sveumrules

Reminder that today is the last day to cast your Brewers Prospect ballot.

LAST DAY TO VOTE BUMP

I'd guess they go with Eduardo Garcia (better defense / positional versatility) if a move is needed.

It was one of the traditional power positions. From 2012 through 2022 league average wRC+ for 3B was 100 or higher every season, with seven of those 13 seasons at 105 or above. The last four seasons league average wRC+ for a 3B has been 96 or 97. Ten years ago when league average wRC+ for a 3B peaked at 107 there were guys like Arenado (696 PA of 126 wRC+), Kyle Seager (668 PA of 134 wRC+), Longoria (652 PA of 129 wRC+), Martin Prado (649 PA of 114 wRC+), Josh Donaldson (614 PA of 158 wRC+), Justin Turner (602 PA of 122 wRC+), Beltre (591 PA of 124 wRC+), and Machado (503 PA of 130 wRC+) among qualifiers. It's so long ago now that Nick Castellanos just missed qualifying at 3B with 439 PA of 121 wRC+. This year with a league average wRC+ for 3B at 97 the headliners are Junior Caminero (506 PA of 153 wRC+), Miguel Vargas (402 PA of 136 wRC+), Isaac Paredes (401 PA of 121 wRC+), Max Muncy (398 PA of 128 wRC+), Josh Jung (396 PA of 128 wRC+), and Nick Gonzalez (376 PA of 124 wRC+) as the only regular 3B above a 110 wRC+. Kevin McGonigle (227 PA of 141 wRC+) is a little further down in a multi positional role. Austin Riley has the 2nd most PA at 3B so far this year (466) with an 85 wRC+. Alec Bohm and his 424 PA (6th) of 72 wRC+ are dragging down the curve big time. Olds like Bregman (483 PA of 102 wRC+), Machado (433 PA of 104 wRC+), and Arenado (423 PA of 103 wRC+) are struggling to keep their heads above water. Matt Chapman (347 PA of 93 wRC+) and Bo Bichette (298 PA of 86 wRC+) are getting paid a lot of money to be underwater. Even the no doubt first ballot HOFer Jose Ramirez has had a down year with 291 PA of 109 wRC+. It might rebound to it's past glory yet, but as of now 3B is no more of a power position than CF (league average 96 wRC+ this year), or 2B (league average 96 wRC+ this year).

The first year I have memories of MLB are 1986...pulling an Earnie Riles in my first ever pack of Topps, being confused why Teddy Higuera would have to hit against Fernando Valenzuela in the All Star Game when he didn't even hit in his own regular season games, watching that grounder go through Buckner's legs. Turns out that was forty years ago now. In those forty years, 2026 Misio is one of 4,597 individual pitcher seasons of at least 120 IP. Some of his ranks on that leaderboard... 39 ERA- (4th) Only 2000 Pedro and 94/95 Madduxes are better. 48 FIP- (t-6th to 9th) Tied with 2000 Pedro, 2018 Sale, and 2022 Strider. 2021 Burnes is 2nd with a 38. 186 K%+ (18th) Misio's raw 40.6 K% is #1 on the list, but when we account for the rising K rate over time he gets passed by fifteen different Randy, Nolan, and Pedro seasons plus 1988 Clemens and 1998 Wood. .145 AVG and 60 AVG+ (both first) Second place in raw batting average allowed is 2021 Peralta at .164, 2000 Pedro just behind at .166. Even accounting for the fact that is harder than ever to get hits Misio still holds down the top spot in AVG+ just ahead of 2000 Pedro at 61. 0.73 WHIP (2nd) Just below 2016 Kershaw at 0.72 and just above 2000 Pedro at 0.74, the only three seasons in the sample below a 0.80 WHIP. All of the above has been greatly facilitated by Misio reigning in his walk rate from an 11.4 BB% in 2025 down to a 6.0 BB% so far this year.

Based on the latest attempt at prospect valuation over at FanGraphs a 65FV hitter like Made has $95M in expected surplus value versus 60FV pitchers like Anderson or Hernandez coming in at $70M. If one believes Anderson or Hernandez are in fact 65FV worthy then the numbers at FG come out even at $95M in expected surplus value. Think most teams would take Made over Anderson or Hernandez on account of the added pitcher injury risk, which the current evals at FG account for with Anderson and Hernandez half a grade lower.

