2025 NL Central Preview: Cincinnati Reds

Last Year
The Reds have finished over .500 only three times in the last ten years, including last season’s 77-85 mark which ranked fourth in the NL Central, 16 games behind the Brewers. Cincinnati had four winning months during the year, but that was offset by a combined 21-35 in May and August. The good news is that the Reds placed third in the NL with 207 stolen bases. The bad news is they were third-to-last with an OPS+ of 88.

Shortstop Elly De La Cruz led the NL with 67 stolen bases, but on the negative side, also led the league with 16 caught steals and 218 strikeouts. Pitcher Hunter Greene led all NL pitchers with a 6.3 bWAR, which also placed fifth overall in the league. Both De La Cruz and Greene made the All-Star team.

The Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projection has the Reds finishing last in the division and winning 74 games in 2025, three games worse than last year.

Key Losses: 2B Jonathan India, pitchers Ty France, Fernando Cruz, Buck Farmer, Justin Wilson.

Key Signings: 2B Gavin Lux, P Taylor Rogers, OF Austin Hays, C Jose Trevino, P Brady Singer.

Starting Pitching
Greene is the ace of the staff and as good as he has been, the righty not come close to his ceiling. His ERA+ of 160 led the team and his FIP of 3.47 was second among starters. Could this be the year Greene breaks through and competes for the Cy Young award?

Right-handers Nick Martinez (142 ERA+, 3.21 FIP) and Brady Singer (114, 3.93) will be in the rotation as well as left-hander Nick Lodolo (92, 3.95). The fifth spot is up for grabs with left-hander Andrew Abbott (118, 5.04) and righty Rhett Lowder (six starts) as the current favorites. Both Abbott and Lowder are rehabbing injuries and might be a bit behind the curve. Also competing for a spot are right-handers Graham Ashcraft and Carson Spiers. Veteran southpaw Wade Miley was signed as a free agent but won’t return from injury until late April/early May.

2025 FanGraphs ZiPS Projections

Relief Pitching
Seven of the projected eight bullpen spots are most likely locked up. Ex-Brewer funny man Brent Suter (140 OPS+, 4.31 FIP), Sam Moll (132, 3.46), and Taylor Rogers (161, 3.75) are the three left-handers in the mix. Emilio Pagán (98, 3.77), Tony Santillan (148, 2.73), and Scott Barlow (96, 4.02) are the right-handers that will man the ‘pen. The closer is expected to be Alexis Díaz, who was an All-Star in 2023 and has 65 saves the last two seasons.

Fighting for the last spot will be Ashcraft and Spiers, if they do not make the starting rotation. Others include Yosver Zulueta, Connor Phillips, Lyon Richardson, and NRI Reds fan-favorite Ian Gibaut, all of whom are right-handers.

2025 FanGraphs ZiPS Projections

Catcher
Tyler Stephenson started 112 games at catcher last year and will get the majority of the starts this year. Stephenson had an OPS of .782 and an OPS+ of 112. Newly acquired Jose Trevino brings a Gold Glove pedigree and is a solid backup.

First Base
One of many positions that will be a toss-up. The front-runners will be Spencer Steer or Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Steer played 158 games between LF and 1B last year but has a bum shoulder that might restrict him to the DH role. Encarnacion-Strand should see playing time when the season begins.

Second Base
Matt McLain missed all last year with a torn labrum in his left shoulder but is healthy this year. Newcomer Gavin Lux can play second and possibly left field and will be a utility guy. Santiago Espinal can play all over the infield.

Third Base
The hot corner is another spot where you can flip a coin to see who plays there. Jeimer Candelario will start if needed but he struggles defensively at third. Espinal can fill in but is not a full-time player at one position. If Noelvi Marte proves he can play at the big-league level, he might get a shot as well.

Shortstop
This is an easy one. Elly De La Cruz will be the everyday ‘6.’ The speedy, electric player should only get better as he matures. Espinal and McLain will be the back-ups.

Left Field
Austin Hays will for sure play against LHP, and has a career OPS of .719 against righties, which isn’t terrible. Will Benson, Stuart Fairchild, and Lux could get some playing time as well.

Center Field
TJ Friedl will be the main man in center field, part of the team's solid up-the-middle defense. Hays, Benson, and Fairchild can all play CF if needed.

Right Field
Another toss-up position, although Jake Fraley will probably get most starts against right-handers (career .786 OPS). Hays, Benson, and Fairchild could all slot in as reserves.

Designated Hitter
Get out that coin again! If Steer can’t throw, he will be at DH. If Candelario can’t play defense, he will get starts there as well. Add Lux and Encarnacion-Strand to the mix.

2025 FanGraphs ZiPS Projections

Summary
The Reds have two players that could (should) be All-Stars again this year: De La Cruz and Greene. If Tyler Stephenson, Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, or Nick Lodolo can replicate past success, one or more of them could join De La Cruz and Greene on the grass on July 15 at Atlanta’s Truist Park.

Prognosticators have the Reds finishing fourth or last in the NL Central. But if the Pirates or Cardinals stumble, the Reds could climb into that third spot, with an eye on the final NL wild card.