bluescale

What issues do the Cubs have in their bullpen? Their starting rotation has underperformed, but their bullpen has been excellent.

I agree with your point, but I don't think Kirk Gibson fits in with that group. He had a 5 year stretch where he was worth ~24 fWAR and 25 bWAR. He won an MVP award, and received votes in 3 other seasons. He was a pretty good player in his prime.

The Fangraphs projections have them scoring 4.72 runs per game. That puts them 7th in the NL behind (in order of best to worst) the Cubs, Nationals, Rockies, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Diamondbacks. If things break right for the Brewers, and wrong for one or more of the teams above them, I could see the Brewers sneak into the top 4 offenses in the NL. I just don't see the problem being run scoring. They should be at least decent, and could easily be very good. Run prevention is much is a much bigger question mark. Most projection systems seem to think that the Brewers over preformed in this area last year. I guess the season will give us a better idea whether the projections, or last year's performance, are more accurate indicators of true talent.

If they hurt themselves, there's nothing the MLBPA can do to protect them. No one will offer them a contract (depending on the injury, of course).

If the Brewers sign Arrieta to such a short contract for such a low AAV, I'll eat my hat. In fact, I'll eat every hat in the house.

Yeah...you can't really sign a guy to a 6 year contract, and then talk about how he was choice #3. I honestly think Epstein/Hoyer wanted Darvish from the beginning (they even flew out to meet him at the beginning of the off season), but didn't think he fit in their budget. Then when Cobb said he wanted $20M a year, and Darvish's market never developed, the Cubs saw an opportunity and changed course.

It's always good to have a true #1. The good news for the Brewers is that if Nelson's jump last year was real (and his peripheral stats indicate a genuine leap in skill, not luck), and if the changes don't contribute to injury risk, he's a true #1 pitcher. He put up his numbers with a hugely unlucky .340 BABIP. It's probably unrealistic to expect him to return to that level when he comes back midway through 2018, but 2019 looks promising.

Very interesting approach. Like you said, there may be some holes, but it still paints a picture. Let's take a look how this same information looks for the Cardinals and the Cubs: [pre] Cardinals ZiPS ERA FIP ERA- K/9 BB/9 zWAR Appx. Slot (based mainly on ERA, FIP, and ERA-) Martinez 3.36 3.53 82 9.1 3.0 4.4 1-2 Wacha 3.02 3.81 95 8.2 3.7 2.8 2-3 Weaver 3.77 3.68 89 8.2 2.3 2.1 2-3 Mikolas 4.13 4.24 98 7.7 3.0 2.0 3-4 Wainwright 4.09 3.87 97 7.0 2.8 1.6 3-4[/pre] [pre] Cubs ZiPS ERA FIP ERA- K/9 BB/9 zWAR Appx. Slot (based mainly on ERA, FIP, and ERA-) Quintana 3.19 3.13 73 9.1 2.2 4.9 1 Darvish 3.24 3.22 76 11.0 2.7 4.0 1 Lester 3.54 3.69 85 8.9 2.5 3.5 2 Hendricks 3.48 3.74 80 7.9 2.3 3.2 1-2 Chatwood 4.24 4.34 100 7.2 4.2 1.7 3[/pre] If the Cubs hadn't signed Darvish, his projected numbers would have been replaced with: [pre] ERA FIP ERA- K/9 BB/9 zWAR Appx. Slot (based mainly on ERA, FIP, and ERA-) Montgomery 4.11 4.43 102 7.5 4.2 1.5 4[/pre] Signing Darvish really changed the quality of the Cubs' rotation significantly.

I know this is nitpicking, but I don't think such a contract would be possible, even if both sides wanted it. fWAR (or any other iteration of WAR) isn't an official stat, and therefore subject to change. What happens if Fangraphs unexpectedly closes up shop sometime in the middle of his contract?

The Cubs offered Arrieta $110M NOW, so it's clear they don't think he's a husk of a pitcher. And I would argue that a #2 is still at the top of the rotation. The question is whether or not he's a #2 long term.

So...a few things to keep in mind: The Cubs did try to sign Arrieta to an extension in 2015, and told Arrieta/Boras that they'd be open to signing an extension in 2016 and 2017. The Cubs reportedly offered Arrieta 4/$110M, which is obviously less than he wants for years. The sticking point since 2015 is the number of years. The Cubs don't need a TOR starter, but without one, they're going to have a hard time competing with playoff teams. While the Cubs don't need a TOR starter, they absolutely need starting pitching depth as KeithStone53151 pointed out. In 2015 and 2016 the Cubs had freaky good health in the starting rotation. That took a step back in 2017. Montgomery was pretty good as a fill in, but that needs to be his roll - depth for both the rotation and bullpen. I think the lack of interest thing is reporters (specifically Nightengale) speculating during a boring off season.

What makes you say that? Woodruff had a grand total of 3 games where he topped 6 innings. At no point in his minor league did he come particularly close to averaging 6 innings a game. Fangraphs refers to him as, "a big-league-ready, sinker/slider fourth starter." Unless he can bring his strikeout rate up (which his minor league history shows is a possibility), I think that's about right. Among qualified starting pitchers, he would have been 47th out of 58 in k/9.

Well, we don't know what he wants, or what he's been offered. The rumors are so all over the place, I don't know what to believe. That's not the point I'm making, though. My point is that I don't believe Darvish feels the issue is the team; it's the offer.

I think this is a misread of the situation. I doubt the problem is that he has a strong preference NOT to play for the Brewers. If he feels his best offer is a lowball, he's going to continue holding out. The fact that the best offer is from Milwaukee is probably irrelevant at this point.

Bauer is a cost controlled, GB pitcher whose peripheral stats are trending in the right direction, and who would surely benefit from moving to the NL. He's exactly the kind of pitcher the Brewers should be targeting. He also told someone on Twitter to go commit suicide, so maybe not: "you're welcome to quit life. We won't miss you" https://twitter.com/BauerOutage/status/829909955679502338?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fstorify.com%2FJoeNogaCLE%2Ftrevor-bauer-lights-twitter-on-fire-with-rant-abou%2Fembed%3Fheader%3Dfalse%26border%3Dfalse I mean, it's a snide remark to someone who was being snide to him, but I have to wonder what kind of a human being says something that cruel to a stranger. I'm pretty sure that's the kind of thing that would get him banned from this and most message boards - rightfully. Amazingly, it's a year later and he hasn't deleted the tweet. If a was a front office guy, I wouldn't want him anywhere near my fans.