jackailius

It is probably too early to speculate what they will be doing moving forward but with the blow to their franchise after yesterdays announcement and the subsequent firings, is anyone else looking at the organization and thinking that maybe they are looking to shed contracts? I had heard that the hope was to get under the luxury tax number. Could they be looking to move Greinke or Verlander to net some prospects? Each has 2 years left on their contract, each are getting up there in age but each are also top of the line starters. I know speculation is that we are working to lower our payroll but I could also see a situation where MA becomes willing to go after one of them and stretch for the frontliner if it is a possibility. So a few things: Do you think the Astros look to tear it down? If you are DS, do you try to convince MA to stretch the budget to try to go after one of them? What do you think it would take to get Greinke or Verlander?

I really would have preferred to get someone like Walker as a bench player/timeshare option. I think at least the floor on Walker would have been better than Gyorko and likely would be about the same price. I still would like to see a 3b move for more certainty.

welp, I throw an idea for a transaction out here and of course the same day that player (Harris) is off the board. He was a big part of my hope in mitigating the loss of Hader in my original plan. That said, I still believe dealing Hader now is prudent as long as you can get Hudson and at least one of McHugh, Walker, Sanchez or Wood (honestly 2 of those would be better now). I also agree uptop with those saying that 3b isn't a minor need but I think looking at it a bit differently than a traditional 3TO player works. One thing that we have had troubles with in the past is when we have those big boppers go cold for periods of time. I would rather give up a few long balls for more consistent hitting. That is just me though. It would be great to get Donaldson and watch him just smash the ball but that really eats up a lot of payroll for more years than I am comfortable with given his age. I keep going back and forth on Seager too because of his cost. Turner is an interesting idea. I just wonder what the Dodgers would want for him. When Donaldson does sign I could see Turner being a bit of a hot commodity for those teams that lost out. The nationals, braves and twins are all said to be in on Donaldson so there will be a pretty good market for Turner once that chip falls I would imagine and all have the prospects to make it happen if they choose.

