RobertR

I don't think there's a doubt that Gagne will get offered a major league deal. I just doubt that any other offer will be as high as what he's likely to get in arbitration. And that extra money may be better spent elsewhere. Robert

I don't see the upside to offering Gagne arbitration. You're not going to get draft picks out of it, as no team is going to sign Gagne to a fair market offer and give up a pick for someone with as many questions as Gagne has. And you already probably have to commit a fair share of money early in the free agency process when that salary flexibility may be better used later on. I'll take the flexibility since there are other areas that the team needs to address first, third base and starting pitching being the big ones. Unless Sheets is hurt, you offer him arby. No question. It's overthinking things if you do otherwise. There's no real downside to a healthy Ben Sheets on a one year deal. Shouse I'm iffy on. He's probably looking at $3 to $4 million on a one year deal. That's a little more than he's worth, IMO, butI think some team, probably the Mets, would be willing to go 2 years on him to shore up a suspect bullpen. Sabathia, of course, is a no brainer. 5 years is a starting point. Robert

We had our annual Halloween horror film party the other night. I pulled out the big guns this year. Halloween (1978) Jamie Lee Curtis really holds this movie together. She's down to earth, likable, and believable as she encounters evil and fights back. Her friends come off as types while she comes off as something above the typical horror movie girl. The fact that her mother was the victim in one of the most famous scenes in film history adds to the film. Halloween has started to age in a few respects. The dialogue overuses the word "totally" and isn't very memorable, outside of what Donald Pleasance can deliver. And the sheriff seems to be a fairly useless character. But the film is a perfect example of camera control and atmosphere overcoming some shakey performances. It plays as one part campfire story, crazed killer escapes from asylum and comes home again to kill, and one part supernatural tale, it's the boogeyman. Still works for me. The Thing (1982) Holds up stronger over time for me. The practical effects and props playing a big part in it. What strikes me on this viewing is that it's probably impossible to figure out who is the thing at what time and what is he up to. One gets the feeling that they were making it up as they were going along. A character going outside, finding planted incriminating evidence for a false trail, and the next thing you know the character is dead and burned with no solid explanation. Sherlock Holmes couldn't fit this puzzle together. And that's o.k. for this particular story. The whole point is about being unsure about what's going on, who is who, and you can't be sure if you can trust anyone. John Carpenter manages to keep the audience guessing by not playing fair and that puts the audience in the same shoes as the characters. Robert

http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=t&chs=440x220&chtm=usa&chf=bg,s,336699&chco=cc0000&chd=s:99999999999999999&chld=WIMIMNNYCAFLILMAWATXHIGATNSDIAMOIN 17 States (34%). But I have Hawaii. I've also visited one US territory, Puerto Rico. Robert

Considering that you really can't count on Edmonds for much more than 110 games, I think you can call him an "inferior hitter" to Cameron. Or perhaps, "less productive" when you account for projected playing time. And that's assuming a) Edmonds doesn't retire, b) Edmonds has much left at age 39, and c) the Brewers could beat out everyone else for him in the first place. Edmonds looked done in 2007 and the first part of this year, so there are definite warning signs. Right now I think Lorenzo Cain in the centerfielder of the future for the Brewers, but he's probably not ready until 2010. Having a guy on a one year contract works well for the Brewers in that respect and not having to risk the unknown at a position with very few attractive players is probably a wise strategic choice. I think the only real problem with the Brewers offense in September was the team was out of gas (Kendall specifically) and/or hurting (Braun, Branyan, Kapler, Hart?). The Brewers have basically been productive for the last 2 years and teams don't suddenly get "figured out" completely. Robert

Who would have been playing CF or 3B last year if not for the signing of Cameron? Gwynn? Gross? Compared to the alternatives, there probably would be a lot of people that would have been happy with signing Cameron. Robert

I don't think it's at all out of the realm of possibility that the Brewers trade someone like Hart or Weeks and bring in a lefty as a replacement. Then again, the Brewers don't have to make major changes to have an above average offense in 2009. Fix third base and get some internal improvement. This was a playoff team after all. It would be nice to balance the lineup more, but it's not like they had a bad offense. What they would like to do ideally and what they actually can do are often different things. Robert

