The Outlook is Bright for the Brewers in the Division, But Only a Flicker of Hope for a Bye Exists

The Brewers are currently the MLB team most likely to win their division. This is more like waiting for the leaves to start falling than an actual division race. It is going to happen; the only question is when. The magic number for clinching the division is three, with 13 games to play. The rest of the Central division has proven mediocre, so there hasn’t been a divisional race since July. FanGraphs website has the Brewers with a 100% chance of winning the division. If anything, they're low.

Perhaps MLB was thinking of this type of scenario when they came up with the current playoff format. In today’s MLB, the top two division winners get a first-round bye in the playoffs. The division winner with the third-best record gets a three-game series in the Wild Card round. As Brewers fans, we have seen how difficult that series can be. Even with the division all but sewn up, the potential to secure that first-round bye keeps us interested in baseball. Can the Brewers secure a bye?

This is where things currently sit among the division leaders in the race for a bye:

The Brewers are in two separate races: one with the Phillies, and one with the Dodgers. If they win either of these races, they secure the bye. Chasing two teams is better than chasing one, but FanGraphs gives the Brewers only a 6.5% chance of clinching a bye. They also gave the Brewers a 14.5% chance of winning the division at the beginning of the season. Overcoming FanGraphs odds is a very Brewers thing to do.

Beating the Phillies
This race is likely to be decided over the next three days. The Phillies and the Brewers square off against each other this Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday in Milwaukee. The Phillies, recognizing the importance of this series, have the top of their rotation lined up. The matchups are:

In addition, having used seven pitchers in yesterday’s loss, the Brewers are a bit short on quality bullpen arms for the Phillies series.

After the Phillies leave town, the Brewers finish the year with four games at home with the Diamondbacks, who are fighting for a Wild Card berth; three against the Pirates; and a final three against the Mets, who may be fighting down to the end of the season for that final slot. The Phillies do have four against those Mets right after the Brewers series, but then they face the Cubs and the Washington Nationals to close things out.

The tiebreaker, if both the Phillies and the Brewers end up with the same number of wins, is head-to-head record, and the Phillies swept the Brewers in a three-game series earlier this year. The Brewers' chances to catch the Phillies largely hang on their ability to not only win the series, but sweep the Phillies in Milwaukee. Even if they do this, the schedule after this series still favors the Phillies.

According to FanGraphs, the Phillies have a 94.3% chance of clinching the bye. The Brewers chose not to work to line up the top of the rotation against the Phillies, because this isn’t the team they are more likely to catch. The Dodgers are.

Beating the Dodgers
The Dodgers aren’t playing their best baseball right now. They have a record of 4-6 over their last 10 games. They are currently two games ahead of the Brewers. The Dodgers, having won the head-to-head series, also win the tiebreaker. For the Brewers to claim that last bye, they will have to pick up three games on the Dodgers over the last 13.

It is possible, but also unlikely. FanGraphs calculates the Dodgers' probability of achieving the bye at 89.7%. After a weekend wraparound series concludes with one game against the Braves on Monday, the Dodgers face two of the worst teams playing major-league baseball, in the Rockies and Marlins. The Dodgers always seem to get to eat cupcakes in September. They then face the Padres, a team that may still be in contention, for three and finish with another series with the ski bunnies in Denver.

A hopeful outcome is that the Dodgers lose on Monday to the Braves, and then lose one series out of the three against the cupcakes. Take some solace that the Rockies are 6-4 over their last 10 games. If the Dodgers also lose the series to the Padres, they end up going 6-7 over their last 13 contests. The Brewers would have to go 9-4, in that case. They could get there by winning each series through the end of the year, sweeping one of them. A five-game winning streak someplace in the last 13 would surely help.

If the series against the Phillies goes badly and the Dodgers sweep the Rockies this week, it may be time for the Brewers to focus more on resting players than clinching the bye. But for now, there is still a chance. Is there such a thing as Murphtember? We will soon find out.