3 Keys For Brewers To Take Down Diamondbacks: Hit Corbin Burnes, Stop Corbin Carroll

Even with the relative step-up in competition coming, it seems like a lot is clicking for the Brewers. Jackson Chourio is authoring the beginning of a stellar sophomore season, Brice Turang is finding his power stroke, and Freddy Peralta is thus far pitching like a Cy Young contender. Do the Brewers have what it takes to contend against the likes of former Milwaukee ace Corbin Burnes and the stacked lineup that supports him? Let's dig in.

The eyes of the baseball world have been compelled Westward ever since Shohei Ohtani touched down in America. First with the Angels, and now the feared Dodgers and the dominating apparatus they’ve constructed. With so much attention being paid to Los Angeles, you’d be forgiven to have overlooked what’s happening in the sunbaked sprawl of Phoenix. Being overlooked has kind of been a motif for the D-Backs, even as far back as 2001 when they won the World Series, denying the Yankees their fourth consecutive ring. The same is true now, having cobbled together an adroitly built roster with toolsy flourishes throughout. Many of the players on said roster took the baseball world by surprise in 2023 after they confidently plowed through the Brewers, Dodgers and Phillies to win the pennant, only to ultimately lose to the Rangers in the World Series

The Brewers will take Chase Field with an identical 7-6 record to their hosts, this after winning a series against the Rockies that saw them decisively crush them in consecutive games before the Rox returned the favor and spoiled Quinn Priester’s solid Brewers debut. Who pitches for the Brewers in the initial game has yet to be determined, emblematic of the Crew’s deeply depleted rotation. The second game pits Brewers rookie Chad Patrick against a familiar face in Corbin Burnes. This might appear as unfairly tilted in favor of the D-Backs, but Burnes has yet to shine in a Diamondbacks uniform, walking his fair share of hitters and getting barreled up by others. This seems more than likely to turn around before too long, but Milwaukee may have the good fortune of matching up against his arm before it truly warms up. The last game pits ace against ace with Freddy Peralta against Zac Gallen. Gallen is in his penultimate year before hitting free agency and has yet to find his stride as well. He's still getting a lot of swings and misses, but he's walking more than the league average in the process.

Where the Diamondbacks' pitching has yet to find their rhythm, the offense has been steady. This is particularly true with the overlooked powerhouse that is Corbin Carroll, who leads the NL with an insane .520 xwOBA. The Crew won’t face a whole lot of let up should they get past arguably the best leadoff hitter in baseball. Following Carroll is the second-place team WAR leader in Geraldo Perdomo. Shortly after that, some fearsome slugging in the newly acquired Josh Naylor and veteran homer threat Eugenio Suarez. Even Pavin Smith is hitting well, currently possessing an almost shocking 1.152 OPS. The fangs on a lineup like this look even sharper when you consider the state of the Brewers embattled rotation. Thankfully, at least, the Brewers will avoid pitching to Ketel Marte, who is on the IL with a hamstring strain.

Three Keys To Take Down The Diamondbacks

1. Keep the aces off balance: The predicted one-two punch of Burnes & Gallen once theorized as possible contenders for first and second-place Cy Young finishers have yet to live up to that reputation. The Brewers might be able to make moot the D-Backs potent offense if they can put up crooked numbers of their own and do some damage to the starters before Arizona turns to their bullpen, which has been stellar so far, by the way. 

2. A Tale Of Two Corbins: Where Burnes hasn’t been himself to start the season, Carroll has been absolutely torrid to start the season. I know this point effectively repeats the points that have already been established in the rest of the article but it can’t be overstated how talent as potent as Corbin Carroll’s is can serve as the crux of the entire series. The Brewers need to be mindful and play several steps ahead of someone who might supplant Ohtani as this years MVP.

3. Find some slug, Frelick: After getting drafted 15th overall in 2021, Sal Frelick quickly ascended to the bigs with gritty play and a flashy glove that endeared himself well to the Milwaukee faithful. He isn’t and will almost certainly never be a player known for his pop, but his hitting has proven to be difference making. What’s more, there is ever so slightly a hint that he might be finding the slightest bit of power. Frelick’s hard hit percentage is up to 14% up from an immeasurable sub-one percent last year. Still a bit on the meek side? Sure, but if you consider his other tools (most notably his speed), if he can continue on this trajectory and maintains his average, you won’t have to squint hard to see him look a bit like that Corbin Carroll guy I keep going on about.

Predictions: There’s no denying it, the Diamondbacks are good. In fact, they have the makings to be great if everything clicks. There is also the home field advantage to consider, and the Brewers' strained rotation. Given that these teams are fairly evenly matched in terms of their composition, I have to give a slight edge to the D-Backs to take two of three.