With Arcia and pitchers spot up, sure take your chances. I don't like it at all with the heart of the order up. Personal preference I guess. Very good point, I will say these stats do need to account for the hitter but they do not. My gut feeling is that Braun does not increase the chance of scoring above the average player by more than 10%, but maybe he does. It does get closer. Thisis a cool way to adjust RE for the batter, Braun has a .400 wOBA this year, so putting that in it increases the R1R2 1 out RE from .832 to 1.104, huge increase of 33%. So clearly you cant just add 69+33 and say Villar needs to make it 102 % of the time, but maybe it does get close enough to not justify an attempt