paul253
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Should the Brewers be a seller instead?
paul253 replied to paul253's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
At this point, I'm wondering if you actually know what your position is. In your first post in this thread you wrote "I am convinced that even if they sneak into the playoffs they'll be a one a done because they can't win on the road. " You want to know what my position is? My position is that the Brewers are a borderline playoff team who will be lucky to win a first round series. My position is that they should be a lot better than they are and nobody can figure out why they are not. Is it possible for them to win the World Series? Of course it is. It's possible that Pittsburgh will win the World Series. But with the way they've played this year, this entire year (not last week, not that four game stretch in April, not any little stretch) it's very hard for me to see them going anywhere when/if they make the playoffs. Forgive me for thinking past a first round series. People are going back 24 years to find a team with comparable pitching and road rankings that won the Series. It's very easy for me to see them fall off significantly over the next few years as key members of the team leave and we have nobody to replace them with other than free agents. Next year people are talking about an upgrade at third and upgrade at short. They'll need to replace Fielder. They may need to replace 3 key bullpen members. They may need to find a good left handed reliever, and so on. I can see Gamel solving one of those issues but everything else is going to have to come from free agency because they have nobody left to trade. This organization cannot survive on free agency. I understand the "let's worry about it later" theory, but eventually it's going to be later and this team is not going to be very good. It's going to be a lot harder to fix the team when there are no trade assets. I personally would rather see them get an influx in young, cheap, controllable talent (just like the talent that got us to where we are today) that will keep them competitive for 4 or 5 years then to throw all our eggs in one basket. I felt differently before the year, but again, before the year I thought they'd be much better than this. Yes it's my fault for having those expectations, but can anyone honestly say they only expected 85 or 86 wins out of this team? People keep saying, well all we need is Greinke to get hot. Yes, that would be great but why do we assume that will happen? Because he has a lot of strikeouts? Marcum has been banged up. Gallardo had a nice start tonight but is he going to do it the next time out? Who knows. Everyone just assumes the best of this team which I think could be a mistake. My position is that if the Brewers have an opportunity to significantly improve their team in the immediate future they need to think about doing it. Of course they aren't going to sell now. But at the end of the year they might have to. For all those people who are against this all, if you were offered Julio Teheran for Greinke right now, would you accept it? It would be a P.R. nightmare, but I'd accept that deal in a heartbeat. And I'm not asking if you think Atlanta would offer it because we all know they wouldn't, but if they did would you accept it? -
Should the Brewers be a seller instead?
paul253 replied to paul253's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Paul, you've made more than compelling arguments for why they MIGHT not win the division or make the playoffs, I don't think anyone's arguing that. But saying that they should in fact be sellers is a huge stretch, and there've been more than enough counters to that argument. I'm not in fact saying they should be sellers. I'm simply bringing up the idea of it and seeing what it would accomplish vs having them continue what they are doing now, not just this year but the next couple of years after that. Perhaps I jumped the gun and we should be having this conversation after the season as we all know they aren't going to sell now. But people on here are so resigned to the fact that they are going to make the playoffs. That's fine. They certainly have a very got chance of doing it. But if they don't, this season is going to be about as big of a failure as any season could be. And if they don't make the playoffs this year, how can we expect them to do it next year? Do you NOT think that the casual fans who are coming out at the rate of 3 mil, or almost 3 mil per season are going to renew if they were to trade off Greinke, Marcum, Prince, and Axford? By renew do you mean season tickets? If so, I wouldn't refer to them as casual fans. I don't think casual fans are buying season ticket packages. And forget about Fielder. He's gone anyway. I think you could make a VERY good argument for trading Axford, depending of course on what you get in return. I also think you could make a very good argument for trading the other two if you don't think they'll resign. Obviously Melvin and Co. have a much better idea of whether or not that can be accomplished. But you don't build your team around who you think the fans like. If you did, they'd never have traded JJ Hardy. You build the best team possible and once they start winning the fans will come, just like they have. It's not about individual players, it's about the team's record. I also take issue with the idea that trading those 4 will set the organization back for years and push us into a rebuilding mode. Axford is replaceable. Most closers are. Fielder is gone anyway and you may very well end up with a second round pick and a supplemental first round pick for him if someone like Chicago or Baltimore signs him. Marcum and Greinke are really the two main pieces here. If Marcum pitches next year like he has this year he may very well hit the FA market hoping to score big, and we've all seen teams overspend to get pitching. If Greinke returns to form he may opt to do the same thing. On the flip side, if Greinke pitches next year like he has this year, that's three down seasons in a row. I believe he'd be 29 by the time he signs a new contract and pitchers start to go downhill not long after that. Would you really want to throw all hopes into a 29 year old pitcher coming off of 3 down years? While his value may not be highest right now, I don't see the harm in dangling out there to see what you get in return. If someone like the Braves get desperate and offer someone like Teheran would you take it? I sure hope so. At this point, I'd wager the draft comp would be MORE valuable than the players we're likely to get in return for a 65 game rental of Prince. That I very much disagree with. Draft picks are a crap shoot, especially when you start getting into the 30's and lower where one or both may end up being. -
Should the Brewers be a seller instead?