Juan Ortuno (1.11 BB/K), the recently dealt Juan Martinez (1.30 BB/K), Luiyin Alastre (1.15 BB/K), Tyler Rodriguez (1.06 BB/K), Luis Lameda (0.88 BB/K) seem to be some of the stateside archetypes for what the Brewers are trying to develop on the Complex, especially among the lower dollar signings. Patient hitters that can work counts, play all over the diamond, and run the bases. Gotta figure that eventually one cracks through to MLB as a utility guy, but even if that never happens these are all great players to have in the system who help contribute to the winning happening throughout the minors despite running out the youngest teams at just about every level.

Obviously too early to draw any meaningful conclusions about how the trade deadline transpired until more time has passed, but winning their first three games afterward is certainly a good start. Was curious what the actual pre/post trade deadline numbers have been for the Brewers during this competetive window going back to 2017 so looked them up in case anyone else was wondering the same... 2017 pre (55 W - 52 L | .514 W%) post (31 W - 24 L | .564 W%) [nice fiddy point jump to kick things off] 2018 pre (63 W - 47 L | .573 W%) post (33 W - 20 L | .623 W%) [another nice fiddy point jump, Yelich going bonkers helped] 2019 pre (57 W - 52 L | .523 W%) post (32 W -21 L | .604 W%) [went on a September run even without bonkers Yelich] 2021 pre (62 W - 42 L | .596 W%) post (33 W - 25 L | .569 W%) [first dropper, but their .569 W% post deadline was a match for their overall .569 W% from 2018 to 2019 so could have just been some expected regression after a hot start] 2022 pre (57 W - 46 L | .553 W%) post (29 W - 30 L | .492 W%) [the deadline heard round the world, or at least throughout the state. Positives are it set things up nicely for the Contreras trade and was the last Stearns helmed deadline] 2017-22 Stearns Overall pre (294 W - 239 L | .552 W%) post (158 W - 120 L | .568 W%) [few early wins + couple late losses = marginal increase] 2023 pre (58 W - 50 L | .537 W%) post (34 W - 20 L | .630 W%) [first deadline was a good one for Arnold with almost a 100 point jump in W%] 2024 pre (61 W - 46 L | .570 W%) post (32 W - 23 L | .582 W%) [only a small increase but cruised to a ten game Division Win anyway] 2025 pre (64 W - 44 L | .593 W%) post (33 W - 21 L | .611 W%) [another small increase, with a steady upward progression underway including this year's 69 W - 43 L pre-deadline record for a .616 W%] So overall the ten year progression has gone from a .557 W% during the 2017 to 2022 stretch winning at least 86 games for each of Stearns five full seasons, to a .568 W% in Arnold's first full season with Counsell still around, to gradually increasing winning percentages from .570 to .616 over each of the last five pre/post deadline splits since Murphy took over as manager. After banking those first three post-deadline wins, need to finish at 28 W - 19 L or better over the remaining 47 games to keep the streak alive for a sixth consecutive increasing pre/post deadline W% split. Hit that 28 W - 19 L mark on the nose and they'd win a nice even 100 games.

With the Brewers once again finding themselves with the best record in MLB thought now might be as good a time as any for a quick little update with a couple of new and farther out endpoints added in... Last 89 (59 W - 30 L) 2nd BOS (53 W - 34 L) Last 115 (72 W - 43 L) 2nd ATL (70 W - 45 L) Last 231 (148 W - 83 L) 2nd LAD (133 W - 98 L) Last 277 (169 W - 108 L) 2nd LAD (162 W - 115 L) Last 439 (262 W - 177 L) 2nd LAD (260 W - 179 L) Last 486 (293 W - 193 L) 2nd LAD (294 W - 195 L) So best record in MLB for the season at the moment (L115), which combined with the best record in MLB last year gives us the best record over the last two years (L277), with that seven game margin enough cushion to give us the best record in MLB since Murphy took over (L439), and even going back to August 9th of 2023 covering three full seasons worth of games (L486).

