Brewers Looking to Create Leeway in Division Amid Trip to Pittsburgh

One division rival series bleeds into another, as the Brewers leave St. Louis and head to beautiful PNC Park. The Bucs are off to a solid start, trailing just behind the Brewers - and with a chance to leapfrog them in the standings if they can take the series win.

Monday, April 22nd
Joe Ross (1-1 4.91 ERA) vs. Jared Jones (1-2 3.13 ERA)
An infield single, another single, a bloop single, a run-scoring ground out, a run-scoring passed ball, catcher’s interference, another RBI infield single, base on balls from a pitch clock violation, a two-run single that landed in front of the center fielder followed by an RBI single that landed in front of the left fielder. This is the nightmarish bad luck that plagued Joe Ross in his last start. The takeaway? This early in the season, those numbers are going to be heavily inflated by this mess. The big picture is a far more optimistic image of Ross, as a pitcher who’s limiting hard contact and getting lots of ground balls. Let’s hope his luck swings the other way on Monday.

Controversy decorated the latest start by the promising Pirates rookie righty Jared Jones. Despite Jones pitching five shutout, one-hit innings against the Mets, Pirates brass stuck to his innings limit and pulled him. This year is starting to look like a copy and paste of last season, with some Cinderella optimism to start things off (quickly squandered) and a quick descent into irrelevance. If the Bucs hope to skirt that narrative, they need to let Jones go deeper into games, because he’s been dominant.

Tuesday, April 23rd
Wade Miley (0-1 5.14 ERA) vs. Bailey Falter (1-1 4.05 ERA)
Exemplar of grit that he is, Wade Miley is making this start despite the fact that his last one was abruptly punctuated by Manny Machado smacking a comebacker into the veteran’s kneecap. Another pitcher on the IL could be disastrous for the red-hot Brewers, but luckily, Miley escaped serious injury. With a slight delay to the start of his season, Miley has barely put up a sample size worth analyzing. Seeing how he can handle Pittsburgh’s pesky lineup should give better insight into what he’s working with this year.

In his young career, the sample that Bailey Falter has put up suggests that things are really coming together for the former Phillies southpaw. Traded to the Pirates for Rodolfo Castro in a rare post-deadline deal last year, Falter found himself an expendable member of the Phillies, as they were in pursuit of a playoff berth and Falter was out of options. He’s only 20 innings into the season, but for a pitcher who throws to contact, it’s worth recognizing him for suppressing power off the bat and limiting walks. His FIP ticked up a bit, and while Falter is far from All-Star-caliber at this point, the potential indicators of his trajectory could indicate a quietly effective weapon in the Pirates rotation.

Wednesday, April 24th
The Milwaukee Brewers vs. Quinn Priester (0-1 8.31 ERA)
Drafted out of high school in the first round in 2018, Quinn Priester made his big-league debut last year. It hasn’t been smooth sailing for the young righty, who in 54 innings in the majors owns a 7.74 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP. The peripherals aren’t exciting, either. Other than getting a decent number of ground balls, Priester is struggling in nearly every metric that exists. Most inauspicious, perhaps, is that in his most recent start, the slider that he normally relies on most seemingly disappeared, and consequently, he gave up three homers to the Red Sox. Priester is far too young and has shown far too much potential to give up on him, but it is fair to wonder how it is that he’s in a major-league rotation.  

As of Sunday evening, the Brewers have not announced their starting pitcher.

Thursday, April 25th
The Milwaukee Brewers vs. Mitch Keller (2-2 4.80 ERA) 
A cursory perusal of Keller’s career will find a bevy of mentions of a burgeoning ace. The potential that defined Keller’s ascent hasn’t really come to fruition, and it seems likely that he’ll settle in as a back-of-the-rotation arm. The outset of this year looks like a bit of bad luck for Keller, as his FIP sits quite a bit lower than his actual ERA, but xERA projects those numbers to climb slightly. The hard-hitting Crew should provide a challenging proving ground for the Bucs hurler.

As of Sunday evening, the Brewers have not announced their starter for this one, either. Freddy Peralta pitched Friday, though, so he would be on regular (five days') rest for this one, by the Brewers' evolving standard.

Players To Watch
Jared Jones: He’s described a bit above in the Monday matchup, but I think there are few things worth watching more in an opposing team than a potential prodigy in the works. Though the season is young, Jones is bewildering, overpowering and striking out batters at a dazzling rate. He’s also on a pitch limit, so it seems like he does what he can to leave it all out on the table in the time he has. If you can separate yourself from team loyalty and allow yourself to marvel at raw talent, there’s a good chance Jones will be serving some.

Ke’Bryan Hayes: On a team composed of largely unsung but impressive talent, Ke’Bryan Hayes is perhaps the most underrated. The slick-fielding third baseman commands the hot corner with enough prowess that he won the Gold Glove last year. His bat is never going to dazzle you, but his quiet mastery of the fundamentals makes him key to what has been a successful start for Pittsburgh. Getting on base hasn’t always been a strong suit for Hayes, but his walk rate this year is near the top of the league. 

Hoby Milner: It’s probably not anyone’s immediate instinct to pay special attention to a middle reliever, but Milner was literally one of the best bullpen arms in the game last year, and no one outside of Milwaukee seemed to notice. There’s more emphasis on the importance of his game this year with Devin Williams being injured and Joel Payamps and Abner Uribe looking a bit shaky to start the season.

Brice Turang: The Brewers' 2018 first-round pick already had an OPS+ of 130 before he golfed a two-run homer off of Miles Mikolas in the team's drubbing of the Cardinals this past Saturday. With so much potential shining in the lineup it might be easy to forget that Turang’s ceiling is sky-high. If he can actualize into the power/speed player his tools suggest that he might be, he figures to be an indomitable force.

Predictions
The Brewers just swept the Cardinals in convincing fashion, while the Pirates seem to be sputtering. There are some questions in the Brewers rotation that leave them vulnerable, but I still think they win the series fairly easily. Three out of four.