paul253 replied to paul253's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
They are never going to field a team as good as the powers in the AL East What does the AL East have anything to do with this? Right now they are barely fielding a team as good as the rest of the teams in the NL Central. They are more than capable of fielding a team that can win 90-94 games, but they have to start doing something they've never done under Doug Melvin. They need to start developing their own top of the rotation starting pitchers. Monty I don't disagree with a lot of what you said, and like I did say right away in post one....i am only half serious about this idea. But you are overlooking one issue. While the casual fan may think of us as the "same old Brewers" if we make the trades, will they not also think that way when we start having .500 and below .500 seasons 4 or 5 years in a row? The difference is that one way (trade the players and bring in elite prospects) is the quick rip off the band-aid approach. It may hurt right away but ultimately the pain goes away quicker. The other way (shoot for the stars this year and hope we have enough left to do it again next season) is the slow, peel it off one inch at a time until it is finally off approach. It may not hurt as much initially, but you are spreading the pain out over a longer period of time. To me, the only thing worse than going into a season with no expectations whatsoever of making the playoffs is to have to do that multiple seasons in a row. Under the current approach, it is an absolute necessity that both Marcum and Greinke are resigned. While it's not impossible for that to happen, by 2013 you may end up paying the two of them plus Braun and Weeks about 35-40% of your total payroll. Not a terrible thing, but when that happens you need a lot of cheap, young and GOOD players to supplement the others. Right now, it doesn't appear as though we have many of those type of players. I hope I'm wrong, I really really do. But I just wonder....if this team does not make the playoffs this season is going to have to be considered an absolute failure. Not just because they didn't make they playoffs, but because they didn't make the playoffs despite playing in arguably the worst division in baseball. -
Should the Brewers be a seller instead?
paul253 replied to paul253's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'd certainly rather do that than trade away Fielder because we may not be able to beat the Yankees in the World Series. Or the Pirates to win the division. -
Should the Brewers be a seller instead?