37 Series Down, 15 Series Remain. So far the Brewers Series Record for the season is 25 W - 10 L - 2 T. Individual Series Results are... 3 W - 0 L (x7) 4 W - 1 L (x1) 3 W - 1 L (x2) 2 W - 1 L (x15) 2 W - 2 L (x1) 1 W - 1 L (x1) 1 W - 2 L (x8) 0 W - 3 L (x2) 32 of the Series have been of the standard three game variety with the Brewers sitting +15 Wins on Sweeps (21 W - 6 L) and +7 Wins on Splits (38 W - 31 L). For the five oddball series that were 2, 4, or 5 games long the Brewers have come out another +7 Wins ahead (13 W - 6 L). Since their six game and four game losing streaks between April 7th and April 25th the Brewers have lost two games in a row on eight different occasions answering back with a 6 W - 2 L record in the following third games minimizing prolonged losing streaks over these last 89 games en route to a 59 W - 30 L record (.663 W% | 107 Win full season pace) that is five games ahead of the Red Sox (5.5 games ahead of the Rays, 6.0 games ahead of the Phillies, 7.0 games ahead of the Braves, 7.5 games ahead of the Dodgers, 9.0 games ahead of the Cubs) for the best mark in MLB over that stretch. Even during these last almost two months now since June 9th where the offense has been closer to an average scoring unit than their Top Five seasonal ranking they've run off a 31 W - 20 L record good for a .608 W% and 98 Win full season pace. Meanwhile the Cubs have been playing way over their heads during that same stretch (3.79 ERA vs 4.67 xERA vs 4.80 FIP and .350 actual wOBA vs .317 xwOBA) yet have only managed to pick up 2.5 games with their corresponding 33 W - 17 L record.

Vlad Jr 2025 PostSeason 89 PA of 241 wRC+ Vlad Jr 2026 Season 456 PA of 95 wRC+ Barger 2025 PostSeason 68 PA of 188 wRC+ Barger2026 Season 28 PA of 1 wRC+ Clement 2025 PostSeason 77 PA of 171 wRC+ Clement 2026 Season 452 PA of 102 wRC+ Bichette 2025 PostSeason 27 PA of 165 wRC+ Bichette 2026 Season 492 PA of 86 wRC+ (on Mets) Springer 2025 PostSeason 75 PA of 147 wRC+ Springer 2026 Season 368 PA of 105 wRC+ Kirk 2025 PostSeason 83 PA of 132 wRC+ Kirk 2026 Season 153 PA of 87 wRC+ Schneider 2025 PostSeason 24 PA of 110 wRC+ Schneider 2026 Season 133 PA of 65 wRC+ If they didn't sign Okamoto (1.8 WAR leads their position players) and Cease (AL best 4.3 fWAR) in the offseason they might not even have fifty wins yet.