There are still some holes to fill and things to do. As I am looking at this team I see one where we are working to raise the bottom and having more consistent hitting. From the pitching side, it looks like shorter games and what I would guess to be keeping hitters uncomfortable with mixing up the type of pitchers coming at them during the game. Here is what I think would be ideal for the offseason: Needs: 3b, relief, what to do with Hader Here is what I would do if I could: Trade with Mets: We get: Jed Lowrie Dom Smith Mets get: Pick of T. Williams, Black, Wahl, Faria, Why this works for the Mets: While Cespedes reworking of the contract has created some breathing room, I think they still want to get some more space. They also have nowhere to play Smith in the near future. Why this works for the Brewers Lowrie is a switch hitter who can man the hot corner. Listen, I know last year was lost and he has had limiting years due to injuries but he certainly does have some strong skills if he is healthy including a 2018 season that saw 23 home runs and an OBP of 353. He will need days off and is injury prone but we have a lot of versatile players if need be. It is also a one year contract so we can cross our fingers and if it doesn’t work out, we can look it as buying our 1st baseman of the future. For this year with Smoak, we can have Dom be a rotational guy between late game 1st basemen, 1st base during interleague play with Smoak being a DH and a left-handed left fielder against tougher righties. Look for Smith to be your full time 1st baseman of starting 2021. Fallback plan at 3rd: Todd Frazier Not the glitzy name of Donaldson but on a one or two year contract for $10Mish per, he is a consistent if not spectacular hitter who is a great fielder. The lets get crazy and really screw up these plans fallback to the fallback at 3rd: We Get: Seager Sheffield Seattle gets: Pick of T. Williams, Black, Wahl, Faria, This trade completely messes up a lot of the rest of the plans- it will make getting the relievers I have targeted less likely because we will be feeling the pinch from Seager’s contract, not just this year but in the future too. That said, he is a good player, great glove and a bat that will play better at Miller Park than I think most are giving him credit for. This also inserts Sheffield into the mix for the pitching staff right away. Relief Pitching With the starting staff looking like a twice through the lineup at most type a crew, I think we will need some folks to carry some innings in the bullpen. Here is what I would like: Daniel Hudson 3yrs $18m. This is an added year to what MLBTr predicted but the same PPY. This may still be low but who knows with the way this year’s free agency has gone. I’m going to buy an extra year at the lower price rather than raise the hurt on the budget. McHugh, Walker or Wood: 2yrs $12m. Depending on which one we get, will depend on the real price tag but this is what I have allocated for the spot. It shouldn’t be more than $6m a year for any of the three I don’t think. Will Harris: 2 yr $16M. It sounds like he is weighing in on offers in the 6 to 7m per year range. I think going that extra year is worth it for him. He has quietly been one of the better relievers. He is older but on a 2 year deal I think it is worth it. Final move: Trade Josh Hader- Listen, I love him too but it is tough to envision a situation where his value is higher than right now and starting next year he will be getting expensive. I think it would be best to work on getting a haul from a team that can give us a package that should help us for years to come. Here are a few ideas that make sense to me: White Sox Madrigal (2b) (40) Dunning RHP or Stiever RHP Sheets 1b Burger 3b Mendick INF Dodgers If Lux and May are a no go Ruiz C (33) or Gray RHP (75) Gonslin RHP Hoese 3b White RHP Phillies Bohm 3b/1b (34) Medina RHP Garcia SS/2b Romero LHP Padres Patino RHP (30) Campusano C (86)/ Weathers LHP Potts 3b Twins Kirilloff OF (15) Graterol RHP (53) or Balazovic RHP (76) One of Thorpe LHP or Enlow RHP or Canterino RHP Blue Jays Groshans ss/3b (67) Manoah RHP Richardson RHP Kay LHP Moreno C This gives us the following look if all goes how I hope: C Narvaez L, Pina R 1B Smoak S, Braun R, Smith L 2B Huira R, Sogard L, Urias R SS Urias R, Sogard L, Lowrie S 3B Lowrie S, Sogard L, Urias R LF Garcia R, Braun R, Smith L, Yelich L, Gamel L CF Cain R, Gamel L, Garcia R, Yelich L RF Yelich L, Garcia R, Gamel L Pitching Staff: Starters: Woodruff R Anderson L Houser R Lauer L Lindblom R Relief: Hudson R, Harris R, McHugh R/Walker R/Wood L, Suter L, Claudio L, 3 Peralta R, Burnes R, Feyereisen R, D. Williams R, Rasmussen R, Brown R, someone who is a NRI or someone left from the out of options relievers not traded or anyone who is ready that was part of the Hader trade (Knebel R will also take his place here when he is ready- just not confident it will be at the start of the season). By my calculations this puts us just under $120M for the year although just over with paying Arcia to be in AAA as a depth piece. What do you think? Personally, when I look at that lineup I understand that we don’t have the thump at 1st, 3rd and C but I really like the OBP we carry with this team and I think the overall team looks much better with a much higher floor on the offensive side. Based on projections for 2020 from BRef the average for the team constructed above carries an average of 16 homers per player, an average OBP of 340 with the low of 314 belonging to Pina and an average OPS of 737. I also think that the starting staff is about what it was last year. Nothing overly exciting but if used correctly, they keep you competitive. I think that while we don’t have the gusto of the three headed monster we were going into last year thinking we had (Hader, Jeffress, Knebel), we do have a balanced staff that won’t lose you too many games either. I also look to some of those prospects to hold down high leverage spots (looking at you Williams, Burnes, Peralta). I like to look at things as a big picture- so while I hate losing Hader, it makes sense when looking at the landscape of other moves I think as well as the future and building for sustainability. How do you think I did as my first day on the job as GM? What do you like, what would you not do? What would the balance of your offseason moves be if you were GM?

Just because this has been going so long and it has been almost 12 hours without an addition, i thought i would throw out who are competing that I think will be calling Stearns about deals. I put who I think might make sense to ask for and am hoping to continue the debate about what we think is an appropriate return for 4 years of Hader. Personally, i like prospects that are closer to MLB ready when possible and for pitchers I look for above average control as a starting point. I also look to get several prospects because this may be a defining moment for Stearns trading career and prospects flame out more than they follow through with the hype IMO. Also, I'm not the expert on prospects that a lot of you are so I'm going off of lists and ranking of tools that are posted. The number after some of the names is where mlb.com pipeline currently has them ranked. Thoughts? Too much? Too little? Again, just trying to keep the conversation and speculation going on this slow pre-New Years time. White Sox Madrigal (2b) (40) Dunning RHP or Stiever RHP Sheets 1b Burger 3b Mendick INF Dodgers If Lux and May are a no go Ruiz C (33) or Gray RHP (75) Gonslin RHP Hoese 3b White RHP Mets Davis 1B/OF (MLB) Gimenez SS (92) Allan RHP Vientos 3b Peterson LHP Phillies Bohm 3b/1b (34) Medina RHP Garcia SS/2b Romero LHP Padres Patino (30) Campusano (86)/ Weathers Potts Yankees I don’t trust this orgs prospect ratings but I’d need this from them) Garcia RHP (62) Gil RHP Schmidt RHP or Gomez RHP Seigler C One of Vizcaino RHP or Stephan RHP or Sikkema LHP Twins Kirilloff OF (15) Graterol RHP (53) or Balazovic RHP (76) One of Thorpe LHP or Enlow RHP or Canterino RHP Blue Jays Groshans ss/3b (67) Manoah RHP Richardson RHP Kay LHP Moreno C Angels Just don’t have what it takes as they aren’t trading Adell Diamondbacks Not really seeing anything I like Nationals Not a fit unless Kieboom is included- not likely Braves With the addition of Smith and Martin they probably feel comfortable with their pen ***Updated with positions

