It is mostly based on the fact thatt the only thing that has changed in his skillset between 2005 and 2007 was the number of singles he gave up. K rate, BB rate, GB%, ISO, HR/9 etc all stayed the same, the number of singles he gave up went up and nothing else. Couple that with the fact the Brewers had the 3rd worst defense in the NL statistically last year and it seems like a pretty safe assumption to make. 2006 looked like the year he really stepped up because his BB rate went way down but now it just sort of looks like an outlier. 2005 and 2007 are almost statistical mirror images other than BABIP, in fact 2007 is probably slightly better than 2005. The defense played a big part last year but we haven't looked at the inherited runners scored stats of our bullpen last season...I know that while Turnbow was pretty effective starting an inning often times, he had an awful year with inherited runners...Don't know the numbers across the board for the bullpen, but that is an ERA killer for the starters. I believe the stat I read was that in the 16 times T-Bow came in with runners on base, 14 times runners scored..I'm not picking on Turnbow, I still think he has value. But am curious about the rest of the bullpen..