Chourio is one of an even fifty players to get at least 1,000 PA during their age 22 or younger seasons during the Thirty Team Era (1998 onward). Some of his current ranks on that leaderboard... 1,525 PA (14th) | 115 wRC+ (21st) | +8.4 BsR (13th) | 8.8 WAR (19th) 74 BB+ (38th) | 98 K+ (27th) | 111 AVG+ (16th) | 121 ISO+ (24th) By the end of the season he should surpass Ozzie Albies in 13th with 9.7 WAR but would need to go on a pretty insane heater to catch Julio Rodriguez in 12th with 11.6 WAR. Here are the three hitting profiles from the leaderboard that stood out to me as having the most similarities thru age 22, then how they did from 23 to 29... thru 22 Xander Bogaerts (1298 PA | 96 wRC+) 76 BB+ | 98 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 76 ISO+ 23 to 29 Xander Bogaerts (4091 PA | 124 wRC+) 113 BB+ | 82 K+ | 118 AVG+ | 109 ISO+ [Xander22 is about as close as it gets to Jackson in BB/K/AVG but had considerably less power. Xander29 figured out plate discipline, raising both his hit and damage frequency] thru 22 Manny Machado (1979 PA | 115 wRC+) 83 BB+ | 85 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 117 ISO+ 23 to 29 Manny Machado (4294 PA | 128 wRC+) 104 BB+ | 79 K+ | 112 AVG+ | 134 ISO+ [Manny22 probably has the closest overall line to Jackson stylistically. Manny29 also made plate discipline strides compared to his younger self which he leveraged into a nice ISO increase] thru 22 Rafael Devers (1432 PA | 114 wRC+) 86 BB+ | 94 K+ | 111 AVG+ | 123 ISO+ 23 to 29 Rafael Devers (4000 PA | 130 wRC+) 123 BB+ | 102 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 146 ISO+ [not the best physical comp, but the thru 22 performance is pretty spot on with Jackson before kicking up the BB and ISO through the rest of his twenties] Going back a little further couple two tree other possible comps could be... thru 22 Ted Simmons (1516 PA | 111 wRC+) 75 BB+ | 71 K+ | 112 AVG+ | 104 ISO+ 23 to 29 Ted Simmons (4352 PA | 129 wRC+) 118 BB+ | 49 K+ | 113 AVG+ | 135 ISO+ [Ted22 pretty close on BB/AVG with better K but not quite as much ISO as Jackson. Ted29 really figured out the plate discipline en route to more power output] thru 22 Roberto Alomar (1959 PA | 106 wRC+) 88 BB+ | 84 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 77 ISO+ 23 to 29 Roberto Alomar (4273 PA | 128 wRC+) 115 BB+ | 62 K+ | 117 AVG+ | 105 ISO+ [kind of a similar case as Xander where the BB/K/AVG are all in the ballpark of Jackson but not nearly as much pop. Roberto29 (stop me if you've heard this one before) leveraged his plate discipline gains to raising both his hit and damage frequency] thru 22 Robin Yount (2869 PA | 89 wRC+) 61 BB+ | 85 K+ | 104 AVG+ | 75 ISO+ 23 to 29 Robin Yount (4279 PA | 126 wRC+) 91 BB+ | 74 K+ | 111 AVG+ | 133 ISO+ [Robin22 was nowhere near the hitter Jackson has been in any regard (over almost twice as many PA) then made major improvements across the board (especially in the power department) through the rest of his twenties] Essentially it will boil down to how much Chourio can figure out some kind of consistent plate approach and how long it takes him to do so. To his credit, PCA has made those strides this season cutting down his Swing% and raising his BB% exponentially en route to career high BABIP and ISO marks.

Believe Naylor is just 3rd catcher depth because Quero hasn't been catching for over a month now and presumably the organization would prefer not to see Darrien Miller behind the dish during an MLB stretch run. I'd guess the plan for next year is to ride Contreras for his final Arby's year with Quero easing in as the back up (assuming Jeferson is healthy enough to handle it). Then in 2028 Quero takes over as starter with Dinges easing in as the back up (assuming Jeferson and Marco are both healthy enough to handle it). I'd personally keep Vaughn and Megill around too. Contreras / Quero Vaughn / Burke / Fischer / Adams Turang / Pratt / Made / Ortiz / Jett Chourio / Mitchell / Lara / Sal / Adamczewski (yelich) Misio / Harrison / Henderson / Drohan / Sproat / Gasser / Hardin Megill / Uribe / Ashby / Patrick / Anderson / Hall / Crow (Gordon / Koenig / Rom / Stallings / Priester? / Wagoner?) Not sure what kind of "big" external moves would really be out there to improve the position players with the youth infusion they have on the way. Best we can probably hope for is Bauers accepting a qualifying offer or Contreras extending / re-signing in FA? Can never have enough pitching so I'd imagine they'll be adding more there whether its the typical reclamation project kind of guys or maybe cashing in some of the prospect depth for more of an established and controllable arm.

At this point it's probably going to take something closer to McGonigle (8/$150M) or Griffin (9/$140M) money to extend Made. Obviously you still do it if Jesus is amenable, but I'd imagine it will cost almost double the 8/$82M that Jackson signed for.

Yup. The league as a whole is at +290.1 runs on batter initiated challenges, or +9.7 runs on average. At a lowly +6.9 runs the Brewers have cost themselves 2.8 runs below average. The league as a whole is at +213.3 runs on catcher initiated challenges, or +7.1 runs on average. The Brewers at +8.6 runs are 1.5 runs above average. The grand sum of the Brewers ABS activity this year has cost them about 1.3 runs below average. If they were the very best at challenging as both hitters and catchers they would have gained around 10.3 runs, one whole Win. Some would call such a performance "horrifcially bad", others might call it marginal in the grand scheme of things.