Jay Zahn

BABIP is a fairly useless stat when evaluating hitters, since it can vary widely depending on skill. Hitters are not pitchers.

You don't think Melvin deserves any blame for all of the noteworthy pitching prospects he obtained contributing absolutely nothing? Like I said, his big acquisitions were supposed to be De la Rosa, Capellan, and Zack Jackson. None even really came close to doing anything. That has to be seen as somewhat of a reflection on his ability to evaluate starting pitching. There's also something to be said for the neglect that comes with only making deals for 3 or so pitching prospects during a long tenure, with none of those deals occurring anytime recently. Very few GMs have a consistently good record in trades or free agent signings. I suppose the really poor ones could be consistently bad, but on the top end there just isn't anyone who is going to make a productive move every time. Unless you're going to trade for somebody in the low minors your chance of getting an ace level pitcher is almost nil. When we traded Sexson to Arizona they were not going to give up Brandon Webb. We got Capuano, who actually produced fairly well for us, and de la Rosa, who'd had a good year in the minors in 2003 but who never developed while he was here. For Overbay we got Bush, who had some good years for us, and Jackson, who never developed. You are not going to get ace level talent in those sorts of trades. Your primary source for good, young, pitching talent has to be the farm system. The Brewers have failed miserably in this regard for 20 years. Producing Sheets, followed by a big gap, then Gallardo and Parra, and another looming gap, is inadequete. You need more fertile periods. In the late 1970s they came up with Travers, Augustine, Haas, and Sorenson. In the late 1980s they came up with Higuera, Wegman, Bosio, Nieves, and Plesac. It can be done. Otherwise you're living off of castoffs and scraps.

There is no "plan" to rely on "soft tossers" and Melvin has never had one. When Melvin was with Texas he traded for Aaron Sele, who was the high strikeout guy with Texas and had his best years there. He traded for CC. Unless you count trading away guys like Dempster and de la Rosa, who were years away from contributing. For the last 20 years the Brewers have not produced much pitching talent from their farm system. This limits their options in building a staff. You can sign a hard throwing ace, of course, but you need to pay 20 million a year. Even the Grade A prospects are not often available for trade; you might need to settle for A- or B prospect. The Mariners got Randy Johnson, but it was for another stud in Langston. The Red Sox got Pedro for Pavano and Tony Armas, a hard thrower who never really developed. The Brewers had to go trade Sexson to get Capuano and de la Rosa in the first place. They had to trade Overbay to get Bush. Brewers never have any pitching talent they can actually trade, so they need to come up with extra position players to do so. LaPorta went to get CC. Maybe you think Escobar was ready at the beginning of the year. I'd disagree, but that's just an opinion anyway. There was no replacement for Hart, so you'd have to bring in an additional free agent or trade acquisition to take care of his spot if he'd gone for pitching. With all the talk about "soft tossers", with the exception of Gallardo this staff underachieved its own expectations by a good margin. Maybe you can expect a continued decline by Suppan since he's 34. Maybe you can expect a decline by Looper too - who could say. The realistic alternative to Looper was Lowe, who's two years older than Looper and also a soft tosser, but is regardless having a much better season. I don't see a lot of precedent for Looper's HR rate almost doubling. Maybe you can anticipate a decline by Bush, whose best year was probably 2006 and whose rate stats have been declining in varying rates. That doesn't explain Parra, a hard thrower, taking a big step backward instead of forward. It doesn't explain Villanueva's 5+ ERA and McClung's wasted season. Melvin and the minor league development guys can fairly be blamed for the minor league pitching cupboard being bare. But this staff still never projected to be anywhere near as bad as it's been.

Monty, the June ERA for the Brewers was 5.37. With tonight's result I think July will be around 5.6. The Brewers have posted losing records in both months. To then conclude that the productivity of the offense is what will determine the team's destiny makes no sense.

Bush was doing fine until he got hurt.His ERA is 5.67 in 14 starts. Unfortunately he still pitched for a while after he got hurt, and those stats count too.

