DHonks

Very good piece that matches the eye test with data. One thing I always noticed was that pitchers that brought their hands low and way behind them tended to be sinkerballers. Derek Lowe and Jamey Wright come to mind. I don’t think either was ever known for command. Much like other sports (thinking golf) maybe a shorter motion works better for him. The author didn’t get into his changeup…must be normal. Regardless the successful Burnes has always been primarily a 1-pitch guy that happened to have decent secondary pitches. But EVERYTHING starts and ends with the cutter

When I came home from my first year of college in CA, my friends said “hey, I heard the A’s are getting a new ballpark near your college!” Would have been cool to have them in San Jose. Oh, and the year was ‘00. Glad they have some certainty finally.

I obviously don’t know if he’s figured it out, but let’s not forget that last season he was one of our most productive hitters despite bouncing between AAA and MLB. He’s clearly not who he was as a rookie, but he’s also shown some positive trends in the last year. I hope Voit and Winker turn it around, but if not, Hiura will be a good option

Thanks for posting the metrics. It’s interesting, because his defense doesn’t pass the eye test and these are not glowing reviews. However, they are showing progress. It’s always awkward how much our announcers rave about his defense. Also interesting is that his walk rate is down, but some hitting numbers are up.

It’s always worth giving guys a 2nd or 3rd chance. Jose Bautista, Carlos Delgado, Jose Guillen, Lyle Overbay, Brian Anderson, and countless others have had success after early struggles. Right now it’s maybe a small sample size, but in a few weeks it could be a legit trend worth noting. He’s likely making adjustments.

Thanks for the insights. My comment was never to say Burnes is trash. He’s really got one dynamite pitch and several others that play a lot better when the cutter is working. I’m concerned that his velocity is down 3-5 mph and his cutter isn’t cutting. However good the spin rates on the others are, let’s remember he had those pitches when he was statistically the worst pitcher in MLB—The difference being the emergence of the best cutter in baseball. We can be fine with Burnes being a 5-6IP 2-3 ER guy, but hopefully he’s able to find his feel for the cutter soon.

In 5 starts, Burnes has had one great outing. The rest have been mediocre to solid, but not Cy Young caliber. I'm not sure the sites people go to for the raw data, but the quick observations are that his velocity is down (throwing 91-93 on the cutter instead of 94-97) and he his cutter isn't moving much at all. While he has good spin rates on the other pitches, they all play off his cutter. He's getting fewer swinging strikes than much less heralded opponents. I'm sure there's data to back up what I'm describing, just not sure where to find cutter movement and velocity relative to last year. I've long said I'd try to lock up Woodruff and move Burnes when the time comes, and part of it has always been this fear that he's really a 1-pitch guy and knowing we can't keep both, especially given the contract Burnes would get as a free agent.

Mitchell’s is probably a good situation. It’s his non-throwing shoulder and his trail shoulder for batting. Most hitters that have this problem (Tatis, Sexson, etc) it’s their lead shoulder, and even a check swing can flair up. I sublexed my left shoulder and couldn’t raise my arm over my head for several weeks. The only time I have issues 17 years later is if I play softball or whiffle ball and let go early with the right hand to reach for a pitch I had committed to. For golf it’s no problem and I still hit it over 300, but in golf we never let go with the right hand

Sheets’ career was ended by a Torn Flexor tendon, which turned into eventual Tommy John surgery with the A’s. I never heard about a shoulder injury. I would have chosen former Brewers closer Mike Adams. He came back more effective and nastier than ever following his labrum repair.

Winker is going to have a hard time being a frequent DH when it’s likely occupied by Yelich 2-3 times per week and Hiura the rest

Kind of a weird comparison. Bonilla was about to get released and was done in MLB while the Mets owners were struggling after the Madoff scandal. Bonilla’s agent sought to give the owners relief while ensuring Bobby Bo had income in the future. This wasn’t built into his contract, but an end-of-the-line restructure

I think Yeli is the primary DH this year, with some time in LF. The Brewers’ statisticians likely expect some bounce back in ‘23 in part to a finally healthy Yelich AND the new shift rules. Given he led the league in hard-hit groundball outs, it’s likely that some become hits. I’d always consider trading anyone, but I don’t want to eat $75million to have him play for someone else. This is why the old August waiver period should come back. We could have tried to move guys like him, McCutchen, Wong, etc in August if someone was willing to take on their salaries. But I wouldn’t want to lose him to free agency while still having to pay every dime (remember guys could be pulled off of waivers)

I'm kind of at a loss with the Brewers. They have some players to build around and they have some talent. But they also can't afford to build long-term around their current pitchers while retaining Wong, Renfroe, etc. I see both moving on after this year. While the numbers show Wong and Adames had good years, they both were a let down more often than not with the eye test. Philosophically, they know what they value and we can only guess. In the past I've previously said I believe the reaction from MLB to the pitching labs will be finding line-drive hitters that put the ball in play. Guys like Mitchell, Ruiz, Turang, and Frelick fit the bill. Basically, I believe the launch angle-led metrics worked well 4-10 years ago when guys were throwing 92 mph and didn't have the data to help them get the most out of their arsenals. Guys that 5 years ago were hitting 30+ homers and striking out 20% of the time are now hitting fewer homers and striking out more. Two major pitching changes we've seen in the last 5 years: data analysis taught pitchers that 4-seamers up in the zone worked better than sinkers, especially when mixed with breaking balls down (ie using the verticality of the zone moreso than the horizontal). Pitchers now dominate the top of the zone. pitching labs helped optimize fastball velocity and pitch movement, These made the launch angle hitting training obsolete. Throw in the deadened ball as a factor. How many well hit balls seemed to die at the track?? We've seen teams like the Brewers shifting to drafting good hitters that use the entire field. So here's what I see happening in the offseason: Brewers letting Narvaez test the market, unless resigned for $2M or less Wong let go Renfroe traded to attempt to land us help at 3b, or potential high impact position players. Yelich is kept due to contract, but also because the analytics dept will believe that the new anti-shifting rules alone could raise his average by 20 points. Yelich becomes primary DH option Brewers either trade Urias or enter 2023 with him as primary utility player Peterson returns as either 3b or utility player Fitting my suggestion of hitters that work counts, spray the ball, have speed, and play good defense, we'll open with Taylor in RF, Mitchell in CF, Ruiz in LF, and Turang at 2b. Frelick is 4th OF playing a lot all over OF. Knowing they have several more stud OF prospects waiting in the high minors gives some comfort. This cheap lineup allows us to lock up Woodruff to a 5 year contract in the neighborhood of $100M. The team attempts to work out deals with Lauer and Burnes. If we're lucky, one signs for 4-6 years...most likely Lauer.

