sveumrules

There was exactly one player traded at the deadline that would have changed the Brewers odds/outlook…and he predictably went to the Dodgers. For teams like the Brewers who are already far out in front of the pack with no glaring holes (like the Cubs pitching for one example), the overwhelming majority of deadline deals are about depth and buttressing a teams current odds. If the Brewers hold the #1 seed & May/JoJo pitch quality postseason innings the trade will be a win (until Ragsdale & Frias make their way to MLB and help STL get back to the playoffs).

August 4th was the first day Yelich hit fifth and since then he has hit fifth or sixth for 15 of the 16 games he has started (other game was clean up). Doesn't include tonight's 2 for 3 with a double and walk (which shakes out to a 369 wRC+ for the evening) but before that he was at 71 PA of 262/310/415 (100 wRC+) with a 5.6 BB% and 22.5 K% since that 08/04 date. StatCast thinks he has been unlucky with a .356 expected wOBA (about a 127 wRC+) but only a .316 actual wOBA during that stretch, Over the 276 PA before that (after returning from injury for good on May 17th through August 3rd) he was at 276 PA of 221/313/367 (90 wRC+) with a 10.9 BB% and 26.8 K%. StatCast wasn't all that impressed with a .311 expected wOBA and a .302 actual wOBA for that stretch. Obviously small, sliced up samples but that is a pretty big drop in walk and strikeout rates recently with it looking like Yelich has increased his swing / contact rates from 43.1% and 71.3% during the 05/17 to 08/03 stretch up to 47.1% and 75.7% for this more recent stretch hitting lower in the order.

Would be such a cool story if somehow Woodruff made it back for the Postseason and was able to contribute to some wins. Out of 182 starting pitchers with at least 100 IP over the last two years Woody comes in at... 138 FB%+ (1st) | 24.2 LA (1st) | 2.45 xERA (2nd) | 68 WHIP+ (2nd) | 75 AVG+ (3rd) | 211 K/BB+ (5th) | 14.7 IFFB% (7th) | 138 K+ (10th) | 77 FIP- (18th) | 35.2 HardHit% (18th) | 65 BB+ (19th) | 75 ERA- (26th) Only real blemishes on his record from a performance standpoint have been mediocre home run (99 HR+) and strand (101 LOB+) rates. Obviously would have loved it if his shoulder had help up for more innings, but his results when on the mound have been pretty remarkable with a heater diminished four to five MPH from peak form.

One of them was Patrick as the bulk guy (4 IP | 4 ER) on April 22nd after Hall opened with two scoreless. Chad started his next two appearances, and once again on May 27th, but has 41 relief appearances versus only six starts on the season, so kinda? Another was Brandon Sproat (3.2 IP | 4 ER) on April 4th in the second game of a double header after Logan Henderson (2 IP | 2 ER) started the game as an opener / 27th man call up. The other six - Megill (x2), Zerpa (x2), Anderson, and Uribe - were more traditional reliever blows the game type scenarios.

Will be an interesting follow for sure. Could see the case for trying to slip him through since he is still so far away, but could also see a pitching starved team plucking him and trying to slip him through the season as the last man in the bullpen. Could also be a candidate for Organizational Pitcher of the Year with the season he is having... 115 IP of 4.15 ERA | 4.49 FIP (78 ERA- | 85 FIP-) 126 K (3rd in MWL) | 51 BB (10.2 BB%) or maybe Jaron DeBerry... 119 IP of 4.31 ERA | 5.01 FIP (87 ERA- | 99 FIP-) 132 K (most in SL) | 60 BB (11.7 BB%) dark horse Braylon Owens... 93 IP of 4.04 ERA | 3.81 FIP (78 ERA- | 73 FIP-) 29.9 K% (best in system min. 60 IP) | 43 BB (10.9 BB%)

There are 42 players (before tonight) with at least 1,000 PA as a Brewers minor leaguer going back to Castillo's first season in 2021. Luis took his 1,600th PA this evening which puts him at #11 on the list, and he should pass Wes Clarke in 10th place with 1,618 PA by season's end. With 2,196 PA it looks like Eduardo Garcia just recently overtook Mayor of Biloxi Zavier Warren (2,189 PA) for the Number One Spot.

Through the first 26 games when the Brewers were sitting at 13 W - 13 L the relievers had some of the following ranks among MLB bullpens... 8 L (3rd most) | 109 AVG+ (27th) | -1.50 WPA (25th) | 95 LOB+ (19th) | 102 ERA- (16th) | 88 FIP- (7th) Over the 109 games since then and before tonight the relievers have these rankings among MLB bullpens... 11 L (fewest) | 87 AVG+ (1st) | +8.58 WPA (2nd) | 106 LOB+ (2nd) | 73 ERA- (3rd) | 84 FIP- (2nd) Put it all together and in 2024 the bullpen had +13.14 WPA (2nd), in 2025 it was +5.03 WPA (10th), so far this year it is +7.08 WPA (2nd), and in total from 2024 through 2026 they are at +25.25 WPA (2nd) from their relievers. CLE relievers are first with +28.35 WPA over that stretch while the Braves bullpen is third at +19.59 WPA.

Do not. I normally just go to BRef and compile manually for stuff like that. Would imagine it would be pretty easy to whip up some kind of runs scored / runs allowed matrix with minimal coding skills, kind of surprised there isn't an easily accessible one out there somewhere. Looks like the Brewers have had 43 games this year where they scored two or three runs with a 14 W - 29 L (.326 W%) record in those games. Some other NL contender records when scoring two or three runs in a game this season... LAD (11 W - 26 L | .297 W%) ATL (13 W - 16 L | .448 W%) CHC (9 W - 16 L | .360 W%) PHI (11 W - 15 L | .423 W%) SDP (12 W - 29 L | .293 W%) ARI (10 W - 19 L | .345 W%) Throw in another 11 losses when the Brewers have scored zero or one runs in a game and that leaves a 70 W - 11 L record (.864 W%) when they've score four or more runs this year.

