Crash2303

The ‘satche- Awesome post. Haven’t been around in awhile, but when I saw Coop’s name- had to add my weight. Could not agree more w everything u said And how you stated it. Though many players should be in over the likes Baines and Morris...cough, cough. And Dean Machine- I’m 40- so got u beat by a few years. And Eddiehitsthefoulpole- Mattingly, Murphy, and so many other Under appreciated greats say what’s up. But The HoF should be the best players of their generation. Yet No one can argue that Donnie Baseball wasn’t one of the best players of his generation- and like many forgottens stars- an injury cost him his greatness. People can make arguments for lots of guys who are in or out, but the best criteria I ever heard for The HoF is that if you have to make an argument for them to be in, they shouldn’t be in. Either way it’s frustrating the double standard logic behind so many of the entries and exclusions. Thanks for trying to bring some much deserved love to the great Cecil Cooper from a time when leading the league with 35 hrs was the measure of power.

the past few years, it seems like whoever is named opening day starter is cursed. as none of these guys are true Aces, the conspiracy theory in me, can't help but wonder if there is something psychological to it...[sarcasm]or supernatural[/sarcasm]. Here's hoping Chacin can turn it around and end the curse of the BODS. 2019: Chacin - 5.92 ERA - 5 games so far (2018: 3.50 ERA) 2018: Anderson - 3.92 ERA - lost starting role in off-season (2017: 2.74 ERA) 2017: Guerra - 5.12 ERA - lost starting role (2016: 2.81 ERA) 2016: W.Peralta - 4.86 ERA (2015: 4.72 ERA) 2015: Lohse - 5.85 ERA - lost starting role (2014: 3.54 ERA)

alright! now hopefully the rest of the picks left sign like dominoes

meanwhile in the IL- Ji-Man doin what ji-man do, hittin well. though- he kind of reminds me thus far of having the career arc of travis ishikawa. would you take the over or under on Choi outperforming Ishikawa's career?

i can't remember a year where this many brewers draftees are going to go unsigned

a couple notable ex-prospects who may be finally putting it together: * Victor Roache - though already 26 years old, he has an incredible 10 HR already at AA. classic Cardinals. * we've seen his early hot streaks before, but Michael Reed might finally be developing that power, as he has a 1.024 OPS so far, albeit in AA at 25.

I know its not a difference maker in the scope of things due primarily to the high-end OF depth at AA & AAA, but can someone explain to me why room was made for all that depth by releasing Davis as opposed to Quintin Berry? Nothing against Berry, but they seemed to fill similar niches (speed/capable batting LH) and Davis has much more upside as an advanced athlete and younger age. Even though he just turned 28, his prospect arc plays younger. as is well chronicled, he came to baseball late, didn't start his pro career until 23, and due to injuries, he's really only had three cumulative years of professional experience, so developmentally in a way should be compared to someone a couple years younger- except at 28 he's just entering his physical prime. either way- wish him well.

simple solution- swap Perez/Sogard for Orf/Dubon. although you'd be giving up experience, particularly if we're still contending the 2nd half, i think you would gain much more by giving those guys some MLB time earlier than later. I think at a minimum the younger duo matches the incumbents output offensively (albeit in different ways- lose some power in Perez, gain some OB% in Orf), positional flexibility (together, they cover all of the same positions), and defense (Dubon is probably slightly better at SS than Sogard, but Perez is probably slightly better at 2B/3B than Orf). At most though you give them a chance to get their feet wet for next year, especially for Dubon who has much more upside than all three of those guys and might challenge Villar at 2B, depending on what Villar shows this year. In addition, there is also a likely chance that one or both Perez/Sogard could be traded for some assets like rookie level lottery tickets, international pool money, or some AAAA relief depth. Whether it comes this season or not- by the start of next year i hope to see this switch.

probably too late- but if not- would there be enough interest to whip up a Madison team through MSCR?