paul253 replied to paul253's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'd also like to know, if selling is so important to the success cycle, who is the last prospect the Brewers traded for that turned out to be a key piece of a winning team? Because honestly, right now, I'm coming up empty on that one. That's not the point. Teams who sell are usually way out of the playoff race so them turning around and getting good immediately isn't likely to happen. The point is not strictly about selling but about building the organization from within, which includes trading for prospects. That's how Milwaukee got good to begin with and that's what they need to do to stay competitive. As far as examples though, I'd say the Jake Peavy trade worked out ok so far for SD. Richard has a sub 4 ERA, like he did last season, while Peavy hasn't done much of anything for Chicago and has been hurt most of the time. Obviously the Brewers trading Sexson worked out ok, as did the Marlins trading Josh Beckett. Just because these deals did not occur at the deadline doesn't mean you can't classify them as "sellers" because they still took their best player and traded him away to a team who thought they'd contend. That's too definitive. Since the NL has homefield, the Brewers wouldn't need to win a road game in the WS, if they got that far. As far as the series before that, we don't know right know how everything would shake out. Yes obviously it's an assumption that the team that comes out of the NL will have the worst record in the league. Right now that team (Pittsburgh) is 4.5 games behind SF for that spot so the assumption isn't all that out of line. It's not too definitive to say that if things play out like they are on pace to, Milwaukee won't be able to win the World Series by winning one road game like your Minnesota example did. It's possible the team could move up and get into home field advantage in the first round of course but only time will tell if that happens. It has been a long road back to respectability, and "selling" now would be a big step in returning the Brewers to laughing-stock status. So you think by trading Fielder, who we will lose anyway, Axford, who while good is replaceable by K-Rod, Greinke who has an ERA over 5 and Marcum that we will go back to laughingstock status? Understand I am not suggesting we trade them just for the sake of trading them. Obviously I expect good players back, players who are capable of either taking over now or taking over next season or at the latest the year after that (remember this was all based on Colorado's asking price for Ubaldo Jimenez). This team will not be a laughing stock with all the players they have locked up, especially when supplemented in a year or two by the 6 to 7 prospects you'd get in return for those 4 players I mentioned. What the Brewers are currently on track for is that their farm system is so bad that they are going to have to rely on free agency for the next several years to remain competitive. That formula hasn't worked out very well for them lately and usually doesn't for small market teams. Absolutely. If you are saying that a team like the current Brewers can't win the World Series, I offer an example of a team that has some similarities that has done so. I'm not saying a team like the Brewers CAN'T win the World Series, I'm saying that it's not very likely to happen. By having to go back almost a quarter of century to find a team like them that did win the World Series, a team that had to win fewer series in the playoffs by the way, you are almost unintentionally making my point stronger. If you can see the flawed logic in that, then you can see the flawed logic to this whole thread. Again, missing the point. I'm not saying "hey we're not going to win the World Series so let's sell and try again next year". I'm saying "hey, this team isn't showing a whole lot that gives me confidence that they can even get to the playoffs, let alone the World Series, AND the window to remain competitive is closing very quickly. We are losing our team, and possibly league, MVP next season and replacing him with an unproven Mat Gamel (not to mention all the bullpen free agents and the black holes at shortstop and third base to worry about), and we may lose three of our four best starters the year after that with not a whole lot in the system to replace them with. If the Brewers don't make the playoffs this season then I don't know how anyone could conclude that Melvin's tenure as GM hasn't been a horrible let down. This I couldn't agree with more. When Melvin took over, the team was bad but the farm system was one of the best in baseball. If the above happens, he'd leave with one playoff appearance and the worst system by far in baseball. That's not really a good trade-off. If you are going to exit with the worst system, I'd prefer more than one little playoff series that they'd needed a ton of help from the Mets to even get to. This entire thing reminds me of the housing crisis (haha great comparison huh?) When it was booming everything looked peachy and everyone was happy. But there were people out there saying, "hey this is going to come crashing down awfully quickly and maybe we should prepare for that". Then it does crash and everyone says "we should have done something sooner". That's all I'm saying. In my lowly little opinion, this franchise is going to come crashing down pretty soon. I really hope I'm wrong, but maybe we should start preparing for it. Maybe that means playing things out now and selling after the season or maybe it means doing nothing, but a franchise like Milwaukee simply cannot continue down it's current path. We are quickly running out of players to trade and don't have enough money to fill all our holes with free agents. -
Should the Brewers be a seller instead?