I've posted this before, but other than Gallardo, the four remaining starters plus the two long relievers and starter candidates have ALL pitched below what could be expected OF THEM. Look up their stats from the last few years, then look at this years stats. Six for six. Remember Gallardo only started four games last year. He is essentially replacing Sheets in terms of number of starts and production. We were not going to get the same quality from Looper replacing CC, but CC only started 17 games for us last year, and Looper gave us some flexibility since he would be available for more than 17 starts. The problem has been all six of the big inning pitchers other than Gallardo have disappointed to varying degrees BY THEIR OWN STANDARD. There is not really any disputing this if you look at the stats at all. This business that we knew we had a crappy staff going into the season isn't accurate. It's true the short relievers have probably been better than expected. Hoffman's been better than I thought and Coffey's having the best year of his career. This is the first full season for Stetter and DiFelice, but they've still pitched well. On balance we've lost more than we've gained, since starters are more important than short relievers. No idea what Castro's role in it is, but the pitching has been a disappointment based on what we might have expected.

I don't believe this to be really true. Sheets and CC never really pitched together. Last year, combined, they basically equalled one player of service time. Plus, we gained a full season (fingers crossed ) of Yo this year which we didn't have last year, and many people believed Yo would have been an All-Star this year if his spot in the rotation did not come up the way it did. Plus, we got to add an All Star closer this year, which we had nothing close to last year. I believe everything has evened out in that respect from last year to this year. I know it seems like Sheets and CC never pitched together, but Sheets actually did make 31 starts last year and CC 17. That's more than one player, more like one and a half. Gallardo has essentially replaced Sheets with no difference in value. CC was not going to go 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA again anyway. So in that case we were bound to get some falloff. The short relievers are not the problem. Lots of turnover from 2008 to 2009, but the performance is as good or better there than 2008. The Brewers haven't lost a ton of games because of Stetter or Hoffman or those guys. The problem is that Suppan's been a disappointment, AND Parra's been a disappointment, AND Bush's been a disappointment, AND Looper's been a disappointment, AND Villanueva's been a disappointment, AND McClung's been a disappointment. Not by the standard of CC, but by their own standard. They've all underachieved to varying degrees. I'm guessing Castro's already lost his job for next year because of this. The hitters are more of a mixed bag. Again, going by prior stats, why would you expect Hardy would be this bad? I would have expected Hart to bounce back a bit. He's held his level, mainly by taking more walks, but I still consider his season a disappointment. Even Bill Hall - he's only 29. He plays like he's 34. It's hard to get significantly worse three years running. Overall the talent hasn't performed up to its prior record. They've underachieved by their own standard. As for Macha, I will credit him for getting the team OBP up. I will blame him for turning the Brewers into a team that is incapable of stealing a base and of not keeping his bench players fresh. Overall I'd give him a D, realizing that he is not to blame for everything. But the Brewers need to show some sign of life over the rest of the season or he will be fired.

Current manager prefers Counsell to Gamel at third base.Weeks has had multiple serious injuries now and can't be regarded as a sure thing. We have no idea if Bush will be effective again. The cupboard is evidently bare for immediate pitching help for the minors. As of right now the pitchers who are likely to be back next year who have made a positive contribution this year are Gallardo, Coffey, Stetter, and DiFelice. Parra will need to make a comeback. Villanueva will need to make a comeback. McClung will need to make a comeback. Bush will need to make a comeback. Some of those might pitch better, some of those might never pitch well again. Any of the effective four I mentioned could slip back too - or they might continue to be effective. Hardy might bring in an arm or two, and that's it. In the bullpen I might be willing to take a chance, but in the rotation how excited can I be about Parra, Bush, and Suppan coming back? They'll have to come up with someone just to replace Looper. Again as I've pointed out there is apparently nothing pitchingwise waiting in the wings. Hardy will need to be traded just to provide decent depth.

With pitching this bad, and nothing on the horizon, realistically how much hope is there for next year?