It seems like we ve had good fortune w Brewer retreads ie cirillo, seitzer, overbay, Jeffress and was looking forward to our all time K leader recapturing some magic for one more year even if it was in the pen and reviving his career a bit longer. The signing actually reminded me most of when the packers brought back Ahman green for one more year. Oh well- good luck to you yo.

Ditto on ray/Norris but not sure the tigers would, or for that matter even the brewers. I think they are really hoping he bounces back and regains his value. But I'm calling it early: brewers acquire fulmer at the trade deadline.

I was struck by people's responses after this was laid out as a potential asking price. yes, you have to give to get and seldom do you feel like something is a "steal". this is not a comment on the package, but a brewerfan observation regarding the proposed package. first, it seems like there was unified consensus of 'damn, that's a lot to give up', but in addition a strong contingency feeling that 'who knows if any of the prospects pan out and Archer is worth it". I'd say, historically, this community has never been accused of undervaluing its minor league assets. in trade proposals, we are constantly reminded to 'flip the script' and be more realistic. this is really the first time I've ever felt that generally, as a forum, we are undervaluing our assets. I feel like in the past we would have thumbed our noses at a trade proposal like HighHeat19 hinted at. if this is true, is it that we are being swept up in the excitement of making a splash and ramping up our window to include this year. or is it that we're finally seeing more realistically what the value of prospects really is. I do think the yelich trade was a reality-check for some of us, myself included- of what it takes to get elite players, and the overpay needed to put a team over the top. but, I also wonder if we are buying in so much to the market value that we might be losing sight of actual value. obviously there is a difference between player value and market value. I understand that the market value right now for young, controllable TOR guys is exorbitant. and this varies from year to year as different trends come and go ie, pitch framing catchers a couple years ago, and conversely this year with the devaluation of pitchers and to a lesser extent position players, who are on the wrong side of 32. the commodity of these young guns is scarce. however, their scarcity may inflate their price beyond their actual value. In addition, there is also team value/need. when a team has a plethora of young, talented OFers like the Brewers do, our excess diminishes their value, whereas a team who is a solid reliever away from contending, would put an enormous value on that commodity, even if solid relievers weren't highly valued in the market. balancing all three of these is important. I guess, my hope is that the Brewers don't lose sight of capitalizing on the value of our own assets in our quest to fulfill our needs. One example of all of this is Domingo Santana. he is only 25, controlled for four more years, just put up 30 HR and hasn't even tapped his power potential as he's not even entered his physical prime yet. he has true 40 HR potential as well as great OB skills. as people have mentioned Yelich is about ready to break out- the exact same thing could be said about Santana. even factoring his subpar defense, he put up a 3 WAR season last year. his track record and trajectory throughout the minors and majors suggests strongly that it is not a one year fluke. he offers tremendous value to a team and am amazed that his market value doesn't seem higher based on trade hypothesized proposals around the league. Whereas Archer, my all accounts a great pitcher only put up a 3 WAR in the past two seasons combined. now, comparing WAR pitchers vs position players has its own merit of controversial discussion. that's not my point. the point is that both seem comparable in terms of player value. it seems team need and positional scarcity are the things that are primarily different. but, are there really that many 25 year old budding big-time hitters available? We need 1-2 additional TOR to raise us to the next platform. I get that. it seems Stearns is valuing reducing uncertainty percentages with already established guys, who are still cost-controlled. I get that. but, I wonder why Santana doesn't have similar value and am interested if others noted a change in brewerfan prospect values.

interesting tidbit that actually might play into all of this. Of all first basemen in the last fifteen years with at least 750 innings, Travis Shaw has the best DEF at 4.2, and an excellent UZR/150 of 15.2, which is second only to the AAAA great Ryan Shealy. obviously super small sample, but tifwiw. if nothing else, if Stearns likes puzzles, could be a much more complicated way to address first base. who knows- crazier things have happened- Yuny B was starting for first for us in 2013 because five guys got injured on our first base depth chart. good to know we've got options, I guess.

