sveumrules

The Brewers lost Hader, Stearns, Counsell, Burnes, Williams, Adames, and Peralta leading up to and during Murphy’s tenure. It’s clear the arrow is pointing up now two plus years later but there was far less certainty at the outset they’d be able to survive so many losses.

Right. Murphy has managed better teams to more success than Counsell managed his teams to, so not all that similar in multiple regards.

Peak Counsell from 2018 to 2023 went 487 W - 384 L for a .559 W% that was 6th in MLB over those years. The Brewers scored 3,961 runs (14th) and allowed 3,647 runs (6th) for a +314 run differential, or +0.36 runs per game. Since Murhpy took over the Brewers are 235 W - 163 L for a .590 W% that is currently 2nd in MLB since 2024. The Brewers have scored 1,971 runs (4th) and allowed 1,549 runs (1st) for a +422 run differential, or +1.06 runs per game. Murphy's Brewers are +108 on run differential in 473 fewer games than Peak Counsell Brewers. I'd say that's considerably greater success.

If the Brewers lose today it will be their first losing streak of three or more games since dropping four in a row from April 22nd to April 25th which left them sitting at 13 W - 13 L for the season. Since then, their 32 W - 15 L record is the best in MLB, 1.5 games ahead of the Phillies at 31 W - 17 L over that same stretch. During this current 47 game run with the best record in MLB the Brewers have lost back to back games four times, but followed with a win in the third game after each of those four instances. Some of their league best stats during these last 47 games (2nd in Parentheses)... PITCHERS 3.34 RA/G (3.38 LAD) 3.14 ERA (3.32 LAD) 3.06 xERA (3.44 PHI) 3.36 FIP (3.58 PHI) 3.37 SIERA (3.39 PHI) 28.1 K% (25.6 PHI) 33.9 HardHit% (34.9 TBR) 5.8 Barrel% (6.3 NYY) 103.1 EV90 (103.4 ATL) +60.55 RE24 (+49.69 LAD) 10.2 rWAR (9.8 LAD) 8.6 fWAR (7.6 PHI) HITTERS 5.49 R/G (5.31 WAS) +45.36 RE24 (+39.47 NYY) 551 PA w/RISP (538 PIT) 203 R w/RISP (185 LAD)

I guess for me when trying to suss out those last few spots I saw two guys, one who is just starting to get some of that vaunted Industry Hype to justify their Island/Complex level performance, and the other who has matched that performance on the surface, while being farther up the defensive spectrum, with better underlying secondary skills across the board (even if they aren't quite as young and projectable) and it was hard to vote for one and not the other.

Pretty wild the discrepancy in votes between Frias and Juan Martinez too... 2025-26 Juan Martinez (312 PA) 337/452/558 (153 wRC+) 15.1 BB% | 11.2 K% .373 BABIP | .221 ISO 43 SB / 3 CS 2025-26 Alexander Frias (245 PA) 383/469/555 (157 wRC+) 12.2 BB% | 17.7 K% .460 BABIP | .172 ISO 19 SB / 9 CS Advantages Frias - hotter right now - younger - taller, more projectable Advantages Martinez - plate discipline - base running - isn't limited to corner outfield - better ISO - hasn't needed to run a .460 BABIP to get to his numbers

Interesting to see JD Thompson make it over Josh Knoth. Knoth is two years younger, currently healthy, and has much better results (in admittedly small samples for both) at the same level this year.

Jesus MadeLuis PenaCooper PrattLuis LaraJosh AdamczewskiBraylon PayneTyson HardinJett WilliamsJeferson QueroAndrew FischerBlake BurkeMarco DingesLuke AdamsCraig YohoBishop LetsonJosh KnothDylan O'RaeBrady EbelAlexander FriasJuan Martinez Not too much change from the May ballot. Henderson, Drohan, and Gasser graduating (plus Crow going on the IL) opened up four spots for me to get Luke Adams back on the list plus add in Ebel, Frias, and Martinez at the end. Beyond that mostly just reorganized my preferences a little in that #3 to #13 position player tier. Gave Hardin the biggest jump from #18 to #7 because I value proximity and it looks like he is probably the last intriguing SP option in Nashville that we have yet to see so far this year.

Sal was at 199 PA of 214/284/295 (62 wRC+) with an 8.5 BB% and 10.6 K% through the end of May. Since June Sal is hitting 310/396/405 (130 wRC+) with a 12.5 BB% and 8.3 K% over 48 PA. Small sample for sure, but don't see the Brewers optioning Sal when he is showing some signs of life.

