SconnieKid

I have no understanding of why you would pitch Yo in gm 6 if they are down 3-2. You are actually lessening his opportunity to win a game PLUS then you have to face Carpenter in a game 7 with ... who exactly? The goal is to win the series. You have to find a way to win 6 AND 7. Increasing your odds of winning gm 6 but crushing your odds of winning 7 is a terrible decision. Thank goodness we won;t have to worry about it.

I was actually surprised to see that GoGo's baserunning was actually -.7 Which means he was essentially a net negative 1 run on the basepaths this year. So his CS and a few dumb baserunning choices over the year overcame his tremendous speed.

You aren't going to find what you want, since defensive metrics aren't nearly precise enough to determine something like win probability. This is a case where statistics aren't really of much use since it is a one game scenario with a very interesting pitching matchup of YoGa vs. Carpenter. With FieldFx data it might be easier to predict the odds on how many outs per game a Gomez or Morgan in CF would save vs. Kotsay, but I wouldn't trust anything that is out there right now. Common sense tells me that Gallardo is a fly ball pitcher, so put your best defenders in the OF, at least when your worst OF (Kotsay) is far, far, far inferior to your alternatives. The problem isn't that there isn't data out there for Gomez. The problem is that there isn't any data at all for Kotsay being a CF. Because he isn't one. Guys like Bourn are -6 to -7 runs per 150 games. What does that leave Kotsay? Gomez was +27 runs per 150 games. My guess is that there is a far bigger difference between Bourn and Kotsay than between Gomez and Bourn. So that would give him a ~-33. I think the runs/War was like 9.6 this year. So we are literally talking needing the DIFFERENCE between the two of being a Braun/Fielder calibur hitter. These are inexact figures as it includes fielding metrics and some rough estimations but you get the idea.

I created a thread about it because it was such a peculiar situation. In the end I think the path he took was the one of least resistance which was my biggest problem. I just hate that there weren't guys in the dugout waiting to pinch hit in that situation. It came up on him and he didn't know how to react so he didn't. It doesn't fill you with confidence when difficult decisions are out there to be made.

I don't really want this to turn into a RR blast thread but I would love to hear some thoughtful analysis of some of the situations that came up last night and may come up again in the future. Up 1 with runners on second and third TLR brings in LOOGY specialist Arthur Rhodes to face a string of 4 straight lefties (Kottaras, Wolf, Morgan, Kotsay). All of these guys are platoon players who have had almost no success hitting lefties. The Brewers elected to let the chips fall where they may and let the string play out. In my estimation they got about the best possible result by getting one run home. It all happened pretty quickly. In retrospect I really think bringing in Hart/McGehee/whoever to hit for George (which would necessitate bringing in another PH for Wolf the next AB) would have been preferable. Saito was warmed in the pen anyways and RR had Wolf on a short rope after than anyway so why not play for an extra run or two? That would have wasted Rhodes and TLR probably would have brought in a hard throwing R. On the other hand, if Hart and McGehee strike out/ground out you have taken your pitcher out and are only up 1 having given your opponent all the momentum. I at least would have PH for Morgan as he was lost against Rhodes and giving up an AB with runners on 2nd and 3rd when you are set to make defensive adjustments anyways seemed the wrong choice. Also, after Kottaras got the last out and they pulled him and Wolf I was TICKED that Lucroy started off the next inning. Why would you pull a double switch there? You have the same team on the field and you either have Lucroy up or any PH for Wolf. Would you rather have Luc start off an inning or Hart/Green/McGehee, hell even Yo?

This made all the sense in the world and I was advocating for it. But that was only if you were willing to give Marcum's start to Narveson. Narveson could have started 5 or 6 and it made sense to have Greinke at home. But since Narveson pitched in game 3 that clearly isn't going to happen. So there really is no decision to make here.

Holliday is a fine LF. Berkman is a dismal RF. It should be noted that not having Hart in the lineup is trumped by Berkman, arguably the NL MVP 100 games into the season, riding pine.

I have a feeling some of you would hit the 21...

Thats heartbreaking. It seemed like there are seats at various spots and if we got there early enough we would be ok. But if they don;t let you sit there or you need to order expansive amounts fo expensive grub it would be silly. NYCE club booked? I think it would be cheaper to sit up there for the game and have a feast.

Video games and fried chicken? AMATEURS! http://hardballtalk.nbcsp...0s-mets-had-a-porn-room/

It's no use. It's not getting through. The argument just keeps getting reverted back to: - There's no guarantee that the team would have won the game with a competent defensive CF - Other guys could have played better so it doesn't matter Both of these counterpoints are clearly continuing to miss the larger issue that in baseball, with the outcomes often decided by very narrow margins, it is vital to be as good as possible in every aspect. You can't make decisions that put your team at a disadvantage (even a little) with the margin for error being as small as it is during the playoffs. This is exactly right. If Kotsay HAD made the catch in the first and hit the home run it still would have been the wrong decision. If you are playing Blackjack and you hit a hard 18 and get a 3 it doesn't mean you did the right thing.

Jay if hitting 8th for the RedBirds? I mean he only has 5 runs in 15 PAs...

Braun/Fielder OBP of .375 from last night is not terrible; its pretty close to season avgs... I would have preferred JHJ at the 5 spot. Rickie hasn't gotten it done since his injury and while I love him he needs to be in a spot he can't be so problematic.

