colbyjack

I think it is a big misconception that prep right-handers are the riskiest group of players to take early in the draft. bradyo, I invite you to check out this story I wrote about a year ago in which I broke down all of the players taken in the first round from 1990 to 1999: Draft Assessment: 1990-1999 In that study I determined that high school left-handed pitchers were actually the riskiest players to take, followed by prep shortstops, prep outfielders, prep righties and college lefties. However I also point out that if you decided to use these results to effect your philosophy you're going to miss out on players such as Arod, Jeter, Manny Ramirez and Chipper Jones. But since you have been reluctant to see the team take prep righties, thinking they were the riskiest players to take, it should be pointed out that if you would only take players up the middle of the diamond and prep lefties, you're actually subjecting yourself to a group of players that actually has not produced on average as good of players as prep right-handed pitchers, at least not in the 1990s. In addition, you also would miss out on Will Inman and Yovani Gallardo if you didn't take prep RHPs in the first three rounds (not to mention Fielder, who was covered initially in this thread). I also want to point out that from that story while college players on average graded out higher than high school pitchers, the number of big leaguers (those that in my study received a grade of 6, 7 or 8) was pretty close. Prep players are more likely to burn out in the lower levels, while college players are more likely to enjoy at least a cup of coffee, which is where you get the biggest difference in the grades I handed out. The bottom line is the long-lasting big-leaguers, of which both sides are pretty close. Although I will point out that a player that has at least a cup of coffee at the big-league level has more value than a player that burns out before they see AA. What these studies have told me is that it isn't about not drafting a prep righty, and only drafting college shortstops, etc., it's that it's about taking the RIGHT player, trusting your scouts to evaluate these players on an individual basis. While I'm big on tools, if I were a GM/SD, I would push my scouts to try and determine the likelihood of those tools translating to the big-leagues. For every Cameron Maybin there are 10 Chad Hermansen's, and to Hermansen's credit, he at least made it to the big-leagues for a couple of years, and for all we know at this point in time Maybin may take a similar career path. I have no problem with the team drafting a prep righty, but they need to make sure they take the right one. Of Mike Jones, Mark Rogers and Jeremy Jeffress, none of them were known to command the strike zone particularly well coming out of high school, or at least that wasn't considered a perceived strength when they were drafted in the first round, and that is where I have a problem with them. The mid-90s+ heater is nice, but similar to the notion with blinding speed that you can't steal first base, a 95 mph fastball is pretty useless if it isn't consistently thrown for strikes.

Moore was moved immediately to 3B upon being drafted. He was never viewed as a SS at the professional level. Great left-handed bat, although at the pre-draft workout at Miller Park Fielder's performance was incredible vs. Moore's rather ho-hum one. Moore really had trouble making consistent, hard contact with a wood bat in BP and against some of the talented pitchers that attended (including Dana Eveland, Khalid Ballouli and Edwin Walker). I was pleased to see him turn his career around after the Cubs picked him up, even if it is the Cubs. As noted, he really doesn't have anywhere to play for them, and he deserves a chance. I have heard that the Brewers would have taken Chris Gruler at the seventh spot had the Reds not surprised almost everyone and plucked Gruler with the third overall pick (passing on Scott Kazmir, another reason he fell, because several teams assumed the Reds were going to take him). That's a very good thing for the Brewers, as Gruler's career seemed to be shorter than Mark Rogers. So, if you're still angry about not taking Kazmir, or how the team missed out on Homer Bailey in 2005, remember that all teams have some pretty significant draft day blunders they can point to. Can you imagine the Reds pitching staff if they had Kazmir, Arroyo and Harang with Bailey knocking at the door?