19 Double Digit Games = 232 Runs Scored = 12.21 R/G = 19 W - 0 L 117 Single Digit Games = 488 Runs Scored = 4.17 R/G = 58 W - 59 L 10 Double Digit Games = 138 Runs Scored = 13.80 R/G = 10 W - 0 L 125 Single Digit Games = 536 Runs Scored = 4.29 R/G = 74 W - 51 L

With headliners like Corbin Burnes (167 IP of 58 ERA- | 38 FIP-), Brandon Woodruff (179 IP of 61 ERA- | 69 FIP-), and Freddy Peralta (144 IP of 67 ERA- | 73 FIP-) plus showstoppers like Josh Hader (58 IP of 29 ERA- | 39 FIP-) and Devin Williams (54 IP of 59 ERA- | 66 FIP-), the 2021 Brewers pitching staff posted an 83 ERA- and 87 FIP- that are the lowest full season marks in Franchise History. Of the 13 pitchers with the most innings only Brett Anderson (100 ERA- | 103 FIP-), Adrian Houser (101 FIP-), and Aaron Ashby (108 ERA-) posted an ERA or FIP that was average or worse. Here we are five years later and now its headliners like MISIO (151 IP of 42 ERA- | 51 FIP-), Kyle Harrison (103 IP of 68 ERA- | 79 FIP-), and Logan Henderson (76 IP of 60 ERA- | 79 FIP-) plus showstoppers like Trevor Megill (51 IP of 55 ERA- | 42 FIP-) and Abner Uribe (48 IP of 50 ERA- | 74 FIP-) that are helping the 2026 Brewers put up an 82 ERA- and 85 FIP- so far. Of the 13 pitchers with the most innings only Brandon Sproat (128 ERA- | 122 FIP-), Robert Gasser (112 ERA- | 107 FIP-), and Grant Anderson (103 FIP-) have posted a worse than average ERA or FIP. It's happening again.

Not sure if Fischer is a legit third baseman, he's made 18 errors in 84 games at the hot corner this year and has started his last 14 games in the field at first base. The monthly PA splits for the 13th man on the roster have been 22, 23, 39, 29, and only 15 so far in August. Considering the 14th man is likely to play even less than that (Rhys Hoskins got 10 PA as the 14th Man last September, Monasterio got 14 PA as the 14th Man in September 2024) I'd guess the Brewers will want prospects like Fischer or Adams to continue getting regular reps in the minors and just call up someone like Naylor or Lockridge who is already on the 40 Man.

More or less the same thing that the Giants got after we traded him to them in 2022, and the same thing the Rays got when they sold him to the White Sox for cash considerations this past December. The good news items relevant to Tristan Peters would be that (1) the individual who traded him away is now employed by the Mets, and (2) the Brewers have the best record in MLB this year (again) playing well above anyone's reasonable expectations entering the season (hey, kinda like Tristan Peters is) and have a future OF stocked with options like Chourio, Mitchell, Lara, Frelick, Adamczewski, Payne, Strosnider, Antunez, etc. If the Brewers had 71 or 72 wins fighting with the Padres and Diamondbacks for the last Wild Card spot looking up at the Cubs in the Central (like the season was supposed to play out according to the experts) this would be a lot more concerning to me, but given the reality we are living in is markedly better than that (again) it's more of a Way To Go Tristan from me.

Also kind of funny that one play where the literal Little League infield played a major role is used as a metaphor for Hamilton's defensive shortcomings, but no mention of the rare 5-3 double play (requiring both his above average range and athleticism for a 3B) that he pulled off in very the same game.

Hamilton has +7 DRS versus 0 FRV at 3B so far this year and this is a case where I think the truth is probably closer to what DRS is coming up with. As a whole DRS says the Brewers have saved 41 runs (7th) for the season, but FRV says only two runs saved (14th). Considering their 3.56 FIP is the lowest in MLB and they've still managed to shave 0.14 runs off of that to get to a 3.42 ERA (and from watching the games) I'd guess that DRS is doing a better job capturing their defensive performance this year (again). Going back to 2023 they've shaved an MLB best 0.38 runs per game from their 3.99 FIP (6th) to their 3.61 ERA (1st). They've demonstrated a pretty steadfast commitment to the defense as a key element of the run prevention symbiosis. Do we think it's more likely the Brewers internal metrics are spitting out results closer to their +175 DRS over that time or their +114 FRV? Both totals rank 3rd in MLB over that stretch so it's mostly just a matter of scale, about 0.28 runs per game in the estimation of DRS, or about 0.18 runs per game in the estimation of FRV. With +61 DRS versus +17 FRV for his career, Brice Turang accounts for 72% of the 61 run difference between the Brewers team DRS and FRV since 2023 all by himself.

How deep is the Brewers minor league infield pool? They mentioned ten prospects in the article who are all in the org Top Twenty and you could still make a whole other infield out of intriguing guys they have outside the Top 25... 1B Bitonti (#26 | 434 PA of 126 wRC+ at A+ | 22 HR / 22 SB) 2B O'Rae (UR | 394 PA of 113 wRC+ at AA | 50 SB) SS Dickinson (UR | 447 PA of 127 RC+ at A+ | 51 SB) 3B Matos (UR | 228 PA of 149 wRC+ in DSL | 10 HR / 19 SB) UT Ortuno (UR | 455 PA of 108 wRC+ at A | 37 SB)