I did some stat digging on braun's 3B exploits in 2007 and found some interesting things that i think could be extrapolated to give us a better ideas of how he'd perform at 1B. First, some assumptions, yes- as has been well documented he was atrocious, historically atrocious at 3B. However, it was his rookie year, and there was a good chance had he stuck there his fielding and accuracy would have improved ie Weeks, who also was historically awful at 2B and grew to be 'only terrible'- hey, improvement is improvement. unfortunately, since Brauny hasn't been in the infield in 10 years whatever gains he would have made are obviously negated, and is reasonable to expect would be worse (at least at third base). I am also assuming that his range in the infield would have decreased since he was 23. public assumption- braun was terrible defensively at third, but most of that came from throwing errors. good news- MOSTLY TRUE. in 945.1 innings, he committed 26 errors; 9 fielding and 16 throwing (and one mystery error that was not categorized as either) for an unsightly .895 FP. take out his throwing errors and he now raises that...excuse me, actually lowers it to .871- eek. however, to put that in some context, in 2017, Nick Castellanos was rated as the worst third baseman by most metrics of all qualified hot corners in the bigs. his fielding percentage was .939 (11 fielding; 6 throwing) in 1098.1 innings. excluding his throwing errors, his pure fielding percentage was in Braun territory at .875. So, fielding-wise, Braun moved up Weeks-like and was 'only terrible.' I don't know how his pure range was at third, because all of the advanced defense metrics i know factor in outs converted, which is diminished for braun due to the exorbitant number of throwing errors. is there a stat that just measures 'getting to a ball' regardless of whether an out was made- like UZR, but without the outs? until that is known- we'll have to bank on these range stats: 2.11 RF/9 (League avg 2.59), -20.1 RngR, .564 RZR. YIKES. this would say that his range was possibly even worse than his fielding, but again, i believe it is so low because of the amount of errors he had. considering he was a SS in college, and is pretty fast and athletic, especially at 23, he probably had decent, or average range aka ability to get to balls, unless he had terribly slow reaction time, which could also be a factor- who knows. let's just assume then he had league average range. Now- how does all of this translate to 1B? well, for starters, obviously first basemen do not throw nearly as much as do 3B- so, he's got that going for him. and it would stand to reason that fielding would theoretically remain the same. I looked at several players who played a lot of 3B and a lot of 1B and indeed affirmed that to be the case- there is little variance on actual fielding error percentage from positional switches 3B & 1B. Ryan Zimmerman is a good example of that (and coincidentally in Braun's draft class). Zimmerman's last fulltime season at third was in 2013 where he had 21 errors (6 fielding;15 throwing), similar to Braun, ratio-wise and mirror Zimm's career ratios, but was by far his worse defensive season. His throwing errors consistently put him near the bottom of the bunch year end and year out in that category- and might be what we'd expect from Braun in that way. But in terms of fielding the ball, Zimmerman committed 1 actual fielding error/207 innings. In comparison, last year at 1B, Zimmerman (though two years younger than Braun will be this season), committed 1 actual fielding error/232 innings. this also echos closely to Zimm's career splits. so very comparable by position, albeit slightly improved at 1B. Looking at a positional switch, it could be expected that