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Jackson Gottfreid

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Blog Entries posted by Jackson Gottfreid

  1. Jackson Gottfreid
    As the trade deadline approaches on July 31, the Milwaukee Brewers currently sit one game back of the Chicago Cubs for first place in the division with a 55-40 record. While Milwaukee ranks 7th in the league in runs per game with 4.73, the Brewers have hit 91 home runs, ranking 23rd in baseball. For a team that has the pitching to make a push towards the playoffs, the offense must continue to pull its weight. The Brewers have been an offensive anomaly this season, holding a league-average OPS+ of 100, ranking 18th in wOBA at .311 and 22nd in the MLB with a .383 SLG. Of the six teams ahead of Milwaukee in runs per game, the next-closest team for total home runs hit is the Boston Red Sox, and they have slugged 30 more home runs than the Crew. While the Brewers have seemingly perfected their brand of baseball, stealing bases, making contact, and moving runners over, the offense can take the next step by adding more power. In fact, powerful lineups become even more important once the postseason begins because it is more difficult to string hits together against better pitching staffs. This analysis details the importance of hitting home runs in the postseason. 
    While Andrew Vaughn has been successful in his five games for the Brewers after coming over in a trade on June 13 with the White Sox, driving in 10 runs in 14 at-bats, the production is not sustainable. This season, Vaughn has a 63 wRC+ and a 66 OPS+ while possessing a mark around the league average in his previous two seasons with the White Sox. 
    The player who can elevate this Brewers' offense for the most important stretch of the season is Baltimore Orioles first baseman Ryan O’Hearn. The Orioles are almost certainly going to be sellers at the deadline, posting a 43-51 record thus far after back-to-back playoff appearances in 2023 and 2024. O’Hearn stands at 6’2, 220lbs and earned his first all-star selection this year since making his MLB debut in 2018 with the Kansas City Royals. The left-handed hitter holds a .288/.385/.461 line with 11 home runs. If inserted into the Brewers' lineup, O’Hearn would currently rank fourth on the team in long balls. O’Hearn has never hit more than 15 homers in a season, but is currently on pace to hit over 20 this year. 
    O’Hearn’s quality of contact has improved over the course of his MLB career. The former 2014 draft pick went from the bottom 10 percentiles in wOBA in 2019 and 2020 to inside the top 10% this season at .369, marking the second-highest point in his career. Importantly, over 170 plate appearances in 2018, O’Hearn compiled a wOBA of .398, but his xwOBA was 53 points lower, showing the quality of contact was not on par with the positive results. This season, however, O’Hearn’s xwOBA is 10 points higher than what he currently brings to the plate, demonstrating that he has become more of a complete hitter. 
    Additionally, the Orioles' first baseman has found success in large part because of increased plate discipline, which is leading to better contact. During his first three seasons (2018-20), O’Hearn walked about 12 percent of the time, but the strikeout rate was around 27 percent. Last season, O’Hearn finished in the top 7 percent of players in strikeout rate, only going down on strikes 14 percent of his plate appearances. However, he settled for much softer contact, with a career-low 40.1 percent hard hit rate. This season, the 31-year-old ranks second for his career in HardHit% (48.4), K% (16.4), and BB% (12.3%), resulting in a career-high 139 wRC+.
    Further, O’Hearn adds an element defensively that neither Rhys Hoskins nor Andrew Vaughn brings to a sure-handed infield. While Hoskins has made improvements defensively in 2025, the Brewers’ first baseman is still an average defender at best. O’Hearn ranks in the 93rd percentile with five outs above average and demonstrates positional versatility, starting 17 games in the corner outfield spots for Baltimore this season. 
    Another note on Hoskins to monitor is the strength of his left thumb, impacting the ability to grip the bat once he returns in early to mid-August. For someone who ranks in the 36th percentile in bat speed, the injury may hinder the movement of the bat through the zone. Making a deal for O’Hearn could help Hoskins ease his way back as well. O’Hearn struggles against left-handed pitching, posting a .608 OPS in only 50 at-bats. On the contrary, Hoskins holds a solid .772 OPS with a .432 SLG against southpaws this season in 97 plate appearances. Platooning the pair when Hoskins comes back from injury would provide a balanced approach in the power department for Milwaukee. O’Hearn could also be used as a defensive replacement late in games when Hoskins gets the start.
    The Brewers' ability to manufacture runs in the regular season has been a recipe for success, but Milwaukee has not won a playoff series since 2018. O’Hearn’s power bat could prove to be the addition that the offense needs to make a deep run into October. 
  2. Jackson Gottfreid
    Brett Wichrowski has shown glimpses of what it takes to get to the next level, but he needs to hone in on the accuracy to do so. The 22-year-old is the Brewers’ No.13-ranked prospect and in his second season with Double-A Biloxi, posting a career-best 2.45 ERA in 40.1 innings since making his season debut on May 4. According to a scouting report on Wichrowski, the 2023 13th-round selection out of Bryant University features a mid-90s fastball, mid-upper 80s slider, a mid-80s sweeper, and changeup. The sweeper is Wichrowski’s best pitch, and he uses it most frequently against right-handed hitters. Ultimately, the issue is the walks. In 74.1 innings with Biloxi in 2024, Wichrowski gave up 36 walks for an 11.1% BB%. Although, Wichrowski lowered his ERA from 4.12 a season ago to 2.45, the 6-foot-2 right-hander is still allowing free passes at the same rate in both 2024 and 2025. 
    However, Wichrowski’s start on June 27 was the best of the season with a final line of 6IP, 2H, 0R, 1BB, 6K. Wichrowski efficiently moved through the Columbus Clingstones order, facing only three, 3-ball counts, and did not allow a walk until the second-to-last batter of the outing. Plus, he showed some athleticism in the field with this play. 
    Wichrowski looks more in a groove as the Shuckers approach the month of July in the coming days. In May, Wichrowski gave up only five runs in 18.1 innings of work while striking out 16. The major blemish on the line was the 12 walks during the month. Wichrowski held an identical 2.45 ERA in June, giving Biloxi 22 innings over five starts. The noticeable difference, only six walks and no more than two in any of those outings. 
    Wichrowski’s next appearance on the mound will likely come against the Pensacola Blue Wahoos in Florida on July 3. In a May 10 start against Pensacola, Wichrowski allowed one run on four hits and did not surrender a free pass. 
    If Wichrowski can build off his last start and show consistency in the month of July, there will be an opportunity for him in Nashville, with his sights on the big leagues in 2026.
  3. Jackson Gottfreid
    In Quinn Priester’s previous 25 starts in the MLB, the 2019 first-round pick had never recorded an out in 7th inning. That changed on Saturday, when Priester tallied seven shutout innings against the Colorado Rockies, capping off both the best start of his career and the best month as a big league pitcher. Priester allowed only one hit while striking out 11 hitters in the outing. 
    The Brewers own a league-leading 26-11 record since May 18, in large part due to the team’s pitching staff, especially the starting rotation. Starters hold a 2.92 ERA, ranking first in all of baseball. The staff is simply not allowing extra base hits, leading the league with a .346 slugging percentage allowed. Additionally, the Brewers rank fourth with a .292 wOBA allowed during the 37-game stretch. 
    Diving into the numbers, Priester is a substantial reason why the Brewers have been winning consistently over the last month. In June, Priester had a 1.98 ERA over 27.1 innings. Further, Priester put together 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings, over three punch-outs higher than his next-best stretch in March and April when the ratio was 6.4. Priester’s strikeout-to-walk ratio was a blistering 5.80 in the month, which would put him in the top-5 of all pitchers if this performance were sustained through the entire season. 
    On Saturday, Priester kept the Rockies off balance with almost an identical usage of sinkers and cutters. Of his 95 pitches, 30.5% were sinkers while 29.5% were cutters, the third-highest percentage of cutters used this season. While allowing a HardHit% of only 33%, along with 20 whiffs, Priester induced an average exit velocity of 78.9 mph through the 25 batters faced. Take away Jordan Beck’s bunt where Priester made the play, diving off the mound, and the exit velocity allowed is 81.5 mph, over eight miles per hour less than his season average of 87.2. 