More time to develop how? Since being drafted, minor leaguers have clearly shown they can’t hit him. His only weakness has been walks and inconsistency in the zone. If we had waited for Hader to develop a 2nd pitch or overmatch minor leaguers, we probably wouldn’t have seen him for another year. The only developing Small can do is learning to get big leaguers out, and given his track-record there’s no reason to think he can’t.

I’ve been pondering this for a month, but now it’s more pressing. I would like to see them put Small in the rotation. Previously I wanted him to be the 6th starter with Ashby shifting to a 1-4 inning roll. In general Ashby does better when he comes into a game on a mission throwing strikes, and for some reason that doesn’t happen as consistently as a starter at present. I think his long-term future is starting though. This is similar to how Woodruff learned to trust his stuff and attack hitters as a result of bullpen duty. I’m also concerned as our bullpen has been looking for help for a while, and pretty soon Stearns will have to acquire some depth. With Peralta out and our non-Hader/Williams/Box relievers inconsistent (at best), Ashby seems a potential difference-maker in the pen. Small could be given the crack at the 5th spot, with Perdomo temporarily serving as the 6th starter and swing man.

The price plummet in 2015 was due to a myriad of factors. Primarily, OPEC was upset by the US shale industry flooding the market and lowering prices. OPEC decided to respond by increasing output, with the goal of driving American shale producers out of business. North Dakota had gone from not being in the top 10 for oil production to the #3 oil producing state. And gas was $1.25 here in Phoenix back then, which is the cheapest I’ve seen in the 20 years I’ve lived here. It wasn’t even that low in 2020.

One of the newest types of supports for stadiums is creating a special tax district. Basically take the income tax collected on the ball players, musicians, etc that use Miller park, and instead of kicking it to the General Fund, earmark it for stadium updates and a future ballpark in 30 years. This is basically what was done with Fiserv Forum, right?

You should ask fans in Cleveland, Montreal, Seattle, Oakland, San Diego, Houston, etc how it feels to be without a major professional sports team. Besides the Packers, they are our #1 most popular pro sports team. Yes, the Bucks have had a nice run in recent years...but even about 6 years ago if you asked people their favorite basketball team most would have stated the Badgers or Marquette. The Bucks had limited appeal and many were indifferent to them leaving. The Brewers have had a very nice run of sustained success in the last 15 years and they have an outstanding owner that has stated he wants the franchise in Milwaukee left to his kids to run. Losing them would have a huge impact on the city, the region, and the state. It would be an economic and psychological disaster for the area. The $200-300 you spent in taxes for Miller Park in the last 25 years is amazingly cheap. The priority needs to be to keep AmFam Field a state of the art facility that works for the city, the state, and the ball club. It's a wonderful place to watch a game.

Some posters on here may be too young to remember Petak changing his vote. I was in middle school, and went to bed crying after the vote failed twice. While I don’t like like corporate welfare, it happens every day in all parts of the country. What’s unique is that in the case of the Brewers, we get to enjoy them for much of the year because of this example of corporate welfare. I didn’t want the stadium tax to go away, I wanted it to continue to build a reserve for future sports, arts, and other civic ventures.

I have some prosumer grade access points from Ubiquiti and absolutely love the coverage. I don’t think I could go back to something like Orbi or Google

I have some prosumer grade access points from Ubiquiti and absolutely love the coverage. I don’t think I could go back to something like Orbi or Google

We don’t know that’s how it’ll work. Nelson Cruz is the rarity. Most teams are using the DH for load management rather than signing a solid aging bat. Teams just aren’t looking to fill these spots with a Harold Baines or Edgar Martinez—guys that can’t play the field.

Announcers & writers would talk regularly during his Brewers tenure about how Carlos Lee (El Caballo for those who don't remember) would choke up just a little with two strikes him to focus all the more on making contact, and that approach made a very real positive impact. Continuing this aside: A friend and I also talk regularly about how a core of Brewers hitters in the late '90s era (Cirillo & Loretta, very notably, perhaps also Vina/Surhoff/Nilsson in some part) for a couple years would take batting practice using a machine that shot tennis balls at them at around 140 mph, and the balls had particular marks on them. The whole point was training their eyes and hand/eye that much more, and it clearly paid off because those guys were really good hitters with a good eye at the plate. For the past 15-ish years I keep wishing the Brewers had guys who were just plain good hitters who typically had quality ABs and also didn't feel the need to hit the ball over the fence every time. that was a Jim Lefevbre tool

I would take him at full salary if they’re willing to kick in a prospect

I like this trade a lot. It's also good for a couple of reminders: 1) the Brewers are up against some serious budget limitations and have made a trade like many other clubs have 2) you can never have enough prospects.