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interestobserver

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Everything posted by interestobserver

  1. interestobserver
    Reyes is all that good and he can change the dynamic of games. He'll get 5/100 or more. Fielder is also an injury concern. Guys with his body type don't age well. That's the gamble with FA. How many actually pay off?
  2. interestobserver
    Don't believe so, I think you have to pay the buyout for the option and then any arby deal is on top of that. But it's kind of a moot point anyway since New York is paying for the buyout. Not quite a moot point, because if there is no buyout, the Mets are off the hook. Whether that affects how the deal was constructed is unknown. ie, Mets could have sent X amount of cash. If there is no buyout, that's extra money in the deal.
  3. interestobserver
    Everything comes into play. The value of the trade to the Brewers is what he is worth. An option that will not vest is not in the equation. Picks can be used create value. Money not paid together with picks means the Brewers can use those picks and select good players, replenishing any talent lost. That's the point of trading. It's not what the other guys gains or gives up so much and what you gain vs. give up.
  4. interestobserver
    In which case, picks, cash, and reliever should equal decent return. Part of what makes this so hard to judge is the facts are so murky. The only thing that's clear is that Rodriguez threw one of the most expensive punches in the history of sports.
  5. interestobserver
    The vesting option wasn't so significant since any team he would be traded to would not let it vest. Depending on who the NTC listed, he could have more leverage. However, the value of a pretty good reliever, who is paid below market cost because of $6.5 million included, and the opportunity to pick up extra draft picks should net a couple of decent players back. I doubt they're scrubs.
  6. interestobserver
    That $17.5 million vesting option is really irrelevant to the discussion. Who care’s how much an option that will never vest costs? The answer in the real world is zero. Apologies if this has already been answered. But when will we know the prospects. Also, why was this done as a PTBNL? Or do we need the answer to the first question to get the second?
  7. interestobserver
    Baseball has no legal right to impose slotting or even a draft since this is illegal restraint of trade. The union can bargain that right away, but baseball has to give up something in return.
  8. interestobserver
    Reyes early numbers last year got dinged by a thyroid condition, which was a freak reaction to shellfish. Only in 2009 when he had hamstring issues was he hurt. So, I'd expect a rebound this year since he's healthy. The Mets would only move him for real talent and if he were put on the market, there would be a bidding war. He definitely wouldn't be moved for expensive contracts. I think it's likely he resigns with the Mets. They have $50 million in salary coming off the books this year, mostly in dead money. They need him to generate attendance.
  9. interestobserver
    The Brewers waited a year too long with Fielder. There's a lot of good young first basemen coming up and the big money teams don't need one. Plus with Howard's contract and Fielder's decline in ops, his value has declined. A year ago, they could have gotten Ike Davis and Mejia from the Mets or Freeman and possibly Teheran from the Braves. Now, neither team looks to be in the market. Tampa has never shown an inclination to take on high salaried players a year from FA. They look to dump these guys, getting good value from Kazmir, among others.
  10. interestobserver
    I'm just wondering how people view this deal -- too low? too high? a good starting point? I don't stay as dialed in as others on trade offers, so I'm genuinely curious. Nolasco is a guy I'd love to see the Brewers get. Every board in baseball has a thread on getting Nolasco. The secrets out. He won't come cheap.
  11. interestobserver
    Maine at a minimum could be a good setup man if they were worried about his arm. No way he gets non tendered.
  12. interestobserver
    Every board has a thread on getting Nolasco. He's not coming for fringe players.
  13. interestobserver
    No, the two potential trades would be either Heyward and Hanson, which they don't like. Or Jurrjens, Schafer, and three prospects, presumably below Schafer in value.
  14. interestobserver
    For Hayward and Hanson of the Braves? On the Braves board, they said JJ Jurjens, Schafer, and three prospects would get it done. I though Hayward and Hanson might make the Brewers consider. What say you?
  15. interestobserver
    Why would the Mets want a guy who put up a 750 ops and would take a ding in Citifield? Maine's value is down, but if he's healthy, he's an effective pitcher for no money.
  16. interestobserver
    It would take more than Fielder to land Felix.
