What Are The Brewers' Playoff Odds & Can They Capture A Bye?

The Brewers, as of today, August 6, 2024, have a record of 62-49 and are six games ahead of the Pirates and Cardinals in the Central division of the National League. If they maintain their .559 winning percentage, they will win 90.5 games this year. This is the first of a series of articles exploring the Brewers' odds of making it into the postseason. With 49 games left, what must the Brewers do to make the playoffs? Win the division? Or secure a first-round bye in the playoffs? For statistics and probability rates, we will rely heavily on the excellent work from FanGraphs.

Making the Playoffs
When giving the Brewers a 50% chance of winning each remaining game, they have an 85.3% chance of making the playoffs. This has a lot to do with their likelihood of winning the division rather than their standing among other wild card teams. Although the Brewers would currently lead the wild card standings, they are only three games out of losing a wild card slot and missing the playoffs if some other team beats them out for the NL Central title.

Winning the Division
Considering the mediocrity on display within the NL Central, winning the division buoys the Brewers' playoff chances. If the Brewers maintain their current winning percentage and finish with 91 wins, the Pirates or Cardinals would need to win 69% of their remaining games to tie with the Brewers at the end of the year. This result, although possible, is unlikely for teams that have shown themselves to play .500 ball so far this year consistently.

If the Brewers simply win half their games for the rest of the season, they will still win 87 games. FanGraphs gives them an almost 77% chance of winning the division in this scenario. Every other division team has an under 10% odds of capturing the pennant. The Brewers' chances improve against the Cardinals but diminish slightly when compared to. The Pirates when we look at each team’s schedule for the remaining games. The Brewers' opponents winning percentage is .492. The Cardinals' is 499. The Pirates have the easiest schedule going forward with a .484 opponents winning percentage.

The Brewers would likely have to underperform their current record to give the Cardinals and Pirates a legitimate shot at winning the division. This is a possibility, considering Yelich's loss and record over the last month. If the Brewers simply go .500 over the next 49 games, then either the Cardinals or the Pirates would need to win 60% of their games. It's still unlikely for these teams, but it's possible. An eight to ten-game winning streak by either “contending” team would lower their winning percentage required for the rest of the games to around .50%.

A First Round Bye
In today’s Major League Baseball, the top two division winners get a first-round bye in the playoffs. The third-division winner is treated much like a wild card entry. All they get for winning the division is a gold star placed next to their name in the wild card round of the playoff bracket and perhaps a pat on their collective heads. That gold star isn’t worth much except for the home field advantage in the wild card round, which the first wild card team also receives. Can the Brewers secure a bye?

The teams they are chasing have projected win totals of 95 games based on their current winning percentage. The Brewers must win 65% of their remaining games to reach 95 wins. In June, the Brewers' best month, they won 59% of their games.

The Brewers likely will have to count on creating their own hot streak and either the Phillies or the Dodgers falling from their season’s pace. If the Brewers match their hot June the rest of the way, and either the Phillies or Dodgers play closer to .500 ball, then there is a chance for the Brewers to get a first-round bye. The good news is that the Brewers only need one of the two teams to falter, not both.