in a month, which he probably will, then IMO this is nearly a bargain trade for the Rams..and I really like Verse. Overthecap has Garrett counting 9.16 million against the Ram's cap in 2026, 16.05 million in 2027 and 21.4 million in 2028. 2029 has a 22 million dollar option, so the contract was set up where 2029 would be the new contract year if Garrett is still playing at a high level. But to have him that cheap for three years is a very, very positive aspect of the trade for the Rams. Too bad for them he will likely start crying that the 150 million he's already made just isn't enough, and they will lose one of the best aspects of this trade when they hand him a big, fat new contract.

Sorsby claiming he never bet against Indiana while he was on the team. Now it's come to light that he did bet on the under for Indiana passing yards in a game in 2022, and bet on the under for the first half in an Indiana game in September of 2023. Looks like he was playing in September 2023- https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/brendan-sorsby-1/gamelog/2023/ Texas Tech, talk about an institution with no integrity whatsoever. Absolutely none.

I think they are fine on defense, but agree that they are very thin at almost every spot on offense. I see significant depth issues at RB, TE, OLine and then they didn't backfill the hole at WR after the Wicks trade. They lost Rasheed Walker, Romeo Doubs, Elgton Jenkins, Malik Willis, Dontayvion Wicks and Emanuel Wilson on offense. They have added Tyrod Taylor, Jager Burton and Skyy Moore on offense...that's if you want to even count Moore, which I wouldn't since his addition was about 95% special teams and 5% offense.

https://lookup-inmate-jail.browncountywi.gov:8443/IML

I'm not even sure Red Auerbach in his prime could put together a .500+ team with a doofus extraordinaire owner like Jimmy Haslan being involved. This is old news by now, but if anyone wants to get really depressed- https://www.profootballrumors.com/2026/05/jimmy-haslam-played-active-role-in-browns-2022-deshaun-watson-trade

At this time last year, the QBs that were getting the most hype as top picks in the 2026 draft would have been ranked something like - LaNorris Sellers / Garrett Nussmeier / Nico Iamaleava / Cade Klubnik / Drew Allar / Carson Beck. Sellers a top 10 pick, and possible #1 overall pick. Nussmeier/Iamaleava likely mid to late first rounders. Klubnik a borderline first rounder. Allar a second rounder. Beck a late second/early third rounder. As it turns out, Sellers and Iamaleava not good enough to enter the 2026 draft. At least Sellers is still a name, Iamaleava seems to have dropped from the face of the planet. Beck and Allar got themselves into round three, Beck being the only guy on the list of 6 to get drafted where he was figured to be draft a year ahead, and give credit to Allar for being in the ballpark. Based on that very recent history, someone could put a 2nd round grade on Sorsby and someone else could put a undrafted grade on Sorsby...and I would not argue with either. Who knows? I don't know how easily the NFL will look past the gambling thing. I think most teams will probably look at the rehab aspect with much skepticism. It's been a long time, but it's a pretty safe bet that the name Art Schlichter has not been forgotten. Pretty decent chance that Sorsby is fighting so hard to regain eligiblity because the NFL has given him the "we are not all that interested" vibes. It's worth noting that the last Packers supplemental pick was Mike Wahle who was a big hit. That was all the way back in 1998. Since that time, there has only been 16 players picked in a supplemental draft. Last one was S-Jalen Thompson all the way back in 2019, and he's been an 87 game starter so far in his NFL career. As a 5th rounder, he's an obvious hit as well. Lots of names on the supplemental draft list that have gone nowhere, but there are a few keepers mixed in there.

I don't think it's as much about the 1 million dollars as it was about dumping McManus when they did. Once he's paid the 1 million dollars, why not keep him through training camp and make Smack earn his spot? Gutekunst has drafted 1 kicker previously. That player was a bust. Of the last five kickers the Packers have drafted, they've had 2 hits and 3 misses, a 40% success rate. Smack was the 216th player drafted. In the last 5 years, there have been 10 kickers that were drafted higher than #216. Of those 10 kickers, only 5 are still with the team that drafted them. The last draft that didn't have at least 1 kicker drafted higher than #216 was in 2015 (no kickers drafted at all that season). Smack is no lock to be a good NFL kicker. Why be so confident in a completely unproven player? Is 2024 so long ago that Gutekunst has completely forgotten what happened? What sense does it make to pay McManus an extra 1 million dollars, and then dump him months away from training camp before allowing him to compete for the job?