Braun would provide the same, or slightly worse, actual fielding performances as he showed at 3B in 2007, which would put him at the bottom of the league, but still passable. the more important question is how does this compare to Thames and Aguilar, who by most accounts are regarded as terrible defensive first basemen? Thames actually had pretty average fielding rates- 1 actual fielding error/214.2 innings. whereas, Aguilar was the worst in the majors (over 500 innings) committing 1 actual fielding error/168.1 innings. However, this is astonishingly much better than Braun's 1/105 at 3B. even giving Braun the 1B fielding boost, it would go up to about only 1 error every 120 innings. they are in the same category range when including throwing errors, so not much changes there. but, what do the advance metrics say about our lugging two-headed monster? well, due to the small sampling, many of the measures are probably skewed, like DRS. but, in the congregate, thames grades out slightly below average, which is about middle of the pack for first basemen- including a -2.6 UZR/150 and Aguilar sporting a lower tiered -3.6 UZR/150 is consistently bottom rung. It is challenging to say how Braun would grade out here because of the limitations expressed earlier with range, but assuming as we also said above, he had average range at 3B, we'll reduce it to slightly below average range and looking at athleticism, i would want to believe that Braun would have at least, no worse range than Thames at 1B. so, giving him that, combined with his terrible fielding, he would probably expect to have some pretty bad metrics. I also don't know the metrics that delineate the fielding errors from the receiving errors- and a way to measure a first baseman's ability to rescue or get to thrown balls from the infielders. which to some factored extent is height. braun is 6'2", Aguilar 6'3", Thames 6'0". i'm guessing Braun might have the biggest leaping ability. no clue who is the best at extending and digging balls out of the dirt. someone else can provide that added depth. with all that said- this was a huge waste of time lol. i guess it really told me very little i already didn't know. Braun was a terrible third basemen, which would probably make him a terrible first baseman, though not nearly as bad as he was at third. in fact, he could probably make due, though unfortunately, most likely be a downgrade even from Jesus Aguilar. the question then would be how much of an upgrade would the outfield be without him there and is that a defensive net positive, team-wise? i think it would be- depending on which outfielders are still on the roster of course, but assuming santana is dealt and at least one of phillips/broxton stays- braun to 1b would most likely put Yelich in LF, Cain still in CF, and Phillips/Broxton in RF. someone else again, can do those calculations- but my guess that would be a net gain, in particular, because of the little defensive value put on 1B. not sure on that, but i read that somewhere. what would really be great, would be to bring up Garrett Cooper and his .366 average....oh wait. j/k. i think a comparison for braun might be corey hart- played the outfield in the majors and out of need came to play first after Fielder left. by all accounts was fast and athletic, though fairly stiff. though not known for great defense, he played a lot of 3B in the minors, and his 6'6" frame made up for some of his defensive shortcomings. on the otherhand, and more objectively, he's one of the worst first basemen of the past fiftteen years. for reference, here's how he stacks up against other brewer firstbasemen in that time: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=500&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d

