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SconnieKid

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Everything posted by SconnieKid

  1. SconnieKid
    Yeah but. I mean the profit sharing checks the 09 Marlins, 10 Pirates, 11 Royals get are as big as their payroll.
  2. SconnieKid
    It cracked me up because when Corey missed the two balls he missed (both were tougher plays) a bunch of people stepped in voicing dismay that we could have had Cruz instead. It was beyond terrible. He was lined up insanely deep and could easily have gotten to the ball. OR, he could have just played it off the wall. There is NO WAY Berkman scores from first if he does that. Instead he made that pathetic attempt that ultimately cost Texas the WS.
  3. SconnieKid
    Hart is NOT going to first. I saw a twitter feed from Melvin. Its not happening. So we are back to needing a 3b, ss, 1b. we aren't getting Reyes. We would just resign Prince if we were going to drop that much coin. The SS FA situation is poor. Barmes is about the only realistic option out there. I love Hairston in Counsell's role. But if you think you are going to put Gamel and Green at the corners and improve your situation... Its just not going to happen.
  4. SconnieKid
    I guess I dont see a ton of guys who overachieved on this team. The only really way of saying they overachieved is that they didnt sustain big pitching injuries - although I would argue Greinke's injury cost him a good 1/4 of a season since he didnt get spring training really. Where did we overachieve? LF - Braun is just that good. Maybe he could regress a bit CF - I could see this although having to play Morgan against lefties because Gomez got hurt, hurt us a lot RF - Maybe a little but not much 3B- Definitely not. This was a huge under-achieving spot SS - Nope 2B - Not with Weeks injury 1B - Nope C - Nope SP - Wolf yes, maybe Narveson but no one else overachieved BP - Lots of injuries and guys did what they were supposed. Axford may regress a bit and we are not sure who we lose Bench - No one overachieved here. This team can stay close to maintaining 90 win potential without huge name acquisitions. 3B and SS will be huge improvements if we get average players. The "overachieved" was nerdspeak for given how well everyone played they should have won ~90-92 games. There are several models for "how many wins the team should have given their offensive and pitching output". All of them had us winning significantly fewer games. There were only a few teams that outperformed their play by that many wins.
  5. SconnieKid
    Well we are anxious fans. I want next year to resemble this year only with a nicer ending. I expect the Cards to keep Pujols and frankly it doesn't matter if they keep Furcal as he did very little for them this year (great in the field, terrible with the bat-against anyone outside of the Brewers). His WAR was less than Theriot's. The Brewers were at least co-favorites this year according to everything I saw. I am hoping to be in a similar position by the time spring training starts.
  6. SconnieKid
    I certainly agree that it's a .500 team if you take away Fielder and K-Rod. Especially Fielder. I mean, I know he has limited range, but that's a lot of balls getting through the right side, and the other infielders would get worn out trying to run all those grounders over to first base themselves. But seriously, folks . . . if you replace Fielder and Rodriguez with replacement-level guys, and then do nothing else to upgrade the team, then right, you're close to .500 -- I'm not sure you're all the way there, as a matter of true talent, but you're certainly there or worse in a bad year, especially if the Rodriguez hole causes a bullpen mismanagement cascade. Wat? K-Rod pitched 31 innings for the Brewers. He MIGHT have been good for 1 win. How could you possibly consider him a key player? Prince is going to be a painful loss. But there are a lot of 1B out there that put up reasonable numbers and aren't defensive and baserunning liabilities. Every metric I have seen has said he was good for ~5-6 wins. The funny thing is between K-Rod and Prince their WAR was a combined 6.6. The pythag and second and third all have the Brewers winning ~6 games more than they should have. So they were literally as lucky as Prince was good this year. Which really scares me. Its like having to replace Prince twice.
  7. SconnieKid
    Exactly. There isn't a ton of room with player salary. There are quite a few holes considering they won 96 games. I saw the Brewers win the division by 6 games and thought, hey losing Fielder and his 5.5WAR isn't the end of the world. But when you see that the Cards a different team next year (with Wainwright back, and a full season of bullpen that cost them ~11 games more than ours did) they are already behind the 8-ball. The idea that we have the answers already doesn't ring true to me. Especially when we don't have a ton of wiggle room.
  8. SconnieKid
    This is what I have been saying too. They not only have to make up the 5-6 wins Prince gave them but also the 5 wins they "overachieved". Plugging in a few rookies isn't going to get that done. I think next year is the Brewers best shot at the postseason in the foreseeable future. They don't need to sign Prince or Reyes, but they do need to bring in some big pieces.
  9. SconnieKid
    I support this thread. I am still hurting but I want some playoff gear.
  10. SconnieKid
    Thats a lot to put on pythag. All that really does is take run differential and spit out a win EV. Which is pretty dumb. It gives runs in 16 run games the same weight as runs in 0-0 games. There are better models out there for EV Wins.
  11. SconnieKid
    Managers in baseball have very little influence in win totals. They can't add more than a few wins over the course of a season. They can, however, have a negative impact.
  12. SconnieKid
    You might want to look into that remedial math class... I think the runs/win can differ year to year. I think Fangraphs had it at ~9.4 this year. So that is really 17.5 wins, or about 90% of the difference in those teams.
  13. SconnieKid
    Last year his OPS was .947 against L. ~150 AB last year and ~125 AB this year.
  14. SconnieKid
    I was thinking a Green/McGehee platoon at 3rd would make sense. Then I looked at Casey's splits against lefties. What right handed 3B hits .169/.228/.413 against lefties?? Wow Casey.