Just give me GoGo in that enormous CF and move JHJ to 5th. I don't care about the rest. Anyone else think Kottaras could catch Marcum in 6? I watched a bit on Baseball Tonight where they were talking about the awful communication between Luc and Marcum before the Goldschmidt HR and again in game 2 of the NLCS.

Anyone got pointers on where to go to get decent spots with SRO?

Braun had 4 PAs and was on twice right? Thats a TERRIBLE night? Crikey you guys are spoiled. I really believe that with Gomez in CF they would have won last night. I think Albert's double hung in the air for ages and would have been caught. I am fairly confident I could have caught Jay's pop up. And people need to stop giving him credit for getting on base in the 1st after his blunder at 2nd. Everyone knew that ball was going to be caught except him. Maybe he thought pop outs to CF were really tough for other major leaguers too. Almost every GM and Mgr in the bigs has undergone a substantial shift in thought around defense. No longer do people put terrible defenders in key spots (CF, SS, etc). Except RR.

The Red Sox have also traded a ton of their farm system away to get veteran players over the years. So throw in Hanley Ramirez, etc on the Sox side of the equation. Until this year the Brewers haven't done that as trading cost controlled players isn't generally something a small market team does. Meanwhile, the Sox make a trade for an elite player with considerable frequency.

You have to give a GM some time to develop their talent. He drafted Ellsbury, Pedroia, Bucholz, etc. He traded a can of beans for AGon. They developed Youk. Almost ALL FA signings are bad deals for the teams. If you look at metrics for WP for free agents they are out of this world expensive. But they were able to afford such talent because they DID have so much home grown talent. Epstein took a solid farm system and turned it into a GREAT one. He also turned Fenway from an old festering building into the destination stadium in baseball. Its going to take time but Chicago just got a lot more dangerous IMO.

Meh. Blaming Wakefield because he wanted to come back and AGon because he complained about Sunday night getaway days is just poor reporting. Clearly there was no accountability for the team but that is all to common in pro sports. Give a guy a 100M guaranteed contract and see what he does. Unfortunately, a lot of guys do the same thing you and I would do; quit their day jobs.

Because his last start could very well have been something like 6 IP, 2 ER. Morgan and Hart both had balls pop out of their gloves and if Gomez was in CF, probably would've caught Pujols' ball. Jay reached on a hit and run with a groundball where the 3B would have been. Marcum messed up a bunt that he probably turns into an out most of the time. I've said it before and I'll keep saying it, you can't judge a pitcher solely on what the numbers turn out to be. With a few "luck" factors going the Brewers way that game, I think Marcum turns in a quality start. I think the same thing applies to his AZ start because there were really only 2 hard hit balls against him there. He's still one of our 3 best pitchers and he went 8 IP 1 ER on 9/20. Yes that start was sandwiched by a few bad ones (according to the numbers) but I still think he's the best option compared to non-streched-out Estrada/Narveson. That being said, I think Roenicke should have a quick hook with him if he gets into trouble in his next start.WAT? He went 4 innings. GOT CRUSHED. His change-up, his only go-to pitch is worthless as it is faster and flatter than it has been all season. In the playoffs he has had 18 reach base in 8 2/3. You could put a few more outfielders on the field and it wouldn't matter. That you could suggest that that debacle of a start could have been a quality start with a little help makes you blind to what is happening. He has missed badly on a huge number of 0-2 and 1-2 pitches. He doesn't have majestic stuff so when he misses in the zone it gets hit hard. I would forgive two bad starts but he has had one decent start in 6+ weeks now and that was against a terrible team. He is well over his career high in innings pitched and its clear his arm is dragging.

Marcum's last three starts are literally his worst three starts of the year. In all three he has given up at least 5 ER and hasn't made it through the 5th. I have no understanding how anyone could suggest the trajectory he is on has just been a little bumpy of late. He has hit the ground and is in a flaming heap. Narveson might not be great but he is certainly game and very fresh. And he has had some great outings in big spots this year. Its a no-brainer to me.

How about if Carp starts the game for the Cards and the Brewers score 4 runs and take 30 min in the top of the first. Then we get a rain delay until tomorrow before Yo ever throws a pitch. Its not that much to ask is it?

I'll take 1. It only reduces winning the WS from 24% to 16% and it lets me stay on this magic ride for another week. And I wouldn't have to worry about the hated Cards winning the series.

Planning on going to the game Sunday but my budget is highly limited. If I get there really early with SRO tix is there a decent spot to try to grab bar seats or anything? My GF loves the Brewers but can't stand for 4+ hours. If not I'll end up spending $60+ on Eucker seats which isn't very ideal either... TIA

All the people that want Yo and Grenike to go on short rest aren't recognizing what terrible track record that means. Its almost always only done with outstanding personnel and it has not only turned elite pitching into 9-14 pitching but it also means you aren't going to have an elite pitcher the next day. No short rest PLEASE. Especially for Yo and Greinke. Yo Wolf Narveson Greinke Yo If you are going to have Narv pitch why not bring Greinke back to Milw for his last start of the series? He has been so much better at home. I would feel so much better about having Yo and Greinke close out the series at home than needing Marcum to win the matchup he was so hopelessly trounced in last night.