Monitoring the Seasonal Workloads of Brewers' Top Relief Arms

Historically, there is a strong correlation between a team having starting pitching that goes deep into games and making the playoffs. Since 2021, 66 percent of the teams who have made the playoffs were in the top 10 in the league in starting pitcher innings thrown per game. However, 2023 provided us with a couple of significant exceptions. The Rays and the Dodgers won 99 and 100 games, while being in the lowest third of the league in innings pitched by starting pitchers. 

Those teams thrived by having bullpens that were as effective late in the season as they were in April. They managed workloads on their key bullpen pitchers throughout the season. The bullpen innings total isn’t as important as the load management for key pitchers within that bullpen. 

How the Brewers are doing at this load management may be cause for some concern. Each of the Brewers’ top five relief pitchers is on pace for either more innings or more appearances this year than last. Here's the breakdown, with appearances listed as a percentage of all team games, rather than a raw total.

* Totals include minor-league innings and appearances. 

Individually, these may be a statistical quirk of matchups early in the season, but taken together, they constitute a troublesome trend. The Brewers' top five relief pitchers are on pace to pitch 16% more innings and be used in 5% more games than last year. Particularly concerning are the usage level for Milner and the usage and projected innings for Peguero. 

The season is young, and early trends can turn around quickly. At a game-by-game level, there doesn’t seem to be a glaring mismanagement of the bullpen. Baseball seasons are day-by-day battles that are each part of a long, drawn-out campaign. This may be a case of a new manager focusing a bit more on the day-to-day, with hopes that the long-term trend will turn around. 

And it well might. A Devin Williams return after the All-Star Game would be huge in adjusting workloads for every other bullpen arm. Adding a closer means fewer innings for everyone else. The Brewers may be able to use this as an opportunity for a little rest and reset for a specific pitcher who has had heavy use.

Relying on a Williams return may be a bit risky. Finding innovative ways to increase the use of the other bullpen pitchers may be a more immediate response. Using openers and/or piggyback starters to limit the appearances and innings of core late-inning relievers could help alleviate some of the strain. Tampa Bay wins with heavy bullpen usage through the use of openers or stacking bulk inning pitchers. If the Brewers can increase the innings of Trevor Megill, Jared Koenig or J.B. Bukauskas (and other shuttle arms) by using them creatively, this will limit the number of innings heaped upon the back-end bullpen arms.

The Brewers are not going to win the division with traditional starting pitching that goes deep into games. To stay strong through a long season, they will have to find ways to balance their bullpen innings and reverse a troubling trend of overusing their key contributors.