Brewers 3, Pirates 2: Just Enough Late Offense to Sweep

Brewers 3, Pirates 2
W: Hoby Milner (2-0)
L: Chris Stratton (0-1)
S: Devin Williams (1)

Rotation Continues to Give the Brewers a Chance
Freddy Peralta looked like the good version of himself - surely with some help from the generous strike zone of home plate umpire Vic Carapazza - and retired eight straight Pirates from the second inning through the end of the fifth. While he started to wear down in the sixth - not unusual for pitchers after the shortened spring training - his characteristic wildness was absent as he walked no Pirates while striking out seven over six innings. He allowed only three hits, all singles.

Andrew McCutchen, You Have One Job
Opposing Peralta, veteran Jose Quintana used his inherent left-handedness to give Brewer hitters fits through five innings of work, striking out nine batters and walking none. The sole exception to Quintana’s dominance was McCutchen, who homered on the first pitch of the game and later sharply singled to the outfield, accounting for two of the only four Brewer hits against the left-hander.

The Brewers' offense needs to kick-start itself, especially against left-handed pitching (26th in MLB with a 73 wRC+), as they’re not going to face the hapless Pirates again until the final day of June after playing Pittsburgh six times in their first 20 games. A big reason why the Brewers lead the NL Central is thanks to their 6-0 record against the Pirates.

Confusing Choices Continue to Confound
Right-hander Miguel Yajure replaced left-handed Quintana to start the sixth. He walked Willy Adames to start the inning, which prompted Craig Counsell to continue his baffling platoon approach with Keston Hiura (career .838 OPS vs. RHP, .587 vs. LHP). Rowdy Tellez pinch-hit for Hiura and flew out to the warning track in right-center on a 106.7 mph towering fly ball.

While Tellez missed giving the Brewers a three-run lead by only a few feet, consistently starting Hiura against left-handers and replacing him the moment a righty takes the mound is using the worst of both sides of Hiura’s stat line and minimizing his ability to create a positive impact on offense. As the team struggles to string together hits and runs, it’s hard not to be increasingly frustrated with this approach. Fans too often tout reverse splits, but Hiura appears to be one of the rare cases where a batter is legitimately better when the pitcher is same-handed. In all four of Hiura’s seasons as an MLB player - including 2022 - he has posted a better OPS against right-handed pitching over 821 total plate appearances. Hiura, ignoring his other offensive issues over the years, has enough data points to indicate this is probably not an aberration and should be factored into how he is used and platooned by Counsell.

It Was Bound to Happen
Brad Boxberger has been one of the stalwarts of the Brewers' bullpen, keeping the team and its low-scoring nature in the game through late innings; given the razor-thin margins the Brewers offense has given their pitching staff, days like today were inevitable. Boxberger entered the game and immediately began handing Pirate hitters BOGO rifle shots: Ben Gamel with a .970 xBA single, Michael Chavis with a .630 xBA double, followed by a Jack Suwinski .400 xBA grounder that was fumbled by Adames behind second base and ruled an error. One Diego Castillo .680 xBA sac fly later, and Boxberger’s day was over, having relinquished the lead to Pittsburgh in the form of a 2-1 score.

Brent Suter was called in to clean up the damage with one out and a runner on first. One weak fly to left and another to center later, he had done just that.

The Dead Cat Bunt?
Chris Stratton came in to close the game for the Pirates and induced a weak fly out of Lorenzo Cain, which prompted Counsell to pinch-hit Christian Yelich. Yelich squared up to bunt on the first pitch, laying a beauty toward third for a single. Wong followed with a sharp grounder past the right-side infielders, sending Yelich to second. Omar Narvaez, the second pinch-hitter of the inning, blooped a single in front of the left fielder, loading the bases.

Bringing the game full circle, McCutchen walked the plate. He rifled a line drive right at Pirates' second baseman Josh VanMeter who would only put a fraction of leather on the ball at a full leap, and the Brewers once again had the lead, 3-2. Stratton regained his composure, retiring Adames and Renfroe to stop the bleeding.

Hold Onto Your Butts
With Josh Hader having pitched in what feels like every Brewers win this season, Counsell had to lean on Devin Williams - always a controversial figure amongst Brewers fans, particularly early in seasons - to step into the closer role. Just as every Brewers fan across the country surely predicted, Williams quickly and effectively struck out the side, and the Brewers got to catch the early flight back home.

WPA Heroes:
Andrew McCutchen +54.1 (3-4, 1 BB, 1 HR)
Freddy Peralta +38.9 (6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 SO)

WPA Zero:
Hunter Renroe -5.4 (0-5, 3 SO, 4 LoB)

The Brewers head back to AmFam for a three-game set against the Northsiders. The Cubs will put the infamous TBD on the mound against Adrian Houser as the Brewers try to extend their lead in the National League Central division.