I'll just borrow a post in response: Arcia was never elite. His dropoff in 2019 isnt even in the quoted numbers. Different aspects of defense deteriorate at different levels. If you look at range for Escobar, he clearly has an age related decrease in his ability to get to balls that are in the "Remote" category. Personally, my lateral athleticism gave way a long time before my forward/back athleticism decreased. Since you missed the point about Yuni, let me try to restate the conclusion first. Funny how the timing of a hot streak can negate a career of crapitude for some. To the point of Yuni having a hot streak, his career was crapitude. To the point Arcia had his hot streak his career is crapitude (worst hitter in baseball during his time in MLB - a not insignificant window; defense that is much more average for a SS than elite = overall crap). Sure, a miracle could occur and he finally gets it, like 0.1% of hitters who were crap their entire careers (MiLB and MLB) all of a sudden become good. At that point the analogy fails, because the "hot streak" was the prelude to a "break out", not just a hot streak in the middle of pretty horrible performance. Is that "reason to think"? no that's a possible outcome, not a probable outcome. As you bolded my statement "How is Arcia like either of those two?", I'll just point out one of the key words: "is". Now "is" is a present tense. You may have learned about this in school. Present tense is the present. Now. Currently. Past tense is previous time, before current (i.e. before present). There's also future tense, which represents future time/events. These will occur later or after the present tense. "Hypthetically" applies to a possible outcome in the future or to an alternate event then what happened in the past or present. Sure, Arcia could by a rare probability become a decent hitter in the future for another team and the Brewers weren't the beneficiaries of that improvement and then Arcia would be like Escobar and Segura. Possible? yes. Probable? no. Which brings me to the difference between 2 very similar sounding, but distinct words: Probable and Possible. These words refer to future events. Possible means it "can be done" without any degree of conversion from a possibility to a reality. Therefore, possible is a boolean or a true/false where something "can be done" or "can't be done". Something is either possible or not possible. Probable is related to a word called probability or likelihood. Probability or likelihood can be expressed as an infinite range of values between 0 and 1, with 0 being absolute not going to happen and 1 being absolute certainty to happen. In practice, 0 and 1 are not events that happen when looking at probability or likelihood. The word "probable" is related to "probability" and is defined as "likely to be the case or to happen." The problem with "likely to be the case or to happen" is that it is subjective. If an event has a likelihood of 0.500000001 then that means there is likelihood that the event will not occur of 0.499999999. Many would not define that as "Probable". In fact, some argue that for something to be "probable" it has to be significantly more likely than a flip of a coin (0.5 probability). To me, I feel comfortable saying that it is possible that Arcia could become an average or above hitter, but it is not probable.