bradyo, I will agree that ideally I would take the five-tool talent that projects to be a perennial All-Star in centerfield. Maybin has a way to go to achieve that status of course, and if the Brewers had him right now instead of Braun, I would be curious how many people would be pining to have a bat like Braun's so close to contributing. While I have been following the draft since the late 80s, I really started to pay real close attention in 2000. For the fun of second guessing, here are my faves on draft day from each year since then: 2000: Rocco Baldelli (he didn't fall that far), Aaron Heilman (no one thought Xavier Nady would fall to the team's pick). 2001: My obsession with Casey Kotchman is well documented (never thought he would fall that far though), and I really liked Jeremy Sowers coming out of high school. 2002: Scott Moore. I really wanted Adam Loewen to fall, and I also liked Francoeur a lot, even though I knew the team wouldn't select him. 2003: This was a no-brainer between Young and Weeks, basicallly whoever the D-Rays didn't take, although I was one of many that hoped the Orioles wouldn't sign Loewen. 2004: Sowers, again, followed by Humber (didn't think he would fall though), Thomas Diamond and Chris Nelson. 2005: Maybin, but more than any other year I didn't really care who the Brewers took because they really couldn't go wrong. I really wanted Zimmerman to fall to the 5th pick. 2006: Travis Snider, another guy known for his bat (who didn't fall to the Brewers), and David Huff. It was harder to get a read on last year's draft since the team was picking in the middle of the round for the first time in I can't remember how long. I have layed some hints about this year's draft, but obviously a lot needs to happen before we know who the Brewers are seriously considering for the 7th overall pick.

It's kind of hard to complain too much about Jack Zduriencik. No scouting director is perfect, as few picks are perfect as well. However, just look at the current team and how many players that project to be on the roster are his responsibility. By the end of the year, the entire infield may be filled with players he drafted (Braun, Hardy, Weeks, Fielder) and Corey Hart adds another in the OF. The Brewers haven't been very good at developing pitching, and fortunately Doug Melvin has scored a couple of gems via trades and waiver wire pickups. Here's my interview from several years ago with Jack Zduriencik just for a little perspective: www.brewerfan.net/ViewArt...icleId=126 From that story: When Zduriencik told me the part about Fielder being the best hitter in the country it really stood out to me. He wasn't saying "he was the best hitter that we could afford." I too liked Jeff Francoeur, but he's not a pure hitter, he doesn't work the count and he certainly doesn't know how to draw a walk. You're right, Francoeur's two-sport commitment scared a lot of teams off, not just the Brewers, otherwise there would be no way he fell to the 20s. And I'm sorry, tools are great, but I'll draft a bat before I draft any other tool, and the Fielder pick taught me that more than any other individual selection. From the '02 draft remembering how players were thought about then vs. now, I think the only player that you can really complain about the team passing on is Scott Kazmir, who fell for financial reasons just like Francoeur did. It was one thing to complain about the Fielder pick then, but now it seems like a waste of time. And a minor note, Franceour's two-sport commitment was to Clemson, not GT. Going back to the original point, I don't know how you can argue too much against Braun. The guy looks as though he's going to be one heck of a slugger, as Blazer noted, several years before Maybin will reach the big-leagues. I agree with both of your assessments that Maybin could be a pretty special player, and without a doubt 99% of the people at Brewerfan.net wanted Maybin to be the team's pick back in 2005. I don't think people were disappointed that Maybin wasn't the pick because everyone seemed to know that the Brewers really couldn't have gone wrong in the 2005 draft. It really came down to Maybin, Braun and Tulowitzki, and I think I might argue more for Tulo than Maybin.

