Bombers Incoming: Brewers Host New York in Big Series

Storied franchise that they are, it’s always an event to play the 27-time World Series champion Yankees. That they are competitive again (after a down year in 2023) only adds to the hype. Love them or hate them, the Yanks have built themselves up with the star power it takes to potentially add to that titles total. How will it fare against the Crew? Let’s break it down.

Friday, April 26th
Luis Gil (1-1 2.75 ERA) vs. Colin Rea (2-0 2.08 ERA)
Opening the series for the Yanks will be the Dominican-born righty Luis Gil. Injuries have plagued his fledgling career, but it’s been a solid start to the season for Gil, who (despite being tied for second in walks) is limiting action on the base paths by stifling power and striking batters out at an elite rate. In his most recent start, Gil notched a career-high 9 strikeouts while earning his first win in three years.

Colin Rea’s fantastic season continued in his last start, wherein he put together five shutout innings in what would eventually lead to a Brewers win. It’s difficult to discern what has gone so right for Rea when, frankly, the peripherals hate him. His 2.08 ERA rests more than four points south of his xERA, which is 6.13. Still, the Brewers are wise to go with the hot hand as long as he can keep things going. At this stage, Rea is their second- or third-best starter.

Saturday, April 27th
Carlos Rodón (1-1 2.70 ERA) vs. Joe Ross (1-2 4.05 ERA)
The prize free-agent signing for the Yanks in the 2022-23 offseason utterly combusted last year, turning in a DFA-worthy 6.85 ERA - this after back-to-back years of posting ERAs under 3 and garnering Cy Young votes, all of which led to a massive six-year, $162-million contract. This isn’t the first time Rodón has found a crest after a trough. The White Sox (who drafted him in 2014) non-tendered him late in 2020 but signed him to a one-year deal in 2021, and he rewarded their trust by being the ace his talent had always promised. That said, his xERA is a full point higher, and players are barreling the ball against him, which does expose some vulnerabilities that the Brewers could take advantage of.

It was a decent start for Joe Ross this past Monday, when he allowed two runs (one earned) over 5 1/3 innings. He did get hit around a bit, but his 3.35 FIP suggests he's not going to be battered that way often. Ross’s strength is getting players to hit the ball on the ground, which he does at a stellar rate. If the Brewers infield does their job, Ross should have what it takes to quell even the ferocious bats from the Bronx.

Sunday, April 28th
Marcus Stroman (2-1 2.93 ERA) vs. Tobias Myers (0-1 1.80 ERA)
Known to be a bit of a firebrand, Marcus Stroman has made his career by backing up his talk with All-Star-caliber pitching. Last year began as well as any for Stroman, who pitched masterfully for the Cubs until injuries sidelined him. He never really got back to that form thereafter, though, and the Cubs let him walk after he opted for free agency. So far, his time in pinstripes has been fruitful; he's striking out over a batter an inning and getting ground balls at a prodigious rate.

The limelight didn’t faze Tobias Myers, who likely never figured into the Brewers rotation plans but ended up there through a series of early-season injuries. Myers is already the ninth pitcher to start a game for the Crew, and in his debut start against the Pirates, he pitched five innings, gave up four hits, walked one and struck out four. The Yankees will likely prove a tougher challenge for Myers, who hopes to prove that his unconventional path to the majors was a long move to a new home, not a jaunt to a momentary destination.

Players To Watch
Aaron Judge: And could it be anyone else? The former MVP is only two years separated from eclipsing Roger Maris for the AL home-run record, eventually hitting 62 home runs. Last year, injuries truncated his season, and his power numbers diminished a bit, but he still smashed 37 homers, which is prolific by any player's standard. He's off to an uncharacteristically cold start this spring, too. He’s hitting below the Mendoza line and has thus far left the yard only three times. Whether it’s another nagging injury or a mechanical glitch, though, there’s no reason to think Judge is somehow not a threat at the plate. Let’s just hope he doesn’t suddenly unlock his truest self at AmFam this weekend.

Juan Soto: Every general statement I made (or could make) about Aaron Judge, I could copy and paste into Soto’s section. Generational talent, elite power threat, megastar - it’s all there. What I can’t say about Soto is that there is any kind of cold start happening here. Soto has nearly a 1.000 OPS and is leading the league in OBP, while hitting for power. Some players crumble in the limelight of a major market, Soto seems to be feeding on it.

Blake Perkins: With so much focus being put on Jackson Chourio’s development, Perkins's sudden emergence into relevance has largely gone overlooked. His xwOBA has crept up more than 50 points over his last 100 plate appearances, and his power peripherals indicate that he’s squaring up the ball with meaningful consistency. He’s also very fast, and he's brilliant afield. If he can keep this up, the Brewers might have another five-tool outfielder on their hands.

Predictions
I haven’t had to do this for a while, but then again, the Yankees haven’t looked like the Yankees for a while. That changed this offseason with the acquisition of Soto, and to a lesser extent, those of Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham. Those three in outfield rotation with Judge nicely illustrate the imposing team that the Yanks have cobbled together in 2024. If the Brewers rotation had fewer question marks I’d be more optimistic. Alas, those question marks exist, giving me all the more certainty in the Yanks taking this series.