Evaluating The 2021 Draft: Big Hits, One Deal To Take Back, & Missed Chances

[Harold Hutchison]

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images / John Hefti-Imagn Images

The 2021 season was one of those magical runs. At the major-league level, the Brewers rode a dominant pitching staff led by Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes, alongside co-aces Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and lights-out closer Josh Hader to an NL Central Crown. But that season’s draft has helped craft the current team’s run of success as well.

Yet this is a draft Brewers fans will probably wonder whether it could have been even better, even though it produced a solid outfielder who has a Gold Glove and a potential co-ace for the rotation. Let’s look it over.

Best Pick (for now): OF Sal Frelick

First-round pick Sal Frelick delivered early dividends, making it to the majors in 2023 and being a fixture for three straight division titles. Frelick has been durable, and while his offense has dipped a little in 2026 (a career-low .250 BABIP) along with an injured list stint, he’s played admirably overall. Frelick’s likely to reach arbitration, and while he’s been at the bottom of the lineup for the Brewers, some teams could use him as a leadoff hitter.

Honorable Mention (for now): RHP Logan Henderson

When he’s been on the mound, the fourth-round pick has dominated, providing a one-two punch with Jacob Misiorowski that we’re sure MLB teams will hate to face for the next five years or so. Henderson’s injury struggles, though, have kept him off the mound for significant bits of 2025 and 2026. Still, he’s done very well, well enough that he became the rumored sticking point in the Brewers’ negotiations with Detroit over Tarik Skubal.

Unconventional Contributor To Multiple Division Titles: OF Jace Avina

As a 14th-round pick, Jace Avina isn’t exactly one you’d expect to have helped lay the foundation for Brewers teams that won multiple division titles, but he did exactly that. In the 2023-2024 offseason, he and fellow outfield prospect Brian Sanchez were traded to the Yankees for Jake Bauers, who has become a valuable part-time first baseman/corner outfielder for the Brewers. Not bad, although that deal did have other consequences.

Trade The Brewers Want Back: OF Tristan Peters

Peters was picked in the seventh round and was traded to the San Francisco Giants for relief pitcher Trevor Rosenthal, who never appeared in a game for Milwaukee. Since then, after being traded two more times, he’s now proven to be a solid contributor with the White Sox. Granted, the Brewers probably had a lot more talent in the outfield, but in this case, the return for the deal wasn’t exactly the front office’s finest move.

Could’ve Been (Position Player): UT Tyler Black

Black was a pure hitter, and three years ago, it looked like he could be joining Jackson Chourio as a franchise fixture in Milwaukee at the hot corner following a breakout season. However, trades (including the Bauers deal), a 2025 hamate injury, and, somehow, not quite meshing with Pat Murphy’s style of baseball (through no real fault of either player or manager) have kept Black on the Milwaukee-Nashville shuttle for the past three years. With Jake Bauers slated for free agency, Black may have a shot in 2027 to help the Brewers and push this draft’s grade higher, but there’s a lot of talent he needs to fight through.

Brewers fans will always wonder what could have been if Black had been given a shot similar to Frelick, or if the same patience the organization showed with Chourio’s adjustment to the majors had been granted to Black.

Could’ve Been (Pitcher): RHP Carlos Rodriguez

The eighth-round pick in the draft actually was seen as a steal at one point – earning Brewer Fanatic’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2022 and 2023. His rapid rise, though, like Black’s, ended up being more on the Milwaukee-Nashville shuttle afterward, culminating in being outrighted following the Brewers’ flurry of deadline deals in 2026. Rodriguez is in his age-24 season and nowhere near washed-up – and could still be a contributor for the Brewers (or someone else).

Still Percolating: UT Ethan Murray and RHP/1B/DH Quinton Low

Ethan Murray and Quinton Low are picks still being developed. Murray’s been a solid piece of infield depth for the Brewers organization, while Low’s intriguing two-way potential has been sidetracked by multiple seasons on the injured list. Both could still help the Brewers at some point.

The 2021 draft is a very solid one for the Brewers, and has the chance to be better, although there are also what appear to be some missed opportunities.

Overall Grade: B+

How would you grade the Brewers’ 2021 MLB draft? Let us know in the comments below!

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[biedergb]

at one point this looked like a transformative draft.  Frelick was the surefire CF/RF of the future, Black was a top prospect, Rodriguez was a likely 4th/5ht SP, and Henderson was middle relief and possible middle rotation starter about 2+ years ago.  Frelick is now a MLB starter and likely 4th OF as a defensive specialist, Black will be traded or DFA, and Rodriguez was DFA and likely will move on.  Henderson is now the jewel of the draft. And I did not have Tristan Peters as being the 3rd best from this draft class

[Harold Hutchison]

7 hours ago, biedergb said:

at one point this looked like a transformative draft.  Frelick was the surefire CF/RF of the future, Black was a top prospect, Rodriguez was a likely 4th/5ht SP, and Henderson was middle relief and possible middle rotation starter about 2+ years ago.  Frelick is now a MLB starter and likely 4th OF as a defensive specialist, Black will be traded or DFA, and Rodriguez was DFA and likely will move on.  Henderson is now the jewel of the draft. And I did not have Tristan Peters as being the 3rd best from this draft class

Frelick's still very good - and the return for him in a trade could keep the grade high. The big question is getting him enough playing time to get a good return for him in the 2027-2028 offseason. Henderson always had the high ceiling.

Black and Rodriguez are both going to be what Brewers fans wonder about for a long time, and the organization's handling of the former is definitely something that should be questioned. Still a very good draft - much better than some other drafts, to be honest.

[Playing Catch]

IMHO, that draft is an A. I would guess the Brewers' 2021 Draft has accrued more MLB WAR than any other team that drafted behind them, and probably a lot more than most teams that drafted ahead of them.

Based on a few cursory prompt responses from Google's AI, the Brewers currently have accrued about the 6th most WAR of that draft, although most of that is due to Frelick, of course, however I think that any draft that produces a legitimate starting CFer and a legitimate 3rd or 4th starting pitcher on a championship-caliber team is beyond what teams should "expect" from a draft.

At the less valuable picks, they also drafted two starting caliber corners in Peters and Tyler Black, and throw in a guy that was a tradeable asset, like Alex Binelas (not mentioned above), and other AAAA-guys, like Rodriguez, or Wes Clarke, and the Brewers drafted some "advanced" organizational depth as well, to fill out a very successful, albeit "ordinary" draft.

Obviously as time goes on, the WAR totals will certianly shift, and perhaps this draft becomes more/less successful due to those shifts, but as of right now, I think it was an A.