I forgot to mention above that Florida 1B Matt LaPorta returned to the Gators' lineup on Friday, serving as the DH, and ended the weekend playing first. So much for his ankle injury possibly holding him out for a few weeks. With LaPorta's return, I thought it may be time to look at some of the cumulative numbers of some of the more interesting draft-eligible hitters, starting with LaPorta: Matt LaPorta .429/.600/.786, 42 AB, 3 2B, 4 HR, 9:1 BB:K ratio He still only 1 K, plus he has been hit 9 times already...teams don't want to pitch to him. Matt Wieters .350/.444/.583, 60 AB, 5 2B, 3 HR, 11:11 BB:K ratio Wieters raised his batting average by about 100 points over the past week. Not a terribly hard thing to do with only 60 ABs, but still good to see. Beau Mills .455/.519/.909, 44 AB, 5 2B, 5 HR, 4:3 BB:K ratio Mills seems to be getting plenty of pitches to hit in the NAIAA for national powerhouse Lewis-Clark State. Sean Doolittle .327/.485/.551, 49 AB, 5 2B, 2 HR, 16:5 BB:K 4-0 on the mound, and one of the most patient hitters in all of college baseball. Josh Donaldson .393/.521/.857, 56 AB, 8 2B, 6 HR, 14:5 BB:K Auburn catcher is having a huge season so far for the surging Tigers. Mike Bianucci .415/.536/.792, 53 AB, 3 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 13:4 BB:K Toolsy OF Bianucci along with Donaldson give the Tigers one of the better 1-2 punches in all of college baseball. Mitch Canham .435/.585/.587, 46 AB, 4 2B, 1 HR, 14:4 BB:K Canham's defense reportedly has improved big-time this year, as his bat has always been good. Matt Mangini .426/.508/.741, 54 AB, 6 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 9:12 BB:K Another good start for NC State transfer, 3B Matt Mangini. Corey Brown .365/.507/.788, 52 AB, 4 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR< 12:14 BB:K As much as I want to like this powerful Oklahoma State duo, they strike out a lot more than you would like to see. Kellen Kulbacki .438/.513/.813, 32 AB, 3 2B, 3 HR, 6:5 BB:K Kulbacki started extremely hot, and will need to stay big this season to keep his doubters away. Todd Frazier .375/.479/.775, 40 AB, 1 2B, 5 HR, 7:9 BB:K A true 3TO candidate from the college level with awesome power potential and awesome strikeout potential. Joe Savery will be added when he gets his average over .300. He's hitting .290 right now, and his BA is on the rise.

I think Inman is 6'1" like Prince is 6'0".

I don't think anyone thought that either Ford or Brantley would repeat WV. While they both have plenty to work on, I think it's clear the team feels Gillespie and Errecart are in a position to move more quickly. Let's hope they move quick enough to allow Ford and Brantley to get bumped up, as they're getting somewhat hosed by repeating low-A. At least the rest of the WV lineup will have two guys consistently on base at the top of that order. A lineup consisting of Fermaint, Cain, Gillespie, Errecart, Gamel and even Escobar is going to score some runs this year, even in the FSL, and should be a lot of fun to follow. I agree Jim, interesting to see Mike Ramlow's name mentioned among the others.

Thanks for sharing that Rob. This comment applies well to the Inman conversation: That's the one big thing that bugs me about Inman, is that people say his stuff is average or below average, when it really isn't. Most of the people that write about him seem to be copying and pasting what they read about him other places, and it just gets carried from one place to the next. Because of that there is no other player in the Brewers system that I would like to see for myself than Inman. Another interesting comment: If that is truly their philosophy, which I completely agree with, wouldn't their target be to add players to their system that are best suited to accomplish these things? Two of the team's top picks over the last three years have been high school pitchers whose strengths are their raw stuff and their weaknesses are their ability to command their stuff and the strike zone in general.

To the person that emailed me this morning: First of all, thanks. I tried to reply to your email, but it was returned to me as undeliverable. I've had that problem with umn addresses in the past, so I tried using my work email to send you a message. If you didn't get either, the Gophers doubleheader vs. Arkansas starts today at noon. Given the re-scheduled event due to the weather, I'm not sure if Nick Schmidt is pitching game #1 today or game #2 today (he was scheduled to be the Sunday starter heading into the weekend, so that may mean he will start game #2, but I'm not certain, and neither team website has updated their pitching rotation). RHP Duke Welker is expected the start the other contest, and he's a solid pitching prospect in his own right. Game #2 will start 45 minutes after the end of game #1. EDIT: I just checked my work email, and that message got returned as undeliverable as well. Please give me a shout when you get a chance knowing that I may not be able to respond to you via email. Thanks. If you made it today, you saw a very good performance by Schmidt.