    Priester’s ability to fill up the upper quadrant of the zone with cutters while also working the pitch to the outer-half of the plate to righties and inside to lefties kept Colorado off balance. 
    Another start that featured a high usage of cutters for Priester was on June 10 against the Atlanta Braves. Priester’s final line was 6IP 7H 1ER 0BB 7K. Of the 30 cutters Priester threw, only one was hard hit. Against a tougher Braves lineup, Priester worked up with the cutter, intentionally moving above the zone. While only getting five swings and misses on the pitch in the outing, Priester recorded two strikeouts, and eight of the 16 strikes were fouled off, demonstrating the Braves’ inability to square up the pitch.

    The cutter has been the difference maker for Priester this season, as the 24-year-old had not thrown the pitch in his first two big league seasons with the Pirates and Red Sox. It will be increasingly important to maintain success in the rotation for Priester as the playoff race heats up for Milwaukee, and the cutter will play a large part. 
  4. Jackson Gottfreid
    The Brewers slugger, Rowdy Tellez, finds his stay on the injured list longer than expected. A fracture to his left ring finger which required twelve stitches after colliding with the wall while shagging balls during batting practice before Saturday’s contest in Cincinnati. Tellez was conditioning to get back onto the field, reports Brewers beat writer Adam McCalvy. Prior to the unusual situation, Tellez was supposed to be activated off the IL on Tuesday before the Crew starts a three-game set in Philadelphia before returning to American Family Field to face the Atlanta Braves in the upcoming weekend. Tellez, who was placed on the 10-day IL on July 5th with right elbow inflammation looked to use the All-Star break as a reset button going into the second half of the season. Unfortunately, the fractured finger has derailed the comeback for at least four more weeks. 
    After a career year in 2022, where he hit 35 homers and tallied 89 RBIs along with a .461 slugging percentage, the 1st baseman has found himself in a slump seemingly for the entire season up to this point. In 79 games, Tellez has a .388 slugging percentage with 12 homers and 36 RBIs. The last thirty games for Tellez haven’t been kind to him either posting just a .206 slugging percentage and 0 homers in that span. According to Baseball Reference, Tellez possesses a substandard 82 OPS+ this season in comparison to his 114 OPS + in 2022. The MLB average OPS + is 100. After analyzing the slugger’s numbers within MLB’s Baseball Savant, it is apparent that Tellez is not hitting the ball as hard as he was a year ago. In 2022, Tellez had a 46% hard-hit percentage which was the second-highest in his career. This season that number has dropped to 38.5% which marks a career low. Tellez is also being less aggressive early in the count. His first pitch swing % is down to 12.5% while his career average in that category is 24.5%. He is doing less damage early in the count compared to the rest of his career, especially on fastballs. Tellez is swinging at 12.3% less first-pitch fastballs in 2023 and when he does swing his whiff % is 14 points higher than a season ago. 
    The Brewers would love Tellez to become the kind of player he was during the 2021/2022 campaigns. According to ESPN, Milwaukee ranks 25th in team OPS and 26th in team slugging percentage across Major League Baseball this season. Having a thump in the middle of the lineup could carry the Crew to their fifth playoff appearance in six seasons. As for now, Brewers fans will have to wait and see regarding Tellez’s health and the impact he has on the team for the upcoming playoff push as we move past the mid-summer classic toward the home stretch. 
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