  15. SconnieKid
    I have read it several times. Sorry if I blamed you for someone else's lousy argument. I'm sure you understand how I could think this way. My first inclination was to blame Braun for it too but it clearly hit Kotsay's chest/stomach and went a completely direction.
  16. SconnieKid
    This has been your complaint for a week and I think you are just dead wrong on it. Kotsay dove head first and his body landed on the ball and redirected it. Braun would have been fine if pokey Kotsay wouldn't have gotten there; instead pokey Kotsay got there late enough to redirect the ball past Braun too.
  17. SconnieKid
    Could you have more reliable figures with a larger sample? Sure. But if someone is at or below replacement for that period its going to stick. You just won't be able to convince me that he is going to be a successful everyday player. We are talking about how to replace Prince and we are talking about 1B that is right at replacement. Thats just not going to get it done. I would just like you to know that for his first 100 PA's, Prince Fielder OPS'd lower than Gamel did. 194 PA's is a ridiculously small sample size. Gamel is getting to be the oldest prospect ever. Prince was what 21? and improving. And you are still talking about a sample size half as big. I'm not saying its not possible. But by the time you are 26+ and hitting .684 OPS for your career... Its not likely to be a stellar career. Feel free to add in he can't play 3rd and you are putting another 5'11"/6'0" defensive liability at 1st. And I LOL at people saying we should trade him. He has very limited trade value.
  18. SconnieKid
    Pena has hit ~.210 over the last two years and made 10M this year. Reyes is a pipe dream. He is going to get a pile of money almost the size of Prince's. I just don't like the FA class. I would be all for replacing 3B, SS, and RF/1B with Prince's money if there were some players that out there worthy of it. I just don't see them. Earn your money Melvin.
  19. SconnieKid
    Everything here. 194 PA of sporadic playing time over 3 years is definitely small sample. And I think Gamel would be an upgrade defensively at 1st. Could you have more reliable figures with a larger sample? Sure. But if someone is at or below replacement for that period its going to stick. You just won't be able to convince me that he is going to be a successful everyday player. We are talking about how to replace Prince and we are talking about 1B that is right at replacement. Thats just not going to get it done.
  20. SconnieKid
    Those PAs are over a period of 3 years and are basically useless since the sample size is so small. And he actually had a .760 OPS as a 23 year old (not too shabby), which is where the majority of his playing time came. A lot of people believe that Gamel will be just fine once he gets some consistent playing time.194 is NOT a small sample size. I am actually a Gamel supporter but I think both he and Green are more lefty platoon players than everyday starters. And both are pretty bad defensively. Green will be fine in time; Gamel has been pretty poor. I just don't think you should be talking about replacing Prince with these guys. Besides, 2.0 WAR is actually pretty good. That would be below Braun, Prince, Hart, and Weeks but above everyone else including Lucroy. Ryan Howard, Martin Prado, Soriano were all ~1.6 or lower.
  21. SconnieKid
    It is a HUGE leap to say Green or Gamel would be a) decent defenders- when they weren't in the minors, which will negatively impact WAR and b) be that good offensively. I mean they haven't shown they can rake in the bigs. At all. Gamel has 194 PAs and is a 0.0 WAR player so far. His carrer WPA is -.55. Which would put him well below your generous projections; below even Yuni. The other problem is that Pythag has us at a 90 win team. So we have to get Prince's 5.5 wins back but we also need to get the 6 wins we "lucked" into. Its more to ask than a lot of people around here seem to think.
  22. SconnieKid
    Combined OPS of ~.900 is pretty close to season avgs. In fact, the entire offense had OPS' around or significantly better than their season avg. They were just bad in the important situations. For instance, Braun was GREAT with 2 outs and no one on but with RISP he was pretty bad.
  23. SconnieKid
    Reyes has had one great year. He is going to be paid silly amounts of money. And he is even injury prone. No, I don't like that idea. The Brewers had a Pythag of 90 wins and are losing ~5-6WAR with Prince. That makes the Brewers a 85 win team without tinkering. And that was with a really healthy rotation. I think they are going to need to spend some of that Prince money. The dropoff the following year is going to be more precipitous. I think they need to make a splash this year. The notion that all these rookies are going to pop in the lineup and succeed when they have all struggled to this point is problematic. Getting a RF/1B that can hit shouldn't be too hard.
  24. SconnieKid
    Next year's team is the last shot. After next year they lose the entire pitching staff. I am hopeful that Melvin can find a productive way to spend the $25M they would have given Prince. Outside of Rickie they have to remake their entire infield.
  25. SconnieKid
    Narveson game up more runs than Marcum. You think his pitching one inning in game 5 is to blame? Also - that's one option - you said there were plenty of them.... Yesterday was the 3rd game Narveson pitched in 5 days. For someone who was a starting pitcher a short while ago thats idiotic. It certainly isn't indicative of the stuff he was going to have had you prepared him for a 4-5 inning start after game 2. You will find a few of my posts cussing out RR for doing this when it happened. I thought given the difficulties the Cards had with Wolf another wily lefty in game 5 would have worked well; it also would have given Greinke and Yo back at home for 6 and 7. Instead, RR pitched Narv in some dumb spots and didn't have a backup plan for Marcum. At the end of the day I don't think it was all on RR. They just played better than we did. But he made some terrible decisions that a lot of us attacked immediately that ended up being bad choices.
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