reillymcshance put it pretty well. Inman's height is always going to mean he has to prove himself a little bit more each and every year. We've heard some pretty glowing first-hand reports of Inman, including pogo's in which he was throwing in the mid-90s, but prospect publications are of course looking for the ideal combinations of size and stuff. I'm not into the height thing as much as most, or even the stuff thing, as there are plenty of pitchers in the big-leagues that are very successful despite not having the prototypical profile of a #2, #3 (etc.) pitcher, including several pitchers on the Brewers staff the past several years (Davis, Capuano, Bush). I'm guessing Inman is about the same size as Sheets, and he hasn't lost a thing on his fastball (Oswalt, Harden and Santana are also hard-throwing, shorter pitchers). One reason I'm not fond of the Petit comparison is that Petit also had some concerns about the lack of groundballs he induced. He was an extreme flyball pitcher, and that along with his lack of great stuff led many to believe he wouldn't make the greatest conversion to the big-league level. Inman on the other hand, IIRC, not only gets a tons of Ks but he also does a very good job inducing groundballs. And of course he didn't give up a HR until 100+ innings into his season a year ago.

Thanks TheCrew07 http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

BA's weekend preview: www.baseballamerica.com/t...63461.html David Price 9 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 13 K, 1 BB vs. Xavier This is the start I think most people have been looking for in Price, who has been very good this season, but expectations are high. He is now 3-0 on the year with a 41 to 6 K to BB ratio over 26.2 innings of work. Teammate Pedro Alvarez (pictured below) hit his sixth HR of the season, and now is hitting .462/.541/.981 on the young season. http://graphics.fansonly.com/schools/vand/graphics/auto/highfivebase.jpg Sean Doolittle 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 9 K, 3 BB vs. Delaware Doolittle and the Cavaliers are off to a very nice start so far this season, although they haven't exactly played any national powerhouses yet. Doolittle improves to 4-0 on the season as Virginia is 15-1. Jake Arrieta 6.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R (0 ER), 7 K, 1 BB vs. Vermont Another nice start for Arrieta, who is now 3-1 on the season, and TCU did a nice job by pulling him in a blowout once he reached his 100th pitch. Wes Roemer 6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 10 K, 2 BB vs. Rice Roemer got hit arounda little against a tough Rice ballclub, but he still managed to strike out 10. Those two walks stand out for the usually sharp Roemer. He did throw 118 pitches, which is at least his third game this year tossing around 115 pitches. In a game in which he only went six innings, it seems as though he was laboring more than usual. Ross Detwiler 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 7 K, 3 BB vs. Middle Tennessee Another sharp outing for Detwiler, his second appearance of the season. The picture below gives you a very good idea just how tall, lanky and projectable this y http://www.nmnathletics.com.edgesuite.net/pics30/400/MJ/MJUEWZMXRTYGSUL.20061128192549.jpg James Simmons 5 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 4 K, 2 BB vs. Oklahoma Simmons gets knocked around quite a bit in this one, after being nearly perfect all season leading up to Friday's game. Aaron Poreda 8 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 7 K, 0 BB Poreda allowed only six baserunners over eight innings of work, all via base hits, so it's interesting that four runs scored. Checking the game log, all of the hits came back-to-back, including a two-run home run, leading to those four runs. Saturday... Andrew Brackman 5 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 6 K, 5 BB vs. East Carolina The first bad start of the year for Brackman who has been extremely impressive up until today's game. David Newmann 5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R (1 ER), 6 K, 2 BB vs. Oregon State Beating OSU is no easy task as Newmann continues to succeed this year. Bryan Augenstein 9 IP, 7 H, 1 R (0 ER), 11 K, 0 BB vs. George Washington Not a huge opponent, but still a great game for Augenstein. He was allowed to toss 123 pitches in this game though. Thanks for the brief recap of the TCU game (just below) afewgoodcards. I didn't check the game log, as I'm still happy to hear they pulled Arrieta after 100 pitches. Two pitchers that were allowed to throw a lot of pitches early in the spring and throughout the college baseball season in recent years includes Brad Lincoln and Phillip Humber. While you can't say that their respective arm injuries had anything to do with their overuse, you can't dismiss the notion either. Sunday... Nick Schmidt 9 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 11 K, 2 BB vs. Minnesota I wish I could have made this game, as Schmidt finally seemed to have a game that seemed commonplace at the beginning of last season, and the Gophers are far from a team to sneeze at. Joe Savery 3.1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 3 K, 4 BB vs. Cal State Fullerton I felt this was a pretty big game for Savery, playing a very tough opponent, and unfortunately he wasn't up for the challenge. Fullerton RHP Sean Urena was, tossing a one-hit complete game shutout for the Titans.