paul253 replied to paul253's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
First of all, they're IN FIRST PLACE despite having not played consistent baseball. Not any more. For all the people using the "they are in first place" excuse it's not the case any more. Yes it's just half a game out of first, but if people can use that argument when they are in first by half a game, I can use it when they are tied for second and a half game out. Trading for...just for arguments sake, Aramis Ramirez and Jamey Carroll completely changes the way this team looks. That gives you 8 everyday players who are capable of hitting .280+, and 6 guys capable of hitting 25+ HR's. Who are you going to trade to get Aramis Ramirez and Jamey Carroll? You think Chicago is just going to give us Ramirez because they are out of it? If they can get two picks for him we'd have to give up a heck of a lot to get him and we don't have a heck of a lot to give up. Seriously, who are going to trade to get Ramirez and Carroll? Peralta? Thornburg? Davis? Schafer? It'll probably take 4 prospects to get the two of them, this on top of the two we have to give to the Mets. What do you think giving up 6 prospects out of the already worst farm system is going to do for the future of the franchise? Expecting a pitcher who has as good of stuff as anyone in the game, who's having a historically unlucky season and who is just two years removed from a Bob Gibson circa 1967 type season, it's hardly a huge if that his bottom line will represent his peripherals..which hereto now are absolutely absurd. 12 K's per 9? 6-1 KK/BB ratio? As we saw in Col, his defense has been killing him. Two moderate trades to improve SS and 3rd is hardly out of the question. You can use the "potential" argument all you want but it doesn't hold water with me. The fact is, he hasn't been pitching overly well this season. If you look at this season compared to his Cy Young Season....his WHIP is significantly higher, his ERA is more than double, he's already given up as many home runs through 14 starts as he did in 33 starts then (in the AL no less), his batting average against is significantly higher, he's giving up more fly balls, he's giving up more hits per 9 innings, and so on. You're basing this all on his walk to strikeout ratio? And you say the defense is killing him? Well I got news for you. The defense isn't getting any better. So he's gonna have to do it on his own. What has he done in his career that suggests it's a big if that he could get hot and perform well down the stretch? While you are looking at his history, I am looking at what he is doing this season. He can get hot down the stretch. He's a good pitcher and certainly has the ability. But so far this season, he's not pitching well consistently. He's been having a lot of bad starts. Looking at his game log I'd say 7 or 8 of his 20 starts were bad starts. That's about 35 or 40% of his starts. You cannot rely on someone who has a bad start two out of every five games. Those two are more LIKELY to happen than unlikely, This statement just irritates me. Why is it automatically more likely for them to start doing something that neither has done all season long than it is for them to keep doing what they have been doing? Your conviction does not match history. The 87 Twins only had to play one series to get into the World Series. The 2011 Brewers could not win the World Series by winning one road game. You are taking a major outlier and trying to use it to disprove my point. In another comparison to the 87 Twins, their pitching was 11th out of 14. That team also won only 85 games total. So just to be clear, you are going back 24 years to find a team with a comparable ranking to find one who won the World Series? More recently, I went back and checked out the National League team who entered the playoffs with the worst record of the four playoff teams. Since 1995 (16 years), the team with the worst record made the World Series three times (06 St Louis with 83 wins, 02 Giants who had 95 wins and 00 Mets who had 94 wins. As you can see, two of the three teams had pretty good records, much better than Milwaukee's is on track be, when they made the Series). So if the Brewers make the playoffs, and assuming the would enter with the worst record as they currently sit 5 or 6 games behind the Giants for that race, chances are not good for them to make the Series. It can happen, but usually doesn't. That's why I say I can't see them as a World Series team even if they do sneak into the playoffs. I feel like the entire argument is based on road record. This has much more to do with the fact that this team is not nearly as good as I thought they'd be and after this season it may very well be a long, long fall down to mediocrity that's going to take half a decade to climb out of because the system is bereft or any impact talent. IF they can resign Marcum and Greinke, they may have a chance to continue being successful, but there's going to be a lot of money tied up in a relatively few players. That means the system is going to have to get better in a hurry. Do I think the Brewers are going to sell? Of course not. If I were the Brewers would I sell? Probably not because the common fan would never forgive me. From a pure baseball perspective where the goal is to compete every single year, would I then consider trading Fielder Marcum Greinke and Axford? Absolutely. -
Should the Brewers be a seller instead?
