sveumrules

Sometimes it’s better to score last than first.

The Brewers are 11 W - 6 L in their last 17 games so their opponent scoring first in 13 of those games hasn't really slowed them down too much. During one of the recent Apple TV games they mentioned the Brewers were the only team in MLB with a winning record when their opponent scores first. I thought that was a pretty telling tidbit as to the quality of team we've been witnessing this season.

Could just be Jett's recent injury (or maybe teams interested in trading for Luke at the deadline want to see what he looks like there) but Adams has started his last four games at 3B in Nashville. Before that he was at 1B (x13) 3B (x10) DH (x8) since returning from injury on 05/26.

It's pretty wild, really. On May 26th the Cubs lost their 10th game in a row dropping them to last place in the NLC with a 29 W - 26 L record, 4.5 games behind the Brewers. Since then their 26 W - 17 L record is tied for 5th/6th in MLB with the Marlins. The Brewers have gone an MLB best 29 W - 17 L over that same stretch to increase their division lead to the current 6.0 games. During that stretch Cubs pitchers have a 106 ERA- (19th) and 125 FIP- (29th) while their batters have posted a 117 wRC+ (2nd) scoring 5.51 R/G (3rd). During that same stretch Brewers pitchers are at a 91 ERA- (7th) and 92 FIP- (4th) while their batters have posted a 112 wRC+ (8th) scoring 5.26 R/G (5th).

Using the BF Top 20 for reference, right now I wouldn't slot either of Ebel the Younger or Strosnider ahead of Ebel the Elder at #15. Pratt and Lara should be graduating soon which will open a couple spots (plus whoever gets dealt twixt now and the deadline), but I'd also guess that most will have Frias (currently #18) and probably should have Knoth (currently outside the Top 20) ranked ahead of this year's top two picks in the next round of voting as well.

During innings one through five the Brewers have scored 261 runs (9th) and allowed 194 runs (2nd) for a +67 differential. During innings six onward the Brewers have scored 238 runs (1st) and allowed 176 runs (9th) for a +62 run differential. Pretty even up overall, guess it just depends on if you prefer run scoring or run prevention. The Cubs are currently fifth in MLB with a +53 run differential for all of their innings.

Is that 43.8 K% really promotion worthy or are they short on bodies in Wilson?

Made (350 PA) 274/349/439 (108 wRC+) 10.3 BB% | 14.9 K% Chourio (351 PA) 269/322/441 (98 wRC+) 6.6 BB% | 20.2 K% Not quite a one to one comparison as Chourio had to deal with the experimental pre-tacked baseballs they used for the first half of 2023 before switching back to regular balls in the second half (which more or less coincided with Jackson's July surge that year).

Looks like Leonard peaked around May 12th at 140 PA of 350/432/608 (171 wRC+) with a 9.3 BB% and 16.4 K% under the hood (along with a .391 BABIP) Since then he had 148 PA of 229/313/405 (87 wRC+) with a 10.1 BB% and 21.6 K% under the hood (along with a .258 BABIP). Greg Jones only got 2 PA during his last brief call up so not sure what difference it really would have made when Leonard had already been pretty unimpressive for the last two months now.

CJ Hughes is running a 43.8 K% on the Complex. Out of 1,563 minor leaguers with at least 150 PA this year that ranks 1,556th. Might be a candidate to repeat Arizona if he can't bring that down quite a bit. Brady got 16 games / 66 PA in Carolina after signing in 2025, would guess the plan is similar for Trey this year to get some exposure to Wilson after a brief stay on the Complex.

Brewers batters have the fewest challenges at 66 (26 by Sanchez alone) and the lowest run value on challenges a +4.7 runs. For a sense of scale MIN is 1st at 125 challenges and CIN is 1st at +12.4 runs to this point. On the flip side the catchers are at 148 challenges behind the plate (3rd) for +7.8 runs (6th). Contreras has 111 pitches challenged (1st) for +5.4 runs (5th) individually. Could be a matter of the team strategy to this point being something along the lines of save the challenges for the catchers behind the dish to aid in the run prevention and only use them at the plate if you feel the call is particularly egregious in a leverage spot (or are Gary Sanchez).