I think if you're going to argue for an upgrade, the more likely scenario is moving Weeks to CF and bringing in a lefty with a good glove at 2B. Orlando Hudson is probably the only one that fits the bill as a switch hitter, but his career line of .282/.346/.433 and reputation as a Gold Glove worthy second baseman certainly would be arguable if you were willing to give up a Draft Pick and give up on Weeks at 2B. I've brought up Robinson Cano before, but a 25 year old, left handed, second baseman with a career .303/.335/.468 line in 2218 ABs, certainly could bounce back after an off year. I wish he walked more, but I'd take a chance on the idea that one bad year for a young ballplayer isn't the end of the world. Robert

Fine, here are the studies which 1) show that the VWL is significantly easier than AAA and 2) any improvement projected based on the player playing really well in Winter Ball is likely to be very minor. http://www.baseballprospe...rticle.php?articleid=2528 http://www.baseballprospe...rticle.php?articleid=2541 Probably most damning, the correlation between Winter Ball performance and the following year of MLB performance is 0.33. That's without mentioning sample size issues. Again, VWL stats mean very little. Robert

Hitting in the VWL has no correlation with hitting in MLB. Gwynn didn't hit in MLB this year. He hit poorly in AAA too. If Gwynn wanted to earn a major league job, he had plenty of opportunities to win a job in the states this year. Robert

What FA CFer is going to be a "bargain"? Almost all of the FA CFers are capable of being below replacement level or are injury risks. (Heck, I really don't think you should count Bloomquist or Hairston as CFers.) The Brewers probably have to sign one regardless, my guess is Kotsay. Also, what's strange about not wanting to hand a starting job of a contending team to a player with absolutely no power, a major league line of .248/.300/.298, a 2008 AAA line of .275/.328/.331, and a 2009 ZIPS projection of .257/.313/.314? (Hernan Iribarren's ZIPS projection is .254/.298/.318 BTW.) If you have any belief at all in statistical projection, those are huge red flags. It's not that Gwynn doesn't hit home runs that's the problem, it's that he's unlikely to hit at all that's the problem. Robert

FWIW, it's worth bringing up the CF free agent crop again. Rocco Baldelli (27) Willie Bloomquist (31) Jim Edmonds (39) Jerry Hairston Jr. (33) Gabe Kapler (33) Mark Kotsay (33) Corey Patterson (29) Scott Podsednik (33) Other than Baldelli, who has health concerns, is there anyone that you'd want to roll the dice on as a full time starter? Hairston is more of a guy that can play CF when required than a full time CFer and last year was very out of context with the rest of his career. Even then, he didn't stay healthy. Podsednik, Patterson, Kotsay, and Edmonds are the only lefties. Simply put, there is no lefty available via free agency that represents a likely upgrade for 2009 in CF. Really, the only potential lefty upgrade is Edmonds, but banking on a 40 year old is playing with fire. Robert

Cameron is certainly tradeable if that's what it comes down to. And, although people make a lot out of it, it's not like the Brewers offense was bad all year. Especially considering they had an absolute sinkhole at third base. The struggles in September magnified the issues with the offense, but fix third base and get some internal improvement and the Brewers could have a top 4 offense in the NL with only minor moves. They could get some defensive improvement too out of third. Also, I think that Weeks still has more value than people think. He's young and certainly has flashes of being a very good player. If he's out on the market, there will be multiple teams that will be more than willing to roll the dice that he'll put things together and live up to his potential. Robert

We had one on our roster last year making $800K by the name of Gabe Kapler. Certainly not as good defensively, but much more rounded offensively.And Kapler hasn't demonstrated he can stay healthy for a full year. He really hasn't been a full time player since 2001. Durability matters. I'd rather not see the Brewers rely on Gwynn or whomever else they have to resort to if Kapler gets injured again. Not to mention that he's a free agent. Heck, there's good reason to think Kapler will regress and 2008 is not what you can expect going forward. Except for 2008, the last time he was even league average offensively was 2001. He's depth, not a starter. Robert

The Dead Zone. It occurs to me, the original Halloween is surprisingly non-gory. Robert

