How Will the Brewers' Young Hitters Fare as the Lights Get Brighter?

More than anything, the Brewers’ only loss in an otherwise successful series against the Mariners came because Dustin May put them in a 7-0 hole after two innings. Even after that, the offense battled back to make it a close 7-5 loss. Milwaukee might even have notched a three-game sweep, if not for a few poor at-bats that quashed potential late-inning rallies.

Trailing 7-2 in the sixth, William Contreras and Christian Yelich walked. Andrew Vaughn singled to load the bases with nobody out for Luis Lara. Lara watched a pair of strikes to go down 0-2 (including a pitch fully inside the zone that he thought was a ball) before chasing an Eduard Bazardo sinker up and away.

“The pitch before that might have been a ball, I don't know, but he let that really bother him,” Pat Murphy said postgame. “Then he went to the next pitch, and he wasn't as focused.”

After Joey Ortiz’s sacrifice fly plated the runner from third to make it 7-3, Cooper Pratt stepped up with two outs. After Bazardo executed a back-door sinker for strike one, he missed badly with two sweepers to put Pratt ahead 2-1.

Hitters say that there are no longer true fastball counts in the modern game. For the most part, they’re correct. The league fastball usage has steadily decreased throughout the pitch-tracking era, particularly since the turn of the decade. In 2015, hitters saw fastballs on 70.9% of pitches when ahead in the count. This year, that rate is down to 64.4%, a significant difference.

This was a rare fastball count. The Mariners still had a four-run lead, and Bazardo had fallen behind on non-competitive breaking balls with leadoff hitter Brice Turang on deck. He needed an in-zone pitch to regain count leverage. Pratt didn’t need to sell out for velocity, but he needed to be ready to pull the trigger on a fastball over the heart of the plate.

He wasn’t. Bazardo planted a sinker right down the middle, and Pratt watched it go by for strike two. That set up a chase on a sweeper that nearly hit the dirt for an inning-ending strikeout. Positioned for a big inning, the Brewers barely scratched across a run.

Pratt had a shot at redemption in his next at-bat in the eighth, coming up as the tying run with runners on the corners in a 7-4 game. In a similar setup, Seranthony Domínguez fell behind 2-0, first with a sweeper that bounced in the other batter’s box, then a fastball yanked low and away.

Again, Pratt needed to be ready for the fastball. He got it again and swung—but this time, he probably shouldn’t have. It was a sinker barreling toward the inner third of the zone. Pratt was late and got jammed, bouncing a double play to second that plated a run but left the bases empty while still trailing by two. It would be the last run the Brewers scored.

“Pratt's last two at-bats, he just left the zone and left the zone [again],” Murphy said, referring the second time to a pitcher’s pitch that Pratt should have taken with no strikes. He was out of the lineup the following day, with Ortiz starting at shortstop, instead.

Just three months apart in age, Pratt and Lara are traveling similar paths. Both are trying to establish themselves in the big leagues during a playoff push after signing pre-debut extensions. Both have been valuable from the get-go, thanks to their defense: Pratt already has 4 Defensive Runs Saved at shortstop, while Lara is at 1 Out Above Average in right field.

Offensively, it’s been a mixed bag. That was expected. Pratt has posted better results (97 wRC+) than Lara (84 wRC+), but Lara’s at-bats have arguably been better. His .325 xwOBA and 91 DRC+, metrics that focus on plate discipline and contact quality, are higher than Pratt’s. Lara’s ball-strike recognition has been impressive for his age, as he’s chased just 21.7% of pitches outside the zone. After that strikeout, he bounced back with a line-drive single up the middle in his next at-bat.

Pratt deserves some grace for a pair of rough at-bats in his first game back from a hamstring injury, but his swing decisions were less refined in the minor leagues. At times, he’s shown a knack for the measured opposite-field approach the Brewers wanted to see before he grows into his raw power, but his chase rate had been ballooning in recent weeks, even before the injury.

“Those kids are 21,” Murphy said. “Sometimes in this league, when you're 21, you make those kind of mistakes. [Jackson] Chourio’s made them. He's done the same thing. So they'll have to learn from it.”

Now is the time for those lessons. The Brewers aren’t asking Pratt or Lara to be their most important bats as rookies, but if they start games in the postseason, they could hit in pivotal situations. To succeed in those moments, they’ll need to stay mentally grounded and have smart at-bats. Milwaukee is constantly striking a balance between developing and competing in the big leagues, and they're experiencing both sides with their two youngest players.

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