  17. interestobserver
    While I do think the best move is to hold onto him, Lee, and Halladay had basically 1.5 seasons in them. If they hold onto him past this trade deadline, his value drops quite a bit. Next year, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ryan Howard hit the market. They're the same type of player and supply always drives down price.
  18. interestobserver
    Why are the Bedard and Tex trades a realistic comp since they are widely regarded as a bad move? However, Santana, Halladay, or Cliff Lee are not realistic comps? If the thinking is those teams overplayed they're hands, then aren't the Brewers risking a lot by asking for too much? Unless they want the draft picks. Even use the CC trade. LaPorta was the premium choice there. Ike Davis outproduced LaPorta last year despite being over two years younger.
  19. interestobserver
    Just because the Twins asked for a better package from the Red Sox, doesn't mean it was offered. Teams trying to drive up the price, do that all the time. Boston had the incentive to pretend they were more interested than they were, since it would have driven the price up for the Yankees. If Boston really were willing to part with that package, why didn't the Twins take it? If the Brewers are intent on getting blockbuster talent back, I would bet Prince stays a Brewer, possibly even leaving by FA after next year. Teams simply refuse to give up that much young talent. And the Tex trade was considered a dud for Atlanta and a warning to overanxious GMs.
  20. interestobserver
    It could happen that way. Although the value of prospects changes dramatically. And Fielder gets more expensive. I think at that point, the Mets would rather not pay Fielder as he enters his FA years and Davis would have half a season or more of major league experience. Between now and the trading deadline, Fielder's value should remain relatively constant. After that, it takes a hit. Show me the team that needs a first baseman that also has the money. The Yankees usually drive up the price, but they're out of the market. Boston, maybe. And I'm not so sure those guys would rate higher than Davis. The next time prospect lists come out, he'll post a major jump. His ops at AA was 950 and kept climbing as the year went on. 1050 post all star break. He followed that with a very good performance in the world cup. And he's smooth with the glove.
  21. interestobserver
    Ike Davis would be the centerpiece in that deal. He can either play first, which he does very well, or right, which he does even better. He hit in the mid 90's when he pitched, so he's got a great arm. He had better stats than Smoak and Freeman this year and he should be ranked pretty decently when the new lists come out. Murphy would be an additional player. And he isn't terrible. He plays a decent first base and should ops about 800 next year. Maybe more if the Brewers play in a hitter's park. And the Santana deal is a benchmark for these types of transactions. Every team will point to that deal. Texaiara is the exception these days, and even that looks better in retrospect. Cliff Lee is another. He was coming off a Cy Young season, and had almost two years at the time of trading. Halladay didn't move because no one would ante up. Show me a recent deal where a guy brought back a huge haul when he was short. Young, good prospects are the most valuable commoditiy in baseball.
  22. interestobserver
    And what would you say would be a fair offer? Keep in mind that the offer I described is higher than what they gave for Santana, even taking into account value at the time. Fielder's current salary, more importantly his future salary, and the tendency for portly one dimensional slugger's to age portly, even if they do that one thing very well.
  23. interestobserver
    No player in baseball is worth four to five very good AAA players, especially one with two years left on his contract. When evaluating trades, it is better to use value at the time, not what panned out. For Texaiara, the Braves overpaid, but those guys also all developed making the trade lopsided. Tex was also gold glove caliber fielding. As for Santana, the Mets gave up two B+ prospects, one of whom was in A ball. One guy who was improving in Mulvey, and one guy who looked slated for middle relief before his arm blew out. That was favorable to the Mets, even at the time. The economic realities today are that teams shopping a player for salary reasons won't get the return that is expected. For the Mets, I could see an offer of: Dan Murphy - He's played a season at first. After a slow start, he's had a decent second half. He's only 24 and should improve. He can either go direct, or be cashed into a third team for a prospect. Ike Davis - He's really coming on and he's either the Mets best or second best prospect. He did very well in AA, and has a great glove. He'd be able to take first, by mid season at the latest. Earlier if they don't mind starting his arby clock. Choice of any two prospects not named Fernando, Holt, Flores, or Mejia. Familia, Thole, or Tejada would be the next three.
  24. interestobserver
    I'd sign Fielder if possible, but they'd be crazy to give him more than five years because after 30 he's going to be too fat to move.
  25. interestobserver
    Tampa would be the last team to take a guy traded for salary reasons.
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