Comparing Brandon Woodruff's Shoulder To The Injuries Of Johan Santana & Julio Urias

[_Rob_G_]

When Brandon Woodruff had a press conference to announce that he would not be able to make his next start in the 2023 postseason, nearly all Brewers fans thought they had seen the last of Woody in a Brewers uniform. Now, there is hope that he can come back rejuvenated and contribute to a team in need of some consistent starting pitching.

Image courtesy of © Mike De Sisti / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Can Brandon Woodruff be the same pitcher he was before rehabbing for over a year, or will he struggle to regain his top-of-the-rotation type stuff? Let's look at how some other starting pitchers have fared following surgery to repair an anterior capsule injury in their shoulder.

Someone who was in a similar spot in their career when they had the same shoulder injury and surgery is Johan Santana. That may cause alarm bells to go off in some fan’s heads, but Santana needed the surgery twice, the second occurring only a year after the first procedure. The first time Santana required the surgery was at the tail end of the 2010 season; he had a productive year in his third season as a New York Met, tallying 199.0 innings pitched while holding a 2.98 ERA. However, a season-ending injury was not something Santana was unfamiliar with, previously missing time with a meniscus tear in his knee and bone chips in his elbow in 2008 and 2009, respectively.

When he returned from his anterior capsule surgery in 2012, he was not the same pitcher he had been before. While his health was still a question throughout the season, he had two separate 15-day IL stints; his stuff was not as sharp as it once had been. He did put it all together one day to throw a no-hitter, the first in Mets’ history, but other than some impressive outliers, he struggled. Santana’s walks, hits, and home runs per nine jumped to rates he had seldom seen since his first couple years in the league.

There is not much pitch data from 2012, but per FanGraphs and Statcast, his fastball’s runs above average dropped from 19.5 in 2010 to -4.1 when he returned from shoulder surgery. It went from a truly elite pitch to a well below-average pitch. For reference, Devin William’s changeup peaked at 14.9 runs above average in 2023. Santana lost around one mile per hour per pitch but no pitch struggled to bounce back like his fastball. A starting pitcher struggling to throw strikes with a below-average fastball does not bode well for his season.

Santana’s year-end stat line was 117.0 innings with a 4.85 ERA. The Mets would buy out his option for the next year, making him a free agent. Then he bounced around, never making it back to MLB. While his age range is similar to where Brandon Woodruff is currently, Santana had many more innings thrown at a higher level than Woody (1908.2 to 680.1). Now, let's take a look at a pitcher who was able to come back well from his anterior capsule surgery.

The most recent MLB-level starting pitcher to come back from the same surgery was Julio Urias of the Los Angeles Dodgers. In 2017, Urias made a couple of starts where he struggled with command for the Dodgers after an abbreviated spring training. They sent him down to Triple-A to figure things out, but he quickly found himself on the IL. He had surgery on June 26th, 2017, and made his return to the Dodgers on September 15th, 2018. He appeared three times in the regular season for the Dodgers to enough success to see himself land on the Dodgers NLCS roster, where he appeared against the Brewers, giving up one run in 3 ⅓ innings.

Urias also made the Dodgers’ World Series roster and appeared once against the Boston Red Sox, giving up one run in three innings of work. In 2019, he returned to appear 37 times but was put on administrative leave due to a domestic battery investigation (which ended in a 20-game suspension).

Then, in 2020, he thrived as a full-time starter for the Dodgers. From the start of the 2020 season to the end of the 2022 season, he was one of the best pitchers in the league. Urias started 73 games and had a 2.66 ERA over those three years. He was all the way back from his shoulder surgery in 2017. While analyzing his comeback, it is important to remember that he was a much younger pitcher than Brandon Woodruff. Urias never struggled to regain his velocity or pitch quality like Santana did. His walk and hard contact rates were a little high, but he was a young pitcher trying to find his way in the majors.

Even in recent years, his runs have been above average on all pitches and have been fairly volatile. For example, per Statcast, his changeup has gone from being an 8.2 runs above average pitch in 2021 to a -8.8 runs above average pitch in 2023. Was his comeback from the surgery because of his youth and relatively few innings on his arm, or was it because teams have improved their ability to guide pitchers back from brutal shoulder injuries?

In general, pitchers have struggled to return from long-term shoulder injuries. Clayton Kershaw is another recent example. He struggled less with throwing strikes but more with regaining the same zip on his fastball. We see a similar story in Statcast to Santana, where the fastball loses about one mile per hour of velocity and takes a bigger dip in wins above average. Kershaw again drops into the negatives on his fastball in 2024.

Kodai Senga is another high-level starting pitcher who has struggled through shoulder injuries recently. He has also seen his wins above average drop after returning. While Senga’s four-seam fastball did not drop similarly to other pitchers, his cut fastball took a big dip after returning, dropping from 16.3 wins above average to -0.5.

If there were one thing to keep an eye out for while watching Brandon Woodruff make his way back, it would be how well he is throwing his fastball—both from a command perspective and a stuff perspective. Woody has bounced back well from injury in the past. Even in 2023, he spent some time on the IL, nearly 3 months, with a sub-scapular strain also in his shoulder. When Woodruff returned to the rotation, he was lights out, making nine starts between August and September, including a complete game shutout on September 11th against the Marlins.

Woodruff probably winds up somewhere in the middle of how Santana and Urias returned. However, I can't help but feel optimistic while factoring in the advantage he and the Brewers, as an organization, have of knowing what he is dealing with heading into spring training. They can use the now-famous Brewers' pitching lab to slowly work Woody back where they want him to be. Considering the severity of the surgery, One must assume the organization moves cautiously with how many innings he throws this year. That said, he is in line to have a normal spring training schedule as long as everything goes smoothly. If he can take advantage of a “regular” schedule leading up to the season, why can't he get back to being a reliable starting pitcher for a Brewers team that will be looking for just that anywhere it comes from?

What do you expect from Brandon Woodruff in 2025? Let us know in the comments!

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[Sixtolezcano]

I’d be surprised if Woody would return to be anything like the pitcher he was before his injury. As this article and the long history of shoulder injuries have proven a return to form almost never happens. Counting on him being anything more than a part time bottom of the rotation starter shouldn’t be anticipated. Expecting him to regain top of the rotation type ability as this author suggests, would be a fools errand which I hope Matt Arnold isn’t counting on.

[_Rob_G_]

5 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I’d be surprised if Woody would return to be anything like the pitcher he was before his injury. As this article and the long history of shoulder injuries have proven a return to form almost never happens. Counting on him being anything more than a part time bottom of the rotation starter shouldn’t be anticipated. Expecting him to regain top of the rotation type ability as this author suggests, would be a fools errand which I hope Matt Arnold isn’t counting on.

Does Julio Urias turning into a legit top of the rotation SP after his surgery give you any hope? Or do you just chalk that all up to his youth aiding his recovery? 

[Sixtolezcano]

2 hours ago, _Rob_G_ said:

Does Julio Urias turning into a legit top of the rotation SP after his surgery give you any hope? Or do you just chalk that all up to his youth aiding his recovery? 

Youth most likely. I really didn’t intend to mean never occurs (almost).You would think 🤔 if Julio is still considered a top of the rotation starter there would be multiple teams knocking each other over to sign him to a multi year contract regardless of his criminal history.