I know they reworked the Cespedes deal but I wouldn't doubt they are looking to still get rid of the Familia and Lowrie. I personally really like Lowrie and think he is a bounce back candidate after an injury strung 2019. Bullpen guys are up and down always so there is hope that Familia won't be dead weight. They are both real concerns but have great upsides in the past. That said to take them on I am asking for Dom Smith and JD Davis. I would look to throw Arcia, T. Taylor and some combination of Wahl/Black/T. Williams back to them. Why this makes sense for the Brewers: This gets us a 1b for the next 5 years. JD Davis looks like he could be our 3b of the future as well. As noted above I really like Lowrie and if Davis is playing well and Urias isn’t quite getting the job done at short, Lowrie could move over and cover short. In Familia we are taking a formerly good bullpen arm who was awful last year in hopes we can bring him back to serviceable. If it works he will be great to pair with Knebel and Hader at the end of the game (though I would also like to see them sign Betances as well regardless) and if it doesn’t work out, we move him to mop up multi-inning role- he would be expensive for that role but we are paying to get the 5 yrs of Davis and Lowrie. Why this makes sense for the Mets: Arcia has shown flashes of what brought him to the top of the prospect lists but has been disappointing for us. The Mets will hopefully look at that prospect rating, the potential and see the possibility for a change of scenery bump. Taylor has options but is MLB ready and can pair with Nimmo in center as well as cover the other OF spots when needed. The other need for the Mets are bullpen arms. We have a few that won’t end up making the team. Could be a win win. Most of all, this takes $30M off the books over the next 2 years to give them flexibility to fill other holes. That said, what do you think? Is it fair for each club or far off? Who would say no and why? I’m not a value expert by any means and could be way off. The Trade: Brewers get: Dominic Smith JD Davis Jed Lowrie Jeurys Familia Mets get: Orlando Arcia Tyrone Taylor Wahl/Black/T. WIlliams

Perhaps I'm off quite a bit. If we were to try to build a package for Ray, Peralta and Grienke + $20-$30M what do you think it would take? Remember Grienke has 3yrs/105, Peralta and Ray have 2 years left and are each in the $6-$7M range based on MLBtraderumors estimator.

I'm not great with valuating talent necessarily so I may be way off but could a huge trade like this make sense for both sides: Brewers get: Ray, Peralta, Grienke & $20M Diamondbacks get: Peralta, Ray, Diplan, Albers, Thames, Santana, Anderson Brewers get 2 very good pitchers and would end up with probably the best outfield in the MLB Diamondbacks while taking cost in the deal, even if figuring the full $20M going back to the crew will still drop payroll by $12M and will get a nice shot of longerterm assets with Peralta and Ray that have high upside and one that is still a work in progress in Diplan while Thames brings a replacement for this year at 1st and Santana is controlled for 2 additional seasons beyond Peralta and Anderson is basically the same length as Ray at what will be a lower cost and they get out from Grienke's contract.

Of course minutes after posting this Goldy gets traded to the Cardinals... so instead lets change that a bit. We will take out the Goldschmidt trade and make an even bigger trade with the DBacks and also not invest in Miley and take Ray instead. So here is what I propose: Trade Freddy Peralta, Chase Andreson, Corey Ray, Eric Thames, Mat Albers. Domingo Santana, Marcos Diplan, and Tre Supak to Arizona for David Peralta, Robbie Ray, Zach Grienke and $40M- $20m coming in the first year with $10M in 2020 & 2021 each. If I calculate everything this puts us pretty much right at 125M. We would then move Braun to primarily 1b duties and have a lineup that looks like this: CF Cain RF Yelich 2B Gonzalez LF Peralta 3B Shaw 1B Braun C Pina P SS Arcia Rotation would be: Grienke Ray Chacin Burnes Davies

Huge bummer. I just submitted my 2018-2019 offseason plan in the transaction section and one of my big ones was trading for Goldschmidt. I apparently was way off as I included Corey Ray, Eric Thames, Domingo Santana, Marcos Diplan, and Tre Supak. Probably why I am not going to get anywhere close to a GM job. I was drooling over having him bat cleanup for the crew though.