paul253 replied to paul253's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
With all due respect to the original poster this is one of those threads we dig up if the team wins the World Series. I hope you do. I'm not writing this because I don't like the Brewers or don't think they have the ability to make the playoffs this year. That being said, at this very moment I don't think they can reach the World Series and I don't think they can make the playoffs next season. I want them to be competitive every year, not just pretty good one year then average or below average the next 4 seasons, which I think is where the franchise is heading. I was very high on Milwaukee's playoff chances coming into the season based on 2 assumptions. I assumed they'd have a good, consistent offense and a good, consistent starting rotation. Both are good but neither is consistent. And after this season, I see things going downhill pretty fast and staying down for at least 3 or 4 years. Even with all of those trades, the realistic view of the team was that they had holes But the other realistic view is that the pitching staff was vastly improved. It is better than last year (4.12 ERA right now vs 4.58 last season) but ranking wise it's not much improved. Last year they were 14th in the NL in team ERA. This year they are tied for 12th, but only .01 of percentage point out of 14th. All it takes is a move or two and some good luck, and a team can go on a tear. If that happens in the playoffs, you're gold. Yes, but with the inconsistency they've been playing with all season they are just as capable of losing 8 in a row as they are of winning 8 in a row. If that happens, they are now 4 or 5 games out of first place and probably in 4th. Not out of it by any means but certainly makes it much harder, especially with their winning percentage away from Milwaukee. The Brewers also play pretty bad defense. I think it's harder for a team to have a lot of good luck when they can't play defense. If they move Braun to 1B next season (which they should do anyways to avoid wear & tear on his legs) and use some of the Prince $$$ on a very good LF, they should be plenty competitive next season. It is 2013 that is more of a concern, with Greinke & Marcum likely gone then Looking at potential free agents I don't see a whole lot of good left or right fielders out there to get. There are also facing the possibility of losing three key relievers in K-Rod, Saito, and Hawkins so the bullpen will need to be addressed. And shortstop obviously. With all due respect to some of the posters here, I see a lot of "our rotation has the potential...." and "our rotation could be just as good as....". The season is 60% over and they are tied for 12th in the league out of 16 teams in ERA. The pitching staff doesn't just need get better. They need to get a lot better. -
Should the Brewers be a seller instead?
paul253 replied to paul253's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
What were you expecting? A 100 win team? Right now they are targeted for 86 wins. I expected 90 this year, so that puts them slightly below my expectations. Selling right now would be grounds for immediate firing of DM. Maybe not a 100 win team, but certainly a 92-94 win team. I was expecting a consistent offense that could hit as well on the road as they do at home, a Zack Greinke that I could rely on every single game, a Yovani Gallardo who pitched like he did last season, and a bullpen that didn't blow lead after lead. I was expecting a team that wouldn't be in a dog fight with Pittsburgh to get into the playoffs and a team that was better than 13 in the NL in team ERA. Right now they are targeted for 86 wins. Before the season, if I told you we were going to trade out best hitting prospect, our best pitching prospect, our starting shortstop and our likely starting centerfielder and we'd finish a cool 10 games over .500, would you have been satisfied? I would not have. And I hope I'm wrong but I don't think 86 wins is going to win the division. If they can get Greinke and Gallardo going at the same time, I like their chances against anybody, including Philly. That's a pretty big if though. Gallardo is the model of inconsistency this season and Greinke hasn't been pitching very well all season long. Why is this team 'not a World Series team'? Look at the other potential playoff teams. Philly: 5 games over .500 on the road. Atlanta: 6 games over .500 on the road. SF: 2 games over .500 on the road. Pittsburgh: 4 games over .500 on the road. St Louis: A game over .500 on the road. Arizona: 2 games over .500 on the road. Milwaukee: 13 games UNDER .500 on the road. Only Cleveland and Detroit are in playoff contention and under .500 on the road, but neither are anywhere near as bad as Milwaukee. If you can't win on the road, especially when you don't have home field advantage like they probably wouldn't, you aren't a World Series team. This isn't like the NFL where you win one game and move on. You need to beat a team 3 times to advance to the second round and then 4 times to get to the World Series. The Brewers numbers, both pitching and hitting, are much worse on the road than they are at home. The sky is falling. This is not based on them losing 4 games in a row, or