RobertR

Obermueller's been o.k. against the Giants without Bonds in the starting lineup. He's been rocked in his other two appearances and has a subpar K/9 rate. It's just not true to call the starting rotation beyond Sheets, Davis and, maybe Capuano although his WHIP is scary, as anything more than awful. And that includes Franklin in the evaluation. Robert

The Brewers averaged 28,000 for a weekend series with Arizona last September. I'd have to think it will be less than that for a weekday series in April. I'd be surprised if the average is much over 21,000. Robert

With a setup like that, how could I resist? Probably the best article I ever wrote as well. Robert

I've been looking at the splits for opposing batters to examine the "benefit" from the lefty starter, and to this point I'm underwhelmed. Someone should write an article about that. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Robert

I'm not too worried about Davis, no matter what happens tonight. The heavily right-handed Houston lineup is one of the worst matchups for Davis in the NL. And the Cubs are probably just behind them. Realistically, he probably should struggle with the Astros tonight. Robert

Good job by Yost as well. Sheets can take nothing but positives from this outing and Yost recognized it and removed him at the proper time. Robert

My mistake. Nice game too. Hall's got to get a start this weekend though. Robert

It's official now. Adrian Hernandez and Ben Ford are going to have to show something soon. I'm guessing Ginter gets his first start of the season tomorrow and Hall gets a start Sunday. Robert

Well that's a reality check. Not much to say except that the pitching staff really isn't that deep and still has a lot of question marks. I guess that's not really news. Robert

I'm more concerned with Hall's playing time than Moeller's. Moeller will get plenty of starts as it is. And I still don't know what role Yost was expecting Durrington to play on the team. Designated towel waver? Robert

I'm glad the Brewers didn't get suckered into one of LaRussa's petty little beanball wars. I'll let Dusty and Tony go play their "who's got bigger cojones" games and make themselves look foolish. BTW, when was the last time Bobby Cox got into one of those foolish episodes? And all he's done is win for the last 13 years. Robert

Kiko Calero is probably already on his way to St. Louis to help bail out the bullpen. I think LaRussa sometimes believes his own hype about how he can mix and match players to maximize tactical effectiveness and has forgotten that it helps to have good players on the bench and in the bullpen to begin with. Things like So Taguchi leading off makes me think that LaRussa isn't long for his job if the Cardinals don't get things straightened out in a hurry. Robert

I never said ZR is perfect, only that I prefer it to F%. There's a lot going on that's not accounted for in the statistic. Interaction with teammates, park conditions, the handedness of pitchers, etc. In the case of Helms vs. Rolen, I'd suggest that the height of the infield grass, the quality of the shortstop next to them, Renteria vs. Clayton, and the quality of the first baseman receiving throws, Sexson vs. Martinez, all played a role. In many ways, I prefer the defensive efficiency metric for teams as an excellent tool. But all of the metrics have their limits. That doesn't mean they're useless, only that you have to account for thier limitations. Robert

Igor explained RF well enough, although they use defensive innings / 9 as the divisor. And those numbers can be skewed by the number of chances a player gets. A flyball heavy staff hurts infielders' ratings. A K-heavy staff hurts everybody's ratings. Etc. And, of course, there are park effects to consider. I'm sure having an infield like a hayfield helps. ZR is like Igor said, basically plays made per chances. There are again limits to the accuracy of ZR. Ball's that hit 20 feet up on the Green Monster are technically counted as "in the zone", high walls in general are going to hurt a players rating, and the size of an outfielder's zone can change drastically from park to park. Centerfield in Miller Park isn't the same as centerfield in Pro Player stadium. And more foul territory, like in Oakland, can only help a corner player's rating. And there are limits. ZR doesn't do a good job, IMO, on gauging a player's ability to turn the DP. Or a first baseman's ability to receive the ball. Or a catcher's ability to block balls in the dirt and throw out runners. And they've periodically changed the zones, which makes career ZR a misleading statistic when comparing it to a specific year. One of the things that I do like about ZR and RF is that they do take the scorekeepers, often faulty, judgement out of the statistic. Wes Helms being a good example. Those plays could have been ruled differently by different scorekeepers, but they're still counted the same in ZR and RF. I generally like using the whole set of F%, RF, and ZR when evaluating a player. I think they're simply more descriptive. They help identify the sure handed statues. Or the error prone players that can make up for it via range and arm strength. And the descriptive nature adds value. Robert