and Oliver "the survivor" Drake lives another day.

This list was more just a compilation of young,proven, cost-controlled pitchers by the criteria I tried to lay out in one post to get a look at who is actually out there and if the brewers had assets that made sense to get them as that is what I believe they hope to bring back from a Santana based trade. Thanks to those who added others too- great suggestions. The trade ideas below them are intended as starting points for discussion and are not actual trade proposals.

Forrest Snow signed with the Rays- loved those K numbers, hope he finally gets to the majors. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/minor-mlb-transactions-12618.html

No idea what value GMs have for Santana, but after seeing how much Yelich was traded for, I would have to think a somewhat comparable package at least value-wise would be on the table for Domingo. He’s a year younger and hasn’t even hit his hitting prime yet. Although his defense is subpar, Yelich’s WAR will equalize moving to RF and Santana is going to be a monster hitter. A deal based around Santana and pitching prospects, should be able to net us a young, cost-controlled TOR. Below is a list of guys I targeted who've performed at TOR-like level the past two years, who are under 30, under contract for at least 3 more years on either rookie scale contracts or team-friendly contracts, with a particular target at rebuilding teams. Obviously different teams have different positional needs/interests, and some of these guys have been discussed here- but are any of them guys we should target? Michael Fulmer – 24 years old – DET – 5 more years Underwent UCL surgery this year, so could come at a discount. With V-Mart & Miggy aging not well and injured- they will be looking for young, power. Santana would be very attractive to them. I’d think Fulmer & lottery ticket for Santana and Woodruff could get the deal done. Jacob DeGrom- 29 years old – NYM – 3 more years No idea what the mets would be interested in, because I have no idea if they’re rebuilding or trying to be a contender next year. If they’re going for it again, deGrom probably not an option. Also- they’re set on corner outfielders so it wouldn’t be based around Santana for sure. Noah Syndergaard- 25 years old – NYM – 4 more years See above Jon Gray – 25 years old – Col – 4 more years Dangerous trading to our Wild Car nemesis. But, Colorado is going to need to replace some power in the outfield and 1B. Maybe a Thames/Santana package could entice them. Chris Archer – 29 years old – TB - 4 more years Although they turned down a Brinson package, TB is going to have an opening at 1B and DH and are always on the lookout for prospects. Maybe something like Santana, Thames or Aguilar, Woodruff, Peralta Aaron Nola – 24 years old – Phil – 4 or 5 more years Phillies are on the rebuild and want young, controllable talent- in which we have aplenty. A nice young outfielder like Broxton and a couple young prospects like Peralta & Ponce might get the job done. Marcus Stroman -26 years old – TOR – 3 more years Outside of Donaldson & Smoak they don’t have any hitters. Santana, Woodruff and a prospect might do the trick James Paxton- 28 years old - SEA - 3 more years Paxton is the new Mariner ace, and as they look to be competitive this year, it would take current pieces to pull him away. But, as they’re weak at LF (Gamel) & 1B (Healy), maybe Santana, Thames, Davies Danny Salazar- 28 years old – CLE- 3 more years Been discussed much recently

Darvish young-cost controlled TOR (via santana package) Anderson (proving 2016 was the real thing) Nelson (comes back by All-Star break) Hader (demonstrates ace like ability as a starter) Davies/Chacin/Woodruff filling in for Nelson (or if any above falter) that would be one of the better rotations in baseball along with our new, balanced lineup, and good defense- def. a series contender

Hot Take If we get a TOR through FA signing or Santana trade package- consider us title contenders…in fact, why not both?

Who knows what else they do and what else they can get for Santana and either Phillips/broxton plus others but at this point is Yellich/Cain really that much more of a needle mover than what they had going in to the season, especially considering the lost assets of $80 million, four top 25 prospects, and a lost #73 pick in the upcoming draft? Although other moves will play out, one can break down the different outfield scenarios with Cain/Yelich pieces with some definition. It can be broken down like this- so which outfield set would you have rather had- and how much a better team does it make us? 1) CURRENT RF-Yelich (-4 prospects), CF-Cain (-80 mil & no #73 pick), Santana trade return 2) NO YELICH/NO CAIN/SANTANA TRADED CF-Brinson, RF-Phillips/Broxton, Santana trade return 3) NO CAIN/SANTANA TRADED RF-Yelich (-4 prospects), CF-Phillips/Broxton, Santana trade return 4) NO CAIN/SANTANA KEPT CF-Yelich (-4 prospects), RF- Santana, Philips/Broxton trade return 5) NO MOVES CF-Brinson/Phillips, RF- Santana, Broxton 6) CAIN/NO YELICH/SANTANA TRADED CF- Brinson/Phillips, RF- Cain (-80 mil & no #73 pick), Santana & Broxton trade return 8) WISHFUL THINKING CF- Brinson, RF-Yelich (-4 prospects), Santana trade return Man it stings to see Brinson go. I know everyone said it was inevitable he was going to be included in the deal, but I just don’t see why that had to be. I would have loved to see a Yelich/Brinson/Braun outfield. Hard for me to believe that a Phillips, Diaz, Yamamoto,Harrison/(any minor league pitcher not named Burnes) wouldn’t have been enough. Oh well.

Hot Take Brinson will put up a higher WAR every year of Cain’s new contract, following this season, and he won’t miss him by much this year.