Greinke having two or three bad outings in a row or anything else that occurred over the course of a week. This is about the team as a whole after more than half of the season. The Brewers are tied for 13th in the NL in team ERA. That's not good. This is basically the same team as last season. Lead the league in HR's and Slugging, slightly about average in OBP, bad in pitching. It's not a good formula for success in my opinion. Look, I'm not suggesting they do this and I don't think they would. But this franchise is in trouble. Let's face it, without Prince Fielder this season this is not a playoff team. He's been that important. He's gone next year. I'm as high on Gamel as anyone but he has yet to prove himself at the major league level. St. Louis may lose Pujols, but we'll definitely lose Fielder. They get Adam Wainwright back though. Pittsburgh is getting better, Cincy has some issues but they have a nice core as well. Our farm system is empty. Peralta and Thornburg are just about it as far as high ceiling pitching. And high ceiling hitters? I don't know, maybe Khris Davis but that's about it. I'd prefer a team that can compete every season, not one and possibly two season before dropping off significantly. And IF you are going to go for the "all in" route, I'd think the team should be a lot better than this team is. Enough with the "potential". It's time for results. -
Yes I am only half kidding about this and don't expect them to because the Brewers obviously went "all-in" this year, but is that a mistake? In my opinion they are not living up to expectations, not even close, and I am convinced that even if they sneak into the playoffs they'll be a one a done because they can't win on the road. After this year, Prince is gone and the chances of making the playoffs are even smaller. After that, obviously Wolf, Marcum and Greinke are free agents and who knows what will happen. I've heard the market for starting pitchers is so weak the Colorado is considering trading Jimenez in the hopes people will look more at his 2010 than 2011. They are said to be looking for two or three high ceiling prospects. I've read that as many as 12 teams have checked in on Jimenez. Would Marcum bring something equal or better in return considering his contract ends at the same time (Jimenez has the option to terminate his contract after next season if he gets traded) and he seems to be pitching better than Jimenez? If you could get a Banuelos or Betances from NY or something similar from another team would you go for it? Or if you get a #1 or #2 ceiling prospect pitcher for Greinke? And teams are always looking for relief help. I understand Texas is looking for a closer. Why not trade Axford, the ultimate sell-high player? If you could get one legit starting pitching prospect why not go for it? You still have K-Rod for the 9th and can offer him arby after the year. Closers are the most overrated position in the game. And finally Fielder. Obviously trading him would amount to giving up (unless you think we could still make the playoffs with Gamel) but just imagine what one of the leading MVP candidates could bring in. Probably at least 2 or 3 high ceiling position prospects. This team is not a World Series team. I hate to say it because I am a huge fan and a partial season ticket holder. But considering that the team is going to lose Fielder I just have a bad feeling that this team is going to be no better than a .500 team for the next 4-5 seasons. They just don't have any impact prospects anywhere in the system and the current core of the team are all in their prime and getting expensive. Just imagine how well you could rebuild the system by trading Axford, Fielder, Marcum and Greinke. And with guys like Braun, Hart, Morgan, Weeks, McGehee, Gallardo, and Wolf, future regular Gamel, and possible future regulars in Green, Gindl and Schafer, it's not like you're going to be trotting out a bunch of AAAA players every day. If you can trade the four I listed and get replacements for Marcum and Greinke's rotation spots who have #1-#3 potential plus additional high ceiling prospects, I think you need to strongly consider doing so even knowing that it may ruin your chance to win the division this season. The future of the organization is a huge question mark and I hate to see them stick to this "win now at all costs" motto when the "winning now" isn't going so well.
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Is it too early to ask about the 2012 draft?
paul253 replied to paul253's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
What about Saito? Is there any chance he can rebound and become a type B? It's possible the Brewers could have a lot of picks between possible losses of Fielder, Hawkins, Saito and K-Rod. Why not offer all of them arby? Fielder obviously won't accept. I doubt K-Rod would either because I'm sure Boras doesn't want him taking away one of his prime years on a one year arbitration decided deal. And even if Hawkins and/or Saito accept, it's not the end of the world. They'd have to sign some bullpen arms anyway if they lost all three of them. -
Didn't want to start a new thread here, but can someone tell me who has the highest upside between Hunter Morris, Cody Hawn and Nick Ramirez?
