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Gopher74

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Everything posted by Gopher74

  1. Gopher74
    The rangers actually have several guys who I'd love to get from their Bullpen. CJ Wilson, Benoit, Otsuka.....those three would all serve a very valuable role in our pen. All could be used as SU men(though Wilson would be better served as a 7th inning man). He's just nasty vs left handers, and not THAT great vs righties. I mean, he's got good stuff, and can pitch to both, but he's more of a loogy than a SU man IMO.
  2. Gopher74
    Yea, I agree that he's more likely to put up those numbers than Hall is, I'm just saying paying a HUGE sum of money for a guy who has hit in the .270/.330 25 range most of his career when you should expect Hall to do that is a bad idea. Now if it were 10 million per for Hunter, that'd be worth it, but like you said, he's already turned down 3/45...so.....
  3. Gopher74
    Hall got better as the year went on - I think he's a viable, if unspectacular, option out there. Corey Hart plays a good CF also. This team has higher priorities than CF defense right now, IMO. Hunter would pretty much just be brought it for that. Two sentences in what took me three paragraphs..LOL..... I totally agree though.
  4. Gopher74
    I think if say for instance Mike Cameron had an OBP of .380 on average, I could him being our primary target, but IMO, I think Melvin is going to go after Bobby Abreu. I just think he fits perfectly into what Melvin wants to do. Speed at the top of the order, great, great OBP's, decent power, and he can knock in runs. Now if they don't get him, I could definitely see us going after Cameron and sacrificing the OBP a little to upgrade the defense, speed and power. But I don't know if I agree that CF should be a position we focus on because of Bill Hall. I mean assuming he's going to keep playing for us, and we're not looking to replace his stick(Which I think most agree will come around) then I think he's fine in CF. He improved exponentially out there last year, and I think he'll continue to make those strides this year, and since the Brewers seem intent on sticking with Braun at 3rd base, I think they'll leave him out there. Again, if we pass on Abreu, I'd be thrilled to plug Cameron into CF, but I think the defensive aspect of it should be 3rd or 4th among priorities behind getting on-base, speed, and situational offense....all things Abreu is fantastic at.
  5. Gopher74
    Anyway, I absolutely think that Jeff Suppan could be traded next year. In fact, I think it's more likely than not. I just compare this to when the Marlins went after Delgado. He(Suppan) gets paid 15 million the first two years, and he gets 25 million the following two years. He has a no trade clause for those first two years. Then? Only a partial no-trade. Oh, and by the way, the Brewers ace just so happens to be a free agent that year. Shocking, huh? I could honestly envision him not even being one of our top 5 starters by then. I mean, you have to use your imaginationhttp://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/wink.gif, but I could see Sheets obviously, Gallardo, Villy, and Parra all being better, and if Cappy bounces back to his form from the prior two years, he's at least as good. Now chances are someone's going to fall apart, get hurt, whatever. But it becomes Suppan vs Sheets. I'd rather keep Sheets as long as his arm is healthy. Maybe I'm just thick, but I've still got confidence that he's going to bounce back.
  6. Gopher74
    Simply pointing out that of the pitchers in there, there's really not a lot of consistency with FIP's to ERA's. I just don't think that there's that much to it. Suppan was nearly flawless last year in the second half, and his three year average was 3.95, so I just don't buy that he was better last year. I just think it's too flawed. IMO, while he had more K's this year, he also gave up a LOT more hits, a higher Whip, his K/BB ratio was better three of the last four years... So yea, I just don't believe that this was Jeff Suppan at his best or even norm. I'm under no illusions that he's a great pitcher, but I do think he's a number 3, and a 4.00-ish type guy.
  7. Gopher74
    Well, the thing is, IMO, you're not going to really get much of an upgrade offensively with Hunter over Billy Hall. Now of course last year Hunter had a career year, and Hall had an awful year, but I think it's pretty safe to say that Hall is going to be a .270-.275/.330 or so type player who can hit 20-25 HR's. That's pretty much what Tori Hunter is going to give you, and what he has given you for the last several years. Now as far as Hunters defense, I don't agree thats' slipped at all. I think he's the best defensive CF'er of all time(I admit, an opinion that's been influenced by Gammons and Callis). But I don't think that's enough to sign him for 15+ million(and given Jones slip, I think he's actually going to get a Carlos Lee-esque deal). What I WOULD do is go after Bobby Abreu. He gives you exactly what you need. He's a very good OBP type guy, he's got good speed, and decent power, though he's obviously lost quite a bit of that power, which is what may make him a 10-11 million dollar a year player rather than a 15 million dollar a year player again.