To add some merit to this concern, I did a quick search for players ages 32-37 in the last eight years who reasonably fit Cain's profile. who knows how Cain will actually be, but here are some trends i observed from others: defense seems to take a significant dip around 32 years, especially range factor and even moreso for centerfielders. Offense tends to see a similar significant dip around age 34. so it maybe more likely than not that Cain's defense will decrease considerably and steadily after this season, he already regressed a bit last year. however, in his last two years of the contract, he could be free to move to LF to help mitigate his defense, or earlier if Braun is moved before his contract ends in 2020. outside of 2015 in his prime hitting year, Cain has never been an elite hitter. it seems likely that he’s got 1-2 more years of hitting around .800 OPS and then offense will steadily decline from there. the money seems fine to me, and Cain, as many have noted has been one of the best players in baseball the last 3-4 years. However, with his age, so much about how I feel about this signing comes down to the extent of the no trade clause and what the buyout is for the fifth year. I think Cain will be an awesome addition in 2018 & 2019 and then begin to see some grumblings on brewerfan about him in CF the next year, particularly if he’s putting up a sub .750 OPS, with below average defense- but, even then, may still be a net positive. However, it is that age 35 & 36 seasons in ’21 & ’22 that concern me. even with a move to LF, if he is still on our roster it may be hampering to Harrison who should just be coming up…sorry. Basically, if we have trade flexibility after the 3rd year, I like the deal a lot, if we don’t- this should give us some pause, especially if its back loaded. Either way, hopefully at least one of Grisham & Ray blossom and fulfill their potential to take over in CF with Lutz not far behind. a lot of course can happen in three years.

santana def going to be traded- and i hope part of a package that brings back a TOR or reset the system with a similar package of prospects that we gave up for yelich. i would love to see Thames traded soon. And would also like to see Braun move to 1B eventually as long been suggested, but am a believer in Aguilar's hitting and think he could put up some even bigger numbers this year. so would like to see him have the chance to increase his trade value to be unloaded next offseason and braun (if still on the team) could be moved then.

Wow oh wow- hard to get any work done today- just keep checking for more updates and trying to absorb everything. I echo the general consensus that i feel from the board, stings on prospects, a bit of an overpay all around, a bit skeptical but need to withhold judgement until rest of succeeding moves are done, in short- stearns & co know what they’re doing...we hope. I really like yelich and like most people, think he'll put up even better numbers in Milwaukee and for five years cost controlled- got to like that! Like all of you, I hate to see Diaz, Harrison, & Yamamoto go. Although Harrison & diaz are high upside/high miss guys, I believe all three will find their way to the big leagues and be significant contributors. but Brinson is the one that really hurts I think he's a stud w the IT factor and could very likely be a star for years to come. However, if he never realizes that, Stearns definitely traded him at peak prospect value, which is something Melvin generally seemed loath to do. I am just struck that Brinson wasn’t worth more. Although we traded from depth, which is good, and was part of the plan all along, depth is not something to be squandered. as SoCal said, we paid a hefty price for Yelich, no doubt, but hope that it leads to me watching the brewers receive the world series trophy that has alluded us, and not the bitterness I felt when KC was hoisting their trophy with almost half the team former brewers. Cain is great too and excited about what he brings to the table, but age worries me on the back end especially in CF. he's already showed declining range there this past year. (more on that in the Cain thread) As others have noted these two moves should drastically reduce our strike outs and make a more balanced lineup up and down. and getting two proven players as opposed to a potential player makes us legit play-off contenders from here on out- and i'm sure increasing excitement for the team and raising more revenue. As apprehensive as I am at some of these issues and all this action i'm equal parts excited. stearns and team have shown to be devoted to a long-term plan and doing massive due diligence on all regards. I want to believe that this turns out to be a genius series of chess moves, but am a little anxious that it's trying to be too smart and just outsmarting yourself in the process.