What NL Central Team Is The Biggest Threat To The Brewers This Season?

The Brewers weren’t supposed to be leading the National League Central this year. National pundits felt they would be rebuilding or retooling or just not that good. It isn’t a surprise to Brewers fans that the team has put together the pieces to be a winning team. What is surprising is just how poor the competition has been. No other team in the NL Central has a winning record. If this was the sausage race during the sixth inning, you might wonder why only the Bratwurst is running.  

Preseason, ESPN predicted the Brewers to finish with a 79-83 record. They predicted the Cubs and the Cardinals would fight for supremacy in a mediocre central division. Will the Brewers win this division by default, or will one of the other central division teams join the race?

The Chicago Cubs: Maybe a new manager wasn’t the answer? That may seem harsh, but the Cubs do seem to be underperforming. They are 16th in baseball in runs scored but tenth-lowest in runs given up. The issue is when the Cubs are giving up runs. The Cubs have the third-worst WHIP when leading games and have given up the second-most home runs in late and close games. 

Of the central division teams, The Cubs may have the easiest path toward contending. Their starting pitching corps is good but the relief pitching is 24th in the league in ERA. Either through figuring things out internally or through trades for a reliever or two, the Cubs could quickly increase their potential to win close games. On offense, two veteran players (Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson) have been underperforming so far this year. If they can perform to expectations, the Cub's offense is better than the league average. And if they are buyers at the deadline, they could try to go big.  

The St. Louis Cardinals: The St. Louis Cardinals just don’t score enough runs. They are 27th in runs scored. The Cardinals are in the bottom third in OPS in baseball and do not have team speed to overcome poor hitting. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are underperforming and may revert to norms, but they may also just continue down their aging curves. Pitching is league average, but the top four starters are age 34 or above. It would be optimistic to expect them to continue to not miss starts due to injuries. 

The Cards have committed the seventh most errors in the league and are sixth worst in defensive efficiency. For the Cardinals to compete, they will have to see improvement in their aging stars, continue health from aging pitchers, and create some type of sustainable momentum. One potential upside for the Cardinals is the return of Willson Contreras. He could stabilize the lineup and improve on-field focus. There is always the potential that the Cards will find “their way.”  We have seen them go on late-season runs before, so it would be brash to count them out. 

The Upstart Pirates and Reds: Both teams could catch fire and make it an actual race. The Reds are scoring runs at a clip a bit better than the league average, and the Pirates are pitching better. Of these two teams, the Pirates have the greatest potential this year. Their starting pitching is getting better with the addition of Paul Skenes. And they should be able to improve the poorly performing bullpen through internal options. Going forward, the lineup may settle down as they focus on giving at-bats to those performing better. If they get hot, will management make some trades to fill holes in the outfield? Or do they stay the course and focus on the future?

Many sources thought the Reds were ready to compete this year. But their bullpen is thin, and they have trouble finding fourth or fifth starters each time they go through the rotation. The lineup is good, young, and has the potential to get better, but some outfield prospects are underperforming in their sophomore year. This is not to say the Reds cannot go on a hot streak and jump back into the race. Their offensive talent has the potential to dominate in stretches. But it seems less likely they will have the pitching to sustain them for a long enough run this season. 

If the Brewers keep winning, they can dictate how the other central division teams approach the trade deadline. Even with expanded playoffs, front offices tend not to be aggressive buyers at the deadline when their team is under .500 and seven games back in the division. If a rival goes on a run and can climb a few games over .500, they may be willing to gamble a little in hopes of securing a wildcard slot in the playoffs. However, considering how these teams have shown their deficiencies so far, this may not happen. It is possible that the Milwaukee Brewers, the team the national pundits projected not to be competitive this year, may end up winning the central division by default.