  8. Gopher74
    You know, FIP might be a quality stat for guys who are coming up through the minors and have only pitched for a year, but what difference does it make for a guy who's been in the big leagues for several years? Wouldn't ERA, Whip, QS's all be more important stats? I mean, Jeff Fassero had a 3.55 FIP two years ago. Should we bring him back out of retirement? Nope, FIP or xFIP is better. ERA and WHIP is dependent on defense. As is QS. If you say so...... It's not a very good stat for GB pitchers. Brandon Webbs for example is generally going to be higher because he's a GB pitcher. This stat does very little for GB pitchers. I think it's kinda funny how instead of just talking about how many guys you allow on base, and how many runs you give up, we have to come up with all these intricate stats to tell us that a guy isn't really as good or as bad as he's been for several years.
  9. Gopher74
    He threw 2 IP, 4 IP, 5 IP and 5 IP. So while two were out of the pen, he was still very good for two starts, one was a long relief appearance, and the other was just two innings.
  10. Gopher74
    It was bad for the first month and a half of the second half. It was fantastic, especially in Sept. Capuano-2.81 ERA Villanueva-2.10 Gallardo-.64 going into his last start, 1.36 overall. Suppan-3.86, 3.90 in August Our starting pitching struggled for a couple stretches this year, no question, but it was exceptional the last 6-8 weeks of the second half. It was the the BP that was the problem, and the Brewers absolutely have 8 guys who could start for almost every single team. Vilanueva, Parra and Gallardo are three good, good young arms. Sheets is obviously...well....Sheets. He's injured, but I doubt you'd classify him as less than a "solid" starter. Vargas' ERA's were 3.68, 4.04, 4.24, 4.32, 9.00, 4.66. He was killed by his 7 ER .2 IP start vs the Giants when he was dealing with a bad back. Suppan's ERA the last 3 years was 3.95, and jumped up this year. Very "solid". And Cappy led the league the last two years in QS's, had a VERY good start to the season, a very good finish, and contrary to popular belief was also pretty solid in the second half last year. Two months with ERA's in the low 2's, the last 4 months. And his ERA was 3.86 two starts before the end of last season. To suggest we DON'T have 8 quality starting pitchers is just wrong. Not 8 great ones, not saying you don't try to upgrade, but we DO have an abundance of the biggest need in the game.
  11. Gopher74
    You know, FIP might be a quality stat for guys who are coming up through the minors and have only pitched for a year, but what difference does it make for a guy who's been in the big leagues for several years? Wouldn't ERA, Whip, QS's all be more important stats? I mean, Jeff Fassero had a 3.55 FIP two years ago. Should we bring him back out of retirement?
  12. Gopher74
    If you place any value on FIP...which to be honest, I do not. Not for a GB pitcher. I think this is an interesting article. Look at how many ground ball pitchers appear in their "higher FIP" range. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fip-and-the-long-ball/
  13. Gopher74
    And again, eliminate the errors. When you take out the errors, which kills range factor, the Brewers defense actually has good range. Prince being the lone exception. But do you really think it's any wonder why Braun's dead last? He had a historically bad defensive season in terms of fielding pct. I put only no stock into range factor as I can say with a degree of certainty that Tori Hunter is not only the best defensive CF'er today, but IMO, the greatest of all-time(well...I've gotta admit, I've only seen about 15 years of baseball...I'm going with Peter Gammons on this one), and his zone rating is little more than average. And Andrew Jones, a player who many believe is on the decline had his higher range rating in the past 4 years. It's absolutely impossible to use a defensive rating and apply it equally to everyone since there are just so many different variables. However, when you eliminate the errors, you're telling me that you think that Ryan Braun is capable of GETTING TO fewer balls than any 3rd basemen in the game? Hell, tell me with a straight face that he gets to fewer than Miquel Cabrera? You cant' do it. Again, nobody's saying this defense helped Suppan out in terms of wins, but it absolutely was not the cause of his higher ERA. He's a pitcher who's always going to have a high whip and not strike people out. He has to combat that by getting ground balls. The simple fact is that he left the ball up far more this year than seasons past leading to a higher BAA and a lower GB/FB ratio.
  14. Gopher74
    Not true at all. First of all, the Cards FP last year was .984 and ours this year was .982. Not a huge difference. Second, his GB/FB ratio was quite a bit worse this year. Third, his BAA and OBP was up this year. And finally, errors don't hurt an ERA(obviously)and the Brewers IF has a LOT of range. So while they clearly make errors, when they don't make errors, they actually help out a pitcher quite a bit(if that makes sense...it should). His average ERA from 04-06 was 3.95. Do not blame that on the Brewers defense.
  15. Gopher74
    Sprained fingers? Yea, I guess if you consider a torn tendon a "sprained finger", then sure. And if you call a very rare virus a "ear infection", then sure, that's what he had to. I'm sorry, but this post as a whole is ridiculous. Parra's injury prone because he got his thumb smashed with a fastball on a bunt attempt(yea, I know they shut him down in the minors), and Vargas is worthless? Wow....