I think it will be tough to fit Grienke into our budget to be honest. I would love to have him but if I am the Diamondbacks and I am trading Goldschmidt who is the best 1b and a perennial MVP candidate and Grienke paid down to a point where he is paid like a #4 starter I am going to be asking for probably your best 2 prospects and likely would settle for something to the line of Woodruff, Peralta, Ray and Diplan/Supak or Huira and one of Peralta/Woodruff and Diplan. I was trying to figure out a package that would keep us from giving up our pitchers that have MLB experience and Huira but getting to a financial place where we are able to stay under $125M was really tough and likely has too many moving parts to be realistic.

Free agents LHP Wade Miley 2 yrs $12M "Curtis Granderson 1yr $2m Util/2b Marwin Gonzalez 4yr $36m Trades Trade Corey Ray, Eric Thames, Domingo Santana, Marcos Diplan, and Tre Supak to Arizona for Paul Goldschmidt Trade Jesus Aguilar for something similar to the Adam Lind deal Projected Rotation Chase Anderson Jhoulys Chacin Corbin Burnes Wade Miley Zach Davies I would love to get a TOR but I think we have a lot of good arms that we need to see how they handle themselves in the first half season ie will Anderson be 2017 or 2018 Anderson, how about Davies?, how good will Nelson be? What does Burnes look like in the MLB over a longer stretch? We may not need a TOR or if we do I would like to wait until midseason to try to fill that hole as I think any will cost you Huira + one of the Woodruff/Peralta/Burnes or we will be taking on a of cost (Grienke) Projected Bullpen 3 inning relievers every 4ish days Jimmy Nelson Woodruff Junior Guerra Adrian Houser High Leverage Corey Knebel Jeremy Jeffress Josh Hader Situational Matt Albers Projected Starting Lineup CF Lorenzo Cain RF Christian Yelich 2B Marwin Gonzalez 1B Paul Goldschmidt 3B Travis Shaw LF Ryan Braun C Manny Pina P SS Orlando Arcia Projected Bench C Kratz IF/OF Hernan Perez OF Granderson OF Broxton Summary I am firmly of the belief that the rotation will be fine without a TOR as long as we have the bullpen to allow them to work short starts. I don’t want to see any of the starters go through the lineup more than 2 times. I added Granderson to the bench as a lefthanded on base guy who is a good clubhouse presence. I liked keeping Kratz over the cost of going with an outside addition at C for the clubhouse and game calling ability. With the addition of Gonzalez and Goldschmidt I feel we can stick with a little lower offensive production at catcher and stay with a good defensive tandem of Pina and Kratz. The bench is a bit light hitting overall with no big thumpers but I feel we are going to have more of an on base approach and Braun will be sitting plenty of days to rest with Granderson starting some of those games. Broxton back was the tough one. I was close to looking at swapping him out with Matt Davidson who just was non-tendered but chose to stick with him for his defense in the outfield and will let Perez play 3b against tough lefties to spell Shaw. I was thinking about bolstering the bullpen a bit and putting woodruff in AAA to start the season to stay stretched out or even just as insurance for a bullpen injury and pickup Britton or Miller but the cost of that seemed too high for my liking and the bats were more important. My plan comes in pretty much right at $125M. Not bad for our first World Series Championship ever!

I don’t know as if it is 4 quarters for a dollar. Goody is by far a more complete and far superior player than anyone in our trade will be. Now he is only for one year but you have to like the lineup that starts Cain Yellich goldy Shaw Braun with huira possibly up in June. You also keep all your arms and get grienke and while the dollars he is owed is high he has also performed well the last two years and is a good enough pitcher that while likely we won’t see ace level again he also won’t hurt you and will be a insistent arm out there. I honestly doubt he will go below 3 extra wins a season in any of the next three year unless injured

I was actually thinking something very similar but was trying to piece it together with Anderson Thames Albers Santana Ray houser lemons and diplan and stokes for grienke goldy and 15/20m

While I know in business windfalls don’t always make it back into the business and instead go to investors but I wonder if we won’t see mark a more willing to push the payroll up to say 130-140 maybe even 150 for a couple years while we have this window given the 50m payout last year, the new fox deal and seeeing the very good attendance. I’m not saying necessarily going after grienke because he does have concerns but I couldbefinately see possibly going after something similar where they take on a bigger contract knowing that it will be a few year stretch rather than pay a huge prospect cost if they can get the talent to push them over. I’m just not sure who it would be. The idea of greinke coming back to us is appealing but I think the appeal to me is more nestalgia of what he meant to us when he was here. That said he did have some nice counting numbers last year and I wouldn’t be shoelaces if he holds up better than Corbin over the next 3 years given corninsnheavy reliande on the slider.