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Ryan O’Hearn is the impact bat the Brewers need to elevate the offense


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As the trade deadline approaches on July 31, the Milwaukee Brewers currently sit one game back of the Chicago Cubs for first place in the division with a 55-40 record. While Milwaukee ranks 7th in the league in runs per game with 4.73, the Brewers have hit 91 home runs, ranking 23rd in baseball. For a team that has the pitching to make a push towards the playoffs, the offense must continue to pull its weight. The Brewers have been an offensive anomaly this season, holding a league-average OPS+ of 100, ranking 18th in wOBA at .311 and 22nd in the MLB with a .383 SLG. Of the six teams ahead of Milwaukee in runs per game, the next-closest team for total home runs hit is the Boston Red Sox, and they have slugged 30 more home runs than the Crew. While the Brewers have seemingly perfected their brand of baseball, stealing bases, making contact, and moving runners over, the offense can take the next step by adding more power. In fact, powerful lineups become even more important once the postseason begins because it is more difficult to string hits together against better pitching staffs. This analysis details the importance of hitting home runs in the postseason. 

While Andrew Vaughn has been successful in his five games for the Brewers after coming over in a trade on June 13 with the White Sox, driving in 10 runs in 14 at-bats, the production is not sustainable. This season, Vaughn has a 63 wRC+ and a 66 OPS+ while possessing a mark around the league average in his previous two seasons with the White Sox. 

The player who can elevate this Brewers' offense for the most important stretch of the season is Baltimore Orioles first baseman Ryan O’Hearn. The Orioles are almost certainly going to be sellers at the deadline, posting a 43-51 record thus far after back-to-back playoff appearances in 2023 and 2024. O’Hearn stands at 6’2, 220lbs and earned his first all-star selection this year since making his MLB debut in 2018 with the Kansas City Royals. The left-handed hitter holds a .288/.385/.461 line with 11 home runs. If inserted into the Brewers' lineup, O’Hearn would currently rank fourth on the team in long balls. O’Hearn has never hit more than 15 homers in a season, but is currently on pace to hit over 20 this year. 

O’Hearn’s quality of contact has improved over the course of his MLB career. The former 2014 draft pick went from the bottom 10 percentiles in wOBA in 2019 and 2020 to inside the top 10% this season at .369, marking the second-highest point in his career. Importantly, over 170 plate appearances in 2018, O’Hearn compiled a wOBA of .398, but his xwOBA was 53 points lower, showing the quality of contact was not on par with the positive results. This season, however, O’Hearn’s xwOBA is 10 points higher than what he currently brings to the plate, demonstrating that he has become more of a complete hitter. 

Additionally, the Orioles' first baseman has found success in large part because of increased plate discipline, which is leading to better contact. During his first three seasons (2018-20), O’Hearn walked about 12 percent of the time, but the strikeout rate was around 27 percent. Last season, O’Hearn finished in the top 7 percent of players in strikeout rate, only going down on strikes 14 percent of his plate appearances. However, he settled for much softer contact, with a career-low 40.1 percent hard hit rate. This season, the 31-year-old ranks second for his career in HardHit% (48.4), K% (16.4), and BB% (12.3%), resulting in a career-high 139 wRC+.

Further, O’Hearn adds an element defensively that neither Rhys Hoskins nor Andrew Vaughn brings to a sure-handed infield. While Hoskins has made improvements defensively in 2025, the Brewers’ first baseman is still an average defender at best. O’Hearn ranks in the 93rd percentile with five outs above average and demonstrates positional versatility, starting 17 games in the corner outfield spots for Baltimore this season. 

Another note on Hoskins to monitor is the strength of his left thumb, impacting the ability to grip the bat once he returns in early to mid-August. For someone who ranks in the 36th percentile in bat speed, the injury may hinder the movement of the bat through the zone. Making a deal for O’Hearn could help Hoskins ease his way back as well. O’Hearn struggles against left-handed pitching, posting a .608 OPS in only 50 at-bats. On the contrary, Hoskins holds a solid .772 OPS with a .432 SLG against southpaws this season in 97 plate appearances. Platooning the pair when Hoskins comes back from injury would provide a balanced approach in the power department for Milwaukee. O’Hearn could also be used as a defensive replacement late in games when Hoskins gets the start.

The Brewers' ability to manufacture runs in the regular season has been a recipe for success, but Milwaukee has not won a playoff series since 2018. O’Hearn’s power bat could prove to be the addition that the offense needs to make a deep run into October. 

2 Comments


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CheezWizHed

Posted

He sounds like a direct upgrade for Bauer - even to the point of playing the OF (but can he pitch?). Might be a "buy high" candidate given his All Star status.  

He would need to be a platoon player has he has some pretty stark splits.  Thus he and Vaughn could fit together without much issue.  Or with Hoskins when he returns.  

He also has a huge results change going from KC (83 OPS+ in 5 seasons) to Baltimore (126 OPS+ in 3 seasons). Makes me wonder how a team change might impact him? 

Snoebird

Posted

O'Hearn has an .895 OPS with two homers in 10 games at American Family Field, an improvement over his stats at Kauffman Stadium and Camden Yards, and he has an expiring contract worth $8 million this year. Given the Brewers' rugged schedule to start the second half, the sooner they acquire him, the better. It would help counter the loss of Frelick's left-handed bat for any length of time and give the team an emotional lift. 

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