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The best move would be having Davis in LF and Gamel in RF with Braun moving to 1B. I'd be fine with that. Whoever is the better LF between Braun and Davis with Gamel in right and the other at first base. You'd have to have an awfully good center fielder to make up for that outfield defense though.
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But what do I know, I am still scratching my head as to why Evan Frederickson was released. Frederickson just could not throw strikes. I don't care how good your stuff is our how high your ceiling is, if you walk as many people as Frederickson did you just cannot succeed. I am encouraged by the fact that Arnett doesn't seem to be walking a lot of people, but he's giving up a ton of hits.
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There was an article today about how Rickie Weeks should wear his hat properly. Enough said. I'm high on Davis but his lack of position is troubling. I think he'd make a fine first basemen, but Milwaukee seems intent on wasting a high draft pick on a college first basemen every year so there may not be a position for him. Why not try Gamel in RF once Davis is ready for the big leagues. Gamel has a RF arm and I thought I remembered him saying he'd rather play RF than 1B.
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I'll try to be as nice as I can here, but people who comment about the Brewers on the JS are a wee bit uninformed.
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Just completely a guess but Corey Hart's contract goes through 2013. Hart will be a free agent in 2014. The Brewers are not going to rush Davis in the slightest and instead will hope he proves to be a great replacement for Hart in 2013 or 2014 I can see the Brewers doing this. It's dumb, but that's kind of why I can see them doing it. You never hold a prospect back to time it with the impending free agency of another player. If Khris Davis got promoted today and rakes the rest of the year in AA, it would be a real possibility to trade Corey Hart in the off season to help boost the system. Also, what if Davis stays in BC all season then Hart gets hurt for a month to start the season like he did this year? Khris Davis should have been promoted 3 weeks ago and every time I see a BC box score I wonder what the Brewers are thinking holding him back in A+.
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But then you have teams like the Brewers, who if compensation goes away will get absolutely nothing for losing Fielder. At least under the current system they get some sort of ammunition to reload their farm system. I'm at the point where I'd be fine with the whole thing going away. It's a joke and it hurts the worst teams. The whole draft is a joke. North Americans have to be drafted but everyone else is a free agent? That's crap. If MLB is going to continue to refuse to address the problems with payrolls and if they are going to continue to fool themselves into thinking there is as much parity in MLB as there is in any other sport then the least they can do is take the draft seriously. This is the only tool small market teams have to try to compete with everyone else and even the draft favors large market teams. Baseball has 30 teams. The first pick in the "second round" last draft was pick #61. That means the Pirates had to wait for basically an entire round of comp picks before they got to pick again. That's not right. I'd rather just see the changes be as follows. Sign a type A free agent, lose your first round pick. Sign another type A, lose your second round pick. And so on. No type B's.
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If I were Melvin, I wouldn't have to agreed to not offer arby. Milwaukee would have just used Axford as the closer, K-Rod would not get his guaranteed year, and then they could have offered him arby if they wanted to. If Melvin did agree to this, I think he made a big mistake. He needs all the draft picks he can get.
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I for one (well probably not for one) would be absolutely furious if Khris Davis is included in this trade. He is easily the best overall hitting prospect in the system. I also would be mad if Komatsu is traded. I guess it's true that he doesn't really have enough power to be a corner outfielder, but I've always been one to favor OBP ahead of power and he is having a really good year in AA. Even though he's struggled lately his OBP is still .388 and he has more walks than strikeouts. I also hope Logan Schafer isn't one to be traded. I think he would be a great replacement for Morgan after the 2012 season and is a candidate to lead off and FINALLY get Rickie Weeks further down in the lineup. Week's power is going to have to be utilized better once Fielder leaves. I could a 2013 lineup of something like Schafer, Komatsu, Weeks, Braun, Gamel.......Anyway, those are the three hitters I really hope aren't included.....Davis, Komatsu and Schafer. I'd be ok with something like McClendon and Gennett or McClendon and one of the too many 1B we have at the lower level (Hawn? Halton? Dennis?)