Tonight will be Perkins 7th start (out of 36 total games, and 11 against LH starters) since coming back for Lockridge's injury. So far they are 5 W - 1 L in the six games he started so hard to say he has really cost them much over this stretch where he hasn't even started every game against LHP. His 36 PA are 13th on the team since his recall. Their 24 W - 11 L record is the best in MLB since that date also. By almost single handedly beating Sanchez the other day he's probably had a more outsized positive impact than just about any other team's 13th guy over these last five weeks or so since he's been back.

In both the recent term, and in the entirety of their time together on the Brewers, Sal has better actual statistics and production than Vaughn does against RHP.

Woodruff, Henderson, Koenig, and possibly Crow should all be returning at some point. Yoho has been one of the most dominant relief arms in the minors the last few years, he could develop into a leverage arm yet as he gets acclimated to MLB. Rom saw a huge uptick in results this year at AAA with a 65 ERA- | 50 FIP- over his 26 IP. Probably just another up down reliever, but who knows maybe he's another out of nowhere success story for the dev team. Only way to find out is to face MLB hitters and see what happens. We've already seen the uptick in Kuhnel's stuff since arriving. Again, probably just another innings eating reliever to bide time until other guys get healthy, but he was already getting save chances earlier in the year so who knows. Not on the 40 Man yet, but Hardin has looked impressive since getting promoted to AAA and could be better than any arm(s) we acquire at the deadline. No series of moves the Brewers make between now and the postseason will allow them to surpass the Dodgers, they may be able to buttress their position somewhat but they aren't getting close on paper (or a computer screen to keep it contemporaneous) no matter what happens.

Ahhh, remember the good old days of fearing every LHP on the slate? Even wondering aloud why teams don't just call up some scrub lefty starter from AAA for an easy win? Well, the Brewers hit for a 107 wRC+ (9th) last year against LHP en route to an MLB best 29 W - 18 L record versus lefty starters. So far this year? A below average 97 wRC+ (18th) against LHP, but a 15 W - 5 L record against southpaw starters that is tied for the best in MLB including a ten game winning streak since Vaughn and Chourio returned to the lineup. Might be overdue for a loss, or maybe they'll add another win to their MLB best 27 W - 13 L record against teams at .500 or better so far this year.

Since coming back from his hamate injury Vaughn has hit 258/324/339 (89 wRC+) over 68 PA vs RHP and 545/625/939 (325 wRC+) over 40 PA vs LHP. Sal has hit 259/339/348 (95 wRC+) over his 185 PA vs RHP so far this year compared to 158/210/228 (21 wRC+) over his 62 PA vs LHP. Expanding it out to the last two years vs RHP its 238 PA of 263/319/423 (106 wRC+) for Vaughn compared to 605 PA of 275/346/408 (112 wRC+) for Sal. Vaughn's edge in the seasonal numbers you quoted are coming entirely from his massive advantage vs LHP. Sal has performed better against RHP, especially when considering he has an advantage in speed/defense over Vaughn too. Frelick has also been improving overall after a rough start at 199 PA of 214/284/295 (62 wRC+) through May but 48 PA of 310/396/405 (130 wRC+) since the calendar flipped to June. Small sample, sure, but guessing the Brewers are going to want to give him some opportunities to see if maybe he's starting to figure something out.

Believe it is. BRef doesn't isolate SP from RP but they have our average pitcher age youngest in MLB at 26.8 with PIT in 2nd at 27.4 versus an MLB average of 29.3. Looking at just this year relative to the rest of MLB, and outside of Woodruff the old men of the rotation have been Gasser, Patrick and Drohan in their age 27 seasons. Here are the Brewers rotation ranks for SP age 27 and under so far this year... 321 IP (3rd) | 129 K+ (1st) | 136 K/BB+ (5th) | 89 AVG+ (4th) | 88 WHIP+ (6th) | 107 LOB+ (5th) | 82 ERA- (2nd) | 83 FIP- (6th) | +3.23 WPA (1st) | +38.84 RE24 (1st) | 8.3 rWAR (1st) | 7.4 fWAR (1st) Expanding it out to the whole staff (since guys like Drohan and Patrick have had swing roles) plus kicking it up to Age 28 to accommodate Ashby as the oldest young guy in the pen and their MLB whole staff ranks for pitchers 28 and under come in at... 521 IP (2nd) | 123 K+ (1st) | 117 K/BB+ (7th) | 91 AVG+ (3rd) | 92 WHIP+ (7th) | 106 LOB+ (t-1st) | 79 ERA- (3rd) | 83 FIP- (3rd) | +4.42 WPA (3rd) | +66.00 RE24 (1st) | 10.7 rWAR (1st) | 9.6 fWAR (1st)