The savings might only be 2.6 million for this year. Over the cap had him with a $5,278,431 cap number for 2026. A pre-June 1 release would have been a $4,333,334 cap charge in 2026, and a $0 cap charge in 2027. A roughly 945k cap savings in 2026. Over the cap has the post-June 1 release as carrying a $2,666,666 cap charge in 2026 (a roughly 2.611 million dollar cap savings) and a $1,666,668 cap charge in 2027. It all depend on, by rule, if that 1 million roster bonus goes on this year's cap or next year's cap, and I don't know exactly how that works. The only other dead money on the 2027 cap is Nate Hobbs 8 million.

The bigger favor was giving him 1 million dollars for nothing.

Looks like I was wrong on my kicker prediction already. McManus cut. LOL, pay him a roster bonus and then release him months before the season.

Best guess at 53-man roster with current players under contract/drafted- QB (2) - Jordan Love, Tyrod Taylor I don't see them keeping three. RB (3) - Josh Jacobs, MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks Pretty thin at RB considering Lloyd's injury history. WR (6) - Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, Savion Williams, Bo Melton, Skyy Moore Another thin group. Melton is a clubhouse guy/coaches favorite, so it's hard to think he'll get kicked off the roster. I'd feel better if I had faith in Williams, but I do not. Another injury to Watson really sinks this group unless Golden really emerges and turns out to be a 1200+ yard, 8+ touchdown player. TE (3) - Tucker Kraft, Luke Musgrave, Josh Whyle NFL standard is now four tight ends on the roster, but I can't find any more than three. Absolute prove-it year for Musgrave, and I'm not sure if Whyle is really anything more than practice squad material. I'm definitely anticipating at least one more player will be added to this group. OL (9) - Jordan Morgan, Aaron Banks, Sean Rhyan, Anthony Belton, Zach Tom, Darian Kinnard, Jacob Monk, Jager Burton, Travis Glover I would think Monk would be one of the first guys off, but Gutekunst mentioned him during a recent press conference, so that is an indicator they still believe in him and he could stick. Glover/Jennings/Williams, it could be any of them, but since Glover has the most NFL game experience, I'll guess he sticks. Like TE, I think this is a group where they will probably add another player. EDGE (6) - Micah Parsons, Lukas Van Ness, Barryn Sorrell, Dani Dennis-Sutton, Brenton Cox Jr,, Collin Oliver Hopefully they can pull a second really legitimate starter out of this group. But in terms of numbers, this may be the deepest group on the team. DL (5) - Devonte Wyatt, Javon Hargrave, Chris McClellan, Karl Brooks, Warren Brinson Another deep group. LB (5) - Edgerrin Cooper, Zaire Franklin, Isaiah McDuffie, Ty'Ron Hopper, Nick Neimann Swap Franklin in for Walker, overall I would anticipate about the same performance out of this group as they got last year. CB (6) - Keisean Nixon, Carrington Valentine, Benjamin St-Juste, Brandon Cisse, Domani Jackson, Kamal Hadden S (4) - Xavier McKinney, Evan Williams, Javon Bullard, Kitan Oladapo Maybe safety Johnathan Baldwin beats out Kamal Haden for the 10th DB spot, but for now I'd guess Hadden sticks. K (2) - Brandon McManus, Trey Smack Best guess is both look about equal at the end of the pre-season, and the Packers chicken out and don't just go with Smack, but instead keep both. P (1) - Daniel Whelan LS (1) - Matt Orzech Defensive side of the ball looking alright. I really dislike the depth on the offensive side of the ball though. NFL standard seems to have evolved to 25 offense, 25 defense, 3 special teams, and I only included 23 offensive players and many of those I do not have much confidence in.