At the very least, it's an example of why I like Zone Rating and Range Factor more than Fielding %. A good defender makes that play and gets credit for it in ZR and RF. I'm not all that down on Helms for not making a couple of plays. I think everyone understands his limits, little range, strong arm, and o.k. hands and that's fine as long as he hits. Robert

I disagree on the Helms call. He had it in his glove, all he had to do was pull it out and throw it to first. And that play's only difficult for a third baseman without much range. Rolen or Chavez or Cirillo make that play look easy. Robert

Nice win by the Brewers. The only thing to really complain about was Helms' glove work. And the scoring. There's been talk for a couple of years now of standardizing the scoring instead of having a club employee who's a buddy of the players do it and I think everyone who's up in arms over the sanctity of the record book should at least turn a little attention in the direction of improving the scorers. Robert

Yeah, that's a misstatement on my part. Miller Park isn't sealed so the inside temperature can only be controlled to an extent. Although having been at some April games that were chilly, I sometimes think that the 20 degrees represents theoretical design more than actual conditions. Still better than being outside. I'm not complaining about Miller Park, just pointing out that it has its limits. Robert

I don't disagree that the Brewers could start the season at home. OTOH, Miller Park isn't heated and teams in the past have complained, although it's better than playing outside. Still, other than Cincinatti, who probably is stronger before they get hit with injuries, and Pittsburgh coming to Miller Park, what series is easy for the Brewers? And, they still have basically the same schedule as everyone else in the division, so worrying about the schedule strikes me as a minor issue. Really, it gets a lot easier in May when the Brewers should be expecting larger crowds. Robert

Yeah it is a tough schedule. OTOH, in April the Brewers are likely to open on the road in the south and in west and there simply aren't that many bad teams in those areas. A few more games against Pittsburgh and Cincinnatti would help, but considering the talent level and questions surrounding the team, practically every game looks tough. Robert

Just to answer my own question, here's what the last 14 years of Braves first round picks look like. 1990 Chipper Jones (Great pick. #1 overall) 1991 Mike Kelly 1992 Jamie Arnold 1993 No Pick (I think they gave this up for the Maddux signing) 1994 Jacob Shumate 1995 Chad Hutchinson 1996 A.J. Zapp 1997 Troy Cameron 1998 No Pick 1999 No Pick 2000 Adam Wainwright, Scott Thorman 2001 Joshua Burrus 2002 Jeffrey Francoeur 2003 No Pick Given the track record, I think giving up those first rounders for a free agent signing was the best choice. Considering that the Braves still produced plenty of talent from their farm system, it's absolute evidence of why giving up a second round pick for Jose Hernandez was foolish. And why there was more problems with the Brewers scouting and farm system than first round flops. Robert

Someone should post the Braves' first round draft picks over the last 10 years to highlight the importance of later picks and international scouting. I think Williamson is an excellent example of the faulty premise of drafting for need. When he was drafted, the Brewers also had Jeff Cirillo in the system who turned into a fine third baseman. Ironically, third base might have been the position of least need in the entire system. Of course, it's also ironic that Williamson wasn't regarded as much of a reach. Kyle Peterson was just bad scouting. I think it's fair to say that David Krynzel was a bit of a reach. although not a huge one. He still has many of the problems that Sickels mentioned and it looked suspiciously like a "need" pick on draft day. There were some complaints that the pick was Chad Green, part II. Of course, there was also some controversy over the Prince Fielder pick as well, proving that you can't please everyone. Although, most of that controversy involved his glove, not his bat. Robert

I'm making it to the Brewers game only. I'll be bringing along a small keg of homemade amber ale to boot. And maybe a small assortment of others. Robert

Is there anyone out there that wants to let Cruz waste another year where he gets maybe 100 or so ABs and might hit .150? He obviously can't help a team now and if he misses another year of full time playing, I think it's even more doubtful that he'll help a team in the future. I think the fact that nobody claimed him on waivers is another indicator that he won't be claimed in Rule 5. Robert

Mark Johnson is an excellent example of why batting average does matter. However, I think it's a fine signing as a minor leaguer. You'd be hard pressed to do much better at catcher. Johnson has a good defensive reputation and will draw a walk. If he hit .250, he'd actually be valuable. Robert