I agree; I mentioned it on another thread. Other than Sheets they had literally nothing for a decade. Not even a LOOGY or guy who lasted in the rotation a couple of years. This year it really caught up to them. Ironically when they've finally gotten some production from Gallardo and Stetter, and Villanueva and Parra were at least candidates to have good years. But before that it's been a patch job every year. We had to trade good regulars to get Bush and Capuano as part of packages, and Cordero for the bullpen. Davis and Turnbow were scrap heap guys we were lucky to get a couple of years out of. Also, because the Brewers never generate an internal closer candidate, they have to go through Turnbow and Cordero and Gagne and Torres and now Hoffman, who will also need to be replaced in a year or so. It adds up.

The Brewers are not going to get a major league ready arm unless they give up major value, like Hardy, Hart, or Gamel. There is a limit to what you can get for future prospects. Some of this comes down to what the farm system has produced for the last 10 years or so. Literally nothing of any value came up through the farm system pitching wise between Ben Sheets and Gallardo/Parra. Even De La Rosa came in the Sexson deal. We were lucky to get Doug Davis off the scrap heap, but Capuano and Bush came from trading front line talent. The pitching talent that should have come up from 2001-05 could still be here helping or could be traded to fill other needs. Without it the team has one less option.

Yea. The old method for assigning the winner was rotational anyway, so nothing lost. It seriouses up the All-Star game a bit, which is good. Otherwise it was going to turn into a goof-off farce like all other all-star games. They used to play them all more serciously, but then they used to play preseason football seriously too.

Last year the Brewers led the National League in lowest GIDP, with 98. This year they've already hit into 78. This is third worst in the league, ahead of only the Mets and Houston. Moreover, the Mets and the Astros don't strike out nearly as much as the Brewers, and one benefit of the strikeout is you can't hit into a GIDP. I did a measurement of approximate GIDP opportunities, dividing the GIDP by all at-bats with a man on 1st, minus strikeouts in the same situation. (I know you can't hit into a GIDP with two out, but I don't have the splits on at-bats with a man on 1st and less than 2 out.) The Brewers were indeed worst in this regard with 10.68% GIDPs. Florida is best at 6.84%. This brings to question whether Macha's antipathy towards small ball is having much of a benefit. He's gotten the team to take a few more walks, which I like. The Brewers have lost Weeks, which hurts their steals, but still they're last in the league in both stolen bases and sacrifice bunts. Regardless, the GIDPs are way, way, up, which is doubly frustrating given that they are still a high strikeout team.

I have to disagree with most here who think Gamel should be sent out. Gamel is contributing to the team. He's playing okay. Not great, not horrible, but he's playing okay. We are in a pennant race, and it's late June. We've had a hard time coming up with contributing bench players - why be in a rush to get rid of one? Casey McGehee is hitting far over his head. We should be thankful for what we've gotten but not surprised if he cools off substantially at any time. Gamel is likely to not be Braun or Fielder. To my eyes he's likely to be Hardy or Hart - a mid level contributor. He'll turn 24 next month. As such it's likely his best years will be spent in Milwaukee, barring an early trade, regardless of exactly where his arby clock is at. Heether is a 27 year old career minor leaguer having a good year. I think it quite unlikely he'd contribute anything if called up now.

In my opinion Hall will likely be DFAed before the season is out. The main reason he's being kept around is as sort of an insurance policy in case Gamel flops offensively or defensively. Counsell and McGehee aren't suitable for 3rd long term as they don't have enough power. Had Weeks not been hurt Hall might be gone already but that's a moot point. I do realize that Hall doesn't hit enough to play 3rd base either, but I guess the Brewers are holding on to the rapidly vanishing chance that Hall will recover abilities that are likely gone for good. Once the Brewers have full confidence in Gamel Hall will be history. Hall is the antithesis of a player like Craig Counsell in his ability to adjust his game to declining abilities. Hall is still trying to do things he could do in 2005 and 2006. He can't do those things anymore. Perhaps his inability to adjust is a moot point given his declining skills.