I don't have too much to complain about with Counsell, but he's clearly on the decline and even his still decent OBP has to be weighed against a complete lack of power and declining usefulness as a middle infielder. Hall and Alcides Escobar probably offer just as much at this stage, if not considerably more. And, if the Brewers aren't satisfied with that, versatile utility infielders without much of a bat, aren't all that rare. Robert

Of course, this also presumes that the Brewers had any good options at the end of the year with Kapler hurt, Branyan hurt, Gross traded, Gwynn showing no signs of being a productive corner outfielder, and Brad Nelson being very unproven. It's fully possible that Corey Hart was the Brewers best option in September despite the struggles. Robert

I see a tremendous overreaction to the end of the World Series being delayed by a whole 48 hours. It was nothing but bad luck, as the series would have gone off without a hitch in most of the playoff teams' cities. Heck, it would have gone off without a problem if the NL had won the All Star game. Next the media will be crying about games in California because an earthquake once delayed the World Series a couple of days. There's nothing wrong with the World Series as it stands. Weather causes problems once or twice a decade, blows through, and the games get played in front of packed stadiums of enthusiastic fans. Robert

I'm not sure Melvin's right about the idea that it's easier to buy low on pitching during the offseason. I suspect it's a cyclical thing and dependent on what's out there on the free agent market. It certainly looks like a weak market this year, so making a trade, as long as it doesn't open up a hole that needs to be filled with a free agent, is probably a solid option. However, I suspect that the Brewers are going to be a lot less busy than people suspect. Maybe one major trade to acquire someone to play third, possibly a dump of Hall, and then some middle relievers and starter depth late in the free agent period. Robert

I passed judgement at Dean Taylor at his opening press conference with his "I'm not a talent evaluator" comment. If you can't come off well at your opening press conference, it's hard to have any faith. Robert

The first movies that occur to me when reading your post are The Haunting (the 1960s version not the CGI laden remake) and Val Lewton films like Cat People (1942 not the remake) and I Walked With a Zombie. Also, Night of the Demon/Curse of the Demon (which I believe is on TCM tomorrow). Haven't seen them myself, but I've heard good things about The Innocents and Changeling (with George C. Scott not Angelina Jolie). Robert

I wouldn't want Jackson as a centerpiece of a deal, but he certainly has some value, albeit I think he was helped out by his defense this year. That said, he's still fairly young, has a plus arm, and has had success at the major league level in a tough division. You'd definitely want a lot more talent than him, though, maybe someone like Desmond Jennings or another top prospect. Robert

I'd suggest Tampa might be a team with the wherewithal to make a good match with the Brewers. Cliff Floyd, Johnny Gomes, and Eric Hinske were the primary DH's on that team this year after all. They probably could spare someone like Edwin Jackson from the major league roster and certainly have enough talent in the minor league system to make a deal feasible. Toronto might also want to try something bold. When do the Twins open up their new stadium? Robert

The lousy FA class is the principle reason why I think it's not a good idea to decline the option. Cameron's arguably worth the contract. At this point, I don't see how you can get better value with that money, particularly since you'll likely have to sign anyone decent to a multi-year deal, whether at P, 2B, or 3B. To me it's a no brainer, pick up the option, try to do something about 3B, add some depth. Heck, it's not like Cameron was even the biggest offender in the OBP issues surrounding the team. You're likely to get, at best, marginal improvement there. Robert

The thing we're all waiting for is for the Brewers to make their decision on Cameron's option. That'll end a good deal of the debate. Melvin's right on the nature of the problem and where the solution lies. What remains to be seen is simply how they'll choose to address the problem -- and eventually something's going to have to give in order to do so. I'm not so sure that the Brewers' decision will clear up all that much. Cameron's pretty clearly still a decent value at his current contract price and might be attractive trade bait even if the Brewers want to explore other options. Heck, one of the most attractive things about Cameron is that there's only one year left on his deal while he'd certainly be seeking a multi-year deal on the free agent market. And the free agent market this year is reportedly weak. Holding on to Cameron, even if only temporarily, is probably the smartest choice. Heck, if the Brewers tried to extract value for Johnny Estrada and Claudio Vargas, why wouldn't they try to get something in return for a good player? Robert