And That
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Everything posted by And That
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I did some math on Twitter, and came to the conclusion that... the trade is probably fine. Depends both on whether Dubon's value had peaked at a lower value than we thought, and what the Brewers think of Ray Black. If Dubon was shopped on the open market and was not valued at anything over a 45 OFP by other teams, the Brewers are taking a risk that Ray Black will be worth at least 1 WAR before he hits arbitration. That's not a huge risk. OTOH, if the Brewers sold low on Dubon to get Black, the Brewers must really think they can unlock Black. At a 50 OFP For Dubon, Black would have to either be worth 2.5 WAR before arbitration (extraordinarily unlikely), or the Brewers plan on holding onto him into arbitration (more than a few years). We'll probably never know if they sold lower than necessary on Dubon, though, and there is some evidence to suggest that a 45 OFP was the proper valuation.
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Hey, but Lohse is no longer on the books. -
Braun isn’t being paid $20 million this year. It’s $15 million. Salary is $19 million but $4 million of that is deferred.
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Hipster. Resident.
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Really late to the party, but I like the deal for the Brewers. In a way, it hedges their risk by turning three guys that might turn into Yelich, into Yelich. It's highly likely that 1 or 2 of the Brinson/Diaz/Harrison group don't amount to anything at the MLB level, and the odds of two of them turning into assets as productive as Yelich I'd have to think are pretty long. Not saying all three of them couldn't make a huge impact at the big league level, but the odds are against it. As for Yamamoto, I've generally been kind of "meh" on him and in the end, I wouldn't consider him a huge loss with all the other similar pitching depth the Brewers have in the minor leagues (Ponce/Jankins/Perrin/Derby/Williams/Brown/Webb/Herrera/etc). Though he did seem like a great kid, and I truly wish him nothing but the best when he's not pitching against Brewers.