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McCalvy: Melvin hints no ‘top’ prospects in K-Rod deal That's good, except Milwaukee doesn't have any top prospects in their system so it pretty much leaves anyone. I have no idea who this will include, but I have a list of guys I really, really hope it doesn't include. Peralta, Thornburg, Scarpetta, Fiers, Schafer, Komatsu, Khris Davis, and Gennett. I think some people are really underestimating Khris Davis and Logan Schafer. I can see Davis eventually ending up at first base if Gamel and Hunter Morris don't pan out. And Schafer I predict as our starting centerfielder in 2013. If this ends up being something like Jimmy Nelson, Del Howell, Lee Haydel, Cody Hawn, etc I'll be thrilled.
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Starting Rotation Order Post All Star Break?
paul253 replied to iheartcorey's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Because the best three from the first half doesn't mean they'll be your best three moving forward. Of course not, but they are more likely to be. Greinke has to put together a string of 3 or 4 quality starts in a row before I am willing to consider him an ace of this staff. No matter how you cut it, Greinke still has to be counted on as your #1 for a couple reasons. First, he's shown he's more than capable of it, despite running into some obvious hiccups. He can dominate like no Brewers pitcher since Sheets(and obviously CC). I disagree. You don't count on Greinke because of what he can do. You count on pitchers based on what they are currently doing. Greinke has yet to show any of the domination you speak of and I don't think the Brewers should throw him out there as their #1 or #2 under the assumption he'll get better. I think Marcum, Gallardo, and Wolf have all pitched better than him so far and should be facing the opponents best pitchers. Second, if he doesn't step up and become a legit #1, the Brewers aren't going anywhere either. This I disagree with as well. They are in first place with him having a pretty bad season so far. Obviously him improving will help significantly but I don't think the entire season depends on him. -
Starting Rotation Order Post All Star Break?
paul253 replied to iheartcorey's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
That rotation is a little strange to me. Why not go with Marcum, Gallardo, and Wolf? They've been your three best pitchers. -
I don't like the idea of switching Weeks between leadoff and fifth. I'd like to see something like this. vs Righties: 1) Morgan 2) Weeks 3) Braun 4) Fielder 5) Hart 6) McGehee 7) Lucroy 8) Bentancourt vs Lefties 1) Gomez 2) Weeks 3) Braun 4) Fielder 5) Hart 6) MeGehee 7) Lucroy 8) Bentancourt Gomez hits lefties well enough and we don't face them that often so I could handle him batting leadoff every now and then. I think Weeks will be much more productive out of the 2 hole assuming he doesn't change his approach. Bentancourt needs to be replaced but Counsell isn't much better and obviously can't play more than 2 or 3 days in a row. I'd actually like to see them move Wilson down and bring Taylor Green up. Green can back up third and second and Counsell can concentrate on backing up shortstop.
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Now I will pretense this by saying that I will not, and I hope nobody else will judge anyone who answers this. I also hope people can be honest and not answer based on what they think sounds good because it'll likely never happen. I read an article that the guy who caught Jeter's 3000th hit would have given it back for nothing, but the Yankees gave him a nice little package anyway. One estimate was that the ball could have fetched up to $250,000. If you caught this ball, or someone else's 3000th hit, or maybe a record Home Run ball, and you were offered $250,000 for it, what would you do? Would you take the money, or would you give it back? I personally would have a very, very hard time not selling it. At the risk of sounding selfish, I do have a house to pay off. And paying it off now would potentially save me $50k-$75k in interest payments over the course of my 30 year loan. I can just imagine how nice it would be not to have to take that huge chunk of change out of my accounts every month to pay the mortgage. I also have a car with 87,000 miles that needs to be replaced soon. I do think the athlete, Jeter in this case, should have the first opportunity to buy it from me. And let's face it, $250k is chump change to someone like him. He made like $30 million last year alone in salary and endorsements. 250k is not even 1% of that. Any baseball player whose ball is worth that much money is more than likely taking in a huge yearly salary. I'd love to say I was the guy who'd be unselfish enough to just give the ball back, but this is a once in a lifetime opportunity, like winning the lottery, that I just couldn't pass up.

