Brewers Come Home from West Coast, Set to Mess with Texas

Returning to American Family Field, the Brewers can take advantage of some home cooking, at the place where they have played .647 ball, winning 22 of 34 games. The Texas Rangers come into town, riding a miniature hot streak of four straight wins. The Rangers have a record of 37-40, six and a half games behind Seattle and in third place in the AL West.

The Brewers have cooled off of late, going 5-5 in their last 10 games. Their 45-33 mark still ranks first in the NL Central, five games ahead of St. Louis. The standings are less comfortable than they were a week or two ago, but the Crew is still sitting pretty.

Monday, June 24
Michael Lorenzen (4-3, 3.00 ERA) vs. Freddy Peralta (5-4, 4.06 ERA)
Hard to believe Lorenzen is in his 10^th year in the bigs. After playing for the Reds for seven years, he has moved around the last three years, going from Los Angeles (the Angels) to Detroit to Philadelphia, and now to Texas. He pitched a no-no for Philadelphia last year and has been a solid workhorse this year, averaging six innings per start. In his last seven starts—of which six were ‘quality starts’—he has pitched to an ERA of 1.88 and 1.02 WHIP, over 43 innings. He has changed his pitching pattern, as he throws his four-seamer only 25% of the time, compared to 35% last year. He is throwing his cutter and sinker much more, instead.

Peralta is coming off one of his best starts of the year, allowing only three hits in six innings against the Angels last Wednesday. One key for Peralta will be staying away from the long ball (duh), as he allowed four dingers in his last three games at AFF. ‘Fastball Freddy’ is at 54% heaters this year, while mixing in sliders, changes, and the occasional curveball.   

Tuesday, June 25
Andrew Heaney (2-8, 4.21 ERA) vs. Bryse Wilson (4-3, 4.24 ERA)
Heaney is the proverbial ‘tough-luck’ pitcher, as the Rangers scored two runs or fewer in five of the southpaw’s losses. Although he got a no-decision in his last start against the Mets, he struck out a season-high nine batters, helped out by 15 swinging strikes. The 11-year vet throws four-seamers as often as Peralta does, and backs it up with a slider and change. One guy Heaney won’t be happy to see is Willy Adames, who has hammered him for an impressive slash line of .467/.471/.867 in 15 career at-bats.

Wilson gave up three home runs in 4 2/3 innings last Thursday, in a 7-6 loss to San Diego. He’s given up five or more runs in two of his last three starts, so that must be worrisome for manager Pat Murphy. Wilson has started nine times and has come in from the bullpen an equal number, but for now, it looks like he will stay in the rotation. Even that distribution is a bit misleading; it counts a few programmed bulk appearances behind an opener as relief outings.

Hopefully, he can show us the ‘good’ Bryse Wilson against the Rangers, be it as an official starter or not. Since two of the top three and three of the top five in the Texas lineup are usually left-handed batters, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Murphy turn to Jared Koenig again this week. 

Wednesday, June 26
Nathan Eovaldi (4-3, 3.14 ERA) vs. Colin Rea (6-2, 3.62 ERA)
Eovaldi is a 13-year vet, now pitching for his sixth team. He missed a couple weeks in May with a groin injury, but appears to healthy, and he has had a couple solid outings in June. Eovaldi’s repertoire is led by his 95-mph four-seamer, and his splitter, which comes in at about 89 mph. He throws those two pitches about 1/3 of time apiece, and brings the hook about 15% of the time. Eovaldi is a strikeout artist with decent control. He owns Adames, limiting the shortstop to a .125/.125/.125 slash line in eight career ABs.

Rea is tied for the Brewers lead in wins (6) and IP (82) and tied for second in WAR (1.2). He failed to record a strikeout in his last start against San Diego for the first time all year, though, and he allowed five runs for the third time. Other than that, he has done well as the team’s second starter. Hopefully he can get back on track.

Players to Watch (Who’s Hot/Who’s Not)
Josh Smith (INF)
The third-year man is having a nice season, slashing .304/.393/.469 across 224 ABs this year. He mostly plays at third base, but has filled in at shortstop when Corey Seager missed some games earlier in June. In his last four games, he is 6-for-13 with two homers and five RBIs.

Brice Turang (2B)
Turang is having a great year, and is on pace for a 50-steal season, which would be the first for Milwaukee since 2016 (when Jonathan Villar swiped 62 bags). In the last week, Turang has slashed .367/.406/.600. He's making a credible All-Star case.

Marcus Semien (2B)
The two-time All-Star and former Gold Glove winner has struggled recently, going just 2-for-22 in his last six games. Overall, he is slashing .252/.318/.416, but he did have a bases-clearing double in a 6-2 win over Kansas City Friday night. His 43 RBIs lead the team.

Jackson Chourio (OF)
The young phenom is having a Jekyll-and-Hyde season, but the promise is definitely there. He was 3-for-19 in his last seven games prior to Sunday, but he chipped in with four RBIs and a stolen base in that otherwise tough span. Murphy kept him out of the starting lineup on Sunday, but he pinch-hit for Tyler Black and went 2-for-2 with a double. He should be ready to rock and roll on Monday against Texas--though we might still be learning what the new roster and lineup will look like, with Black in the mix and Garrett Mitchell returning to the fold.

Prediction
Texas is hot lately and the Brewers are lukewarm at best, but we are talking about American Family Field, where the Brewers have won two out of every three games this year. So, let’s go with that. The teams will split the first two games and then Milwaukee will take the final game of the set.