950K was his first year Arby's salary on account of all the time lost to injury. MLB minimum is 780K.

Going back to 2024 Adamczewski has 792 PA with a strong 16.0 BB% | 18.2 K% while he has gotten more of his ball in play value from a .383 BABIP (11th of 1,083 minor leaguers with at least 700 PA since 2024) versus his .189 Isolated Slugging (178th). When Josh first started breaking out my first thought for a comp as a short lefty hitting 2B who might be bound for LF was something like Scooter Gennett during his two year breakout with the Reds where he had 1,135 PA of 71 BB+ | 99 K+ | 118 AVG+ | 121 ISO+ for a 124 wRC+. Feel like that is pretty close, maybe a little hot on the AVG/ISO sides but Adamczewski will probably walk considerably more. Here are some guys in MLB from 2024 to present with at least 1,000 PA that might be along the lines of what Josh could provide... Ryan O'Hearn (1,377 PA | 124 wRC+) 113 BB+ | 82 K+ | 114 AVG+ | 107 ISO+ Jose Altuve (1,653 PA | 116 wRC+) 95 BB+ | 80 K+ | 113 AVG+ | 102 ISO+ Alec Burleson (1,539 PA | 117 wRC+) 80 BB+ | 63 K+ | 112 AVG+ | 107 ISO+ Spencer Horwtiz (1,087 PA | 126 wRC+) 136 BB+ | 76 K+ | 111 AVG+ | 107 ISO+ William Contreras (1,722 PA | 119 wRC+) 133 BB+ | 81 K+ | 111 AVG+ | 97 ISO+ Fernando Tatis Jr. (1,545 PA | 124 wRC+) 117 BB+ | 91 K+ | 111 AVG+ | 107 ISO+ Christian Yelich (1,235 PA | 124 wRC+) 125 BB+ | 112 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 113 ISO+ Gunnar Henderson (1,809 PA | 127 wRC+) 115 BB+ | 97 K+ | 109 AVG+ | 128 ISO+ Josh Naylor (1,626 PA | 116 wRC+) 99 BB+ | 65 K+ | 109 AVG+ | 108 ISO+ Cody Bellinger (1,628 PA | 117 wRC+) 111 BB+ | 65 K+ | 109 AVG+ | 114 ISO+ Bryan Reynolds (1,768 PA | 117 wRC+) 116 BB+ | 108 K+ | 108 AVG+ | 109 ISO+

Osiris Ramirez might be another guy along with Lovera to keep an eye after some of the bigger name, higher bonus guys... Diego Frontado (90 PA) 254/427/493 (126 wRC+) 20.0 BB% | 14.4 K% SS (10) 3B (5) 2B (2) Ricki Moneys (143 PA) 291/413/513 (119 wRC+) 16.1 BB% | 16.8 K% SS (19) 3B (5) Leanders Matos (123 PA) 314/407/629 (136 wRC+) 13.0 BB% | 15.4 K% 3B (17) 2B (11) Angeni Fernandez (133 PA) 345/451/482 (130 wRC+) 14.3 BB% | 12.8 K% CF (17) LF (6) 2B (5) Jose Rodriguez (140 PA) 293/407/422 (110 wRC+) 13.6 BB% | 16.4 K% SS (19) 3B (4) 2B (2) Osiris Ramirez (115 PA) 283/426/511 (124 wRC+) 16.5 BB% | 20.0 K% 2B (9) 3B (6) SS (5) Enrique Lovera (131 PA) 210/389/420 (102 wRC+) 21.4 BB% | 19.1 K% CF (21) RF (4)

There is no single move that can change the complexion of a series against the Dodgers. The Brewers could trade for Skubal, Chapman, and Zack Gelof and they would still be underdogs to the Dodgers.