  16. Gopher74
    They wouldn't take it? Wait what? Uh...sure they would. They'd absolutely take it. When they offer him to LaD for Kemp and Billingsley, I'm sure they'd take Braun, "some" minor leaguers and cash. The problem is, this would be a AWFUL idea. I mean, as much as I'd like to pay him 18 million a year for us, you lose too much..Braun, Sheets(money), and then another 8 million in payroll.
  17. Gopher74
    The guy who missed a couple months this year, his first in the big years is injury free? Unless you're talking about shoulder/elbow issues, in which case, so is Sheets.
  18. Gopher74
    No, it's not off at all. We're talking about at the big league level first of all, and at the big league level, we've got 8 starters. Second, we don't have a lot of upper level talent ready, however, that's very much different from not having any. When you graduate 3 very good pitchers to the big leagues, you're not likely to have a lot of upper level prospects ready. We do however have a few in the lower levels, namely Jeremy Jeffress, and while I know it's just AWFUL that a 20 year old kid would smoke a little pot, he's got big time potential. And finally, what do you mean by "never"? His one injury? Yea, he hasn't been around that long, but you're vastly overstating the case with him.
  19. Gopher74
    Yo's going to be good. Villanueva will probably be good. Suppan will probably be servicable. Parra could conceivably be good, but injuries are a serious concern. Bush, Vargas, and Capuano have been bounced in and out of the rotation this year. To me, that doesn't scream "depth", at least not where I wouldn't be looking for an upgrade. I think it's a pretty safe assumption that Suppan is going to bounce back quite a bit this year. His last three years he had a average ERA of 3.95. This year, as a result of fatigue from pitching in the WS, or just getting acclimated to the new surroundings, his ERA jumped to 4.62. I think it's pretty safe to assume he'll come back towards his norm next year. Capuano led the league the last two years in QS's, won 18 two years ago and was an AS last year. Again, should rebound next year. Villanueva had an ERA of 2.10 this year, 3.63 last year as a starter, Yo's a ace in the making as someone else said. Had an ERA in the mid 2's save for one blowup in Coors. Beyond that you've got Bush, Vargas, and Parra. I don't think starting pitching is a point of emphasis. I think that distinction should be reserved for the bullpen.
  20. Gopher74
    First of all, 150 and 140 innings isn't 1/3 of the time. It's about 2/3rds of the time. Very big difference. Second, we traded a power hitting first basemen on a 100 loss team. You DON'T see how that's different from trading a Ace on a team with playoff aspirations? Third, how exactly are we in a rebuilding process if we were to struggle to .500 next year? Given the depth of starting pitching, namely Villy and Gallardo, I guess I don't see us going .500 even if Sheets only starts 15 games. And fourth, how has Oakland done since they made those trades?
  21. Gopher74
    The Yanks dismissed the mere suggestion that they'd be willing to trade Hughes for Carlos Lee last year. They've insisted they're not going to trade youth anymore for short term fixes, and BOTH those players are guys with HUGE talent. I mean, we're not getting ONE for Sheets, much less two. There's just no question about it. And as for Sheets taking 9 million a year, that's just incredibly unrealistic. You MAY get him to sign for 12 million a year, but that's even a long shot. If he gives us a home town discount, you're looking at 5/65. And clearly you're not overvaluing Sheets given that low ball offer. I think you're undervaluing Job and Hughes. Lets put it this way. Would you trade Gallardo for Sheets? Now would you trade TWO guys of his caliber for Ben Sheets? Would you trade 750,000K in salaries of two of your core players for 11 million for an injury prone player? Now I love Sheets, have defended him to the death, but if we could get one of those, I'd be thrilled. If we could get both, Brian Cashmen would likely be fired.
  22. Gopher74
    Guys, what has Inman done in AA so far? There is no more telling jump than from High A to AA ball, and Inman's struggled mightily with an ERA OVER 8.00. Thatcher's nice, don't get me wrong, but he's a left handed specialist, and Garrison's not an MLB caliber ball player. We just solidified out pen big time. We've not got the best pen in the game. We took a big arm from the top Dogs, and added him to our arm. Beautiful.
  23. Gopher74
    Our closer? I don't see "closer" stuff out of Balfour at all. I think he's got the chance to be a very good 7th inning guy, but he's not and will not be our closer EVER. I'd rather T-bow and Wise be our 8th/9th inning guys, or go after a Scott Linebrink.
  24. Gopher74
    Yea, the thing is, we didn't sign him to be a number 4 or 5, we signed him to be a number 3 and to help save the BP. We need him to do that in the second half.
  25. Gopher74
    LOL...so you're saying that you wouldn't trade Vargas, a number five starter, and a guy who's not as good as Gallardo, Villanueva or Parra for the BEST catching prospect in the game? Seriously?
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