Is anyone else having a problem connecting to BA today? I get a message saying my browser can't find their server. Thanks.

Yeah, Eager had the blister problems in the game I saw him in as well as noted in my account. In not so happy news, a bus carrying the Bluffton University baseball team crashed in Georgia early this morning, killing six of the players and critically injuring several others: sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/n...id=2785357 I'm actually somewhat surprised that this doesn't happen more often. Best wishes and my deepest thoughts and prayers to the players as well as their family and friends.

This post is for Shawn from the off-topic forum, whose Northwoods blog piqued my interest. This site is a great NWL fansite that I'm sure you're well aware of: www.nwlfan.com/ Here is a story that I wrote for PG last summer focusing on a day (with some notes) covering the NWL League: www.perfectgame.org/crack...%5Fleague/ One name that really caught my eye that day was Express RHP Thomas Eager, who did a nice job shutting down the Honkers that day. I felt at the time that Eager was an overlooked commodity in the league, and so far so good for Cal Poly this season pitching against some tough teams such as Santa Clara, San Diego State, San Diego and Nevada: 3-1, 2.04 ERA, 5 games (all starts), 1 CG, 35.1 IP, 21 H, 37 K, 11 BB, .171 BAA Eager's biggest problem in the NWL last summer was walking batters, an area in which he has obviously improved this season. Just like last summer, he continues to limit hits while missing bats, good signs for any pitcher with pro intent. I have a few inquiries into some West Coast contacts on Eager and hope to provide more on this possible diamond in the rough soon, but his low-90s heater and big breaking curveball caught my eye last summer. I mentioned earlier that Jordan Zimmerman of UW-SP is expected to miss some time with a broken jaw after getting hit with a line drive. I was hoping to see Zimmerman pitch later this month vs. UW-Platteville, and hopefully Zimmerman's jaw will be fine by then.

I realize I'm having this conversation by myself, but just in case anyone is reading, I just found out that Arkansas (at least according to both Arkansas' and Minnesota's websites) are starting Nick Schmidt on Sunday vs. the Gophers and not Friday vs. Ole Miss as originally expected. I know sometimes teams will stack their starters in tournaments a certain way, a way at least they think will help them win more games. I'm skeptical about this move. While Schmidt has a very good ERA so far this year, his walks are way up, and reports are that he hasn't been particularly sharp so far, which continues somewhat of a disturbing trend from last summer when he looked worn down for Team USA. It could be him shaking off the early season rust (although he started last year extremely well), but I am curious if Arkansas is giving him a couple of extra days for him to rest his arm. Many times when you hear reports about pitchers not being sharp and not striking out as many batters as they are capable of, arm problems ensue. That's just my own personal speculation, and nothing more.

I think this was mentioned on another thread already, possibly this one (I obviously didn't go back to check), but Jonthan Mayo of MiLB.com has added a weekly draft-related column as well as scouting profiles of top prospects this year. The good news is that this info is free, the info is probably reliable as it likely comes from the MLB scouting bureau, and gives more information to the ever growing list of people keeping a watchful eye on draft prospects. Here's a link to this week's column: web.minorleaguebaseball.c...;fext=.jsp And here's a link to one of the scouting profiles (Ross Detwiler in this case): web.minorleaguebaseball.c...c=detwiler MLB.com's draft coverage is pretty good from year-to-year, with quick scouting videos provided from the bureau. It only makes sense that they try to increase the interest by pushing more info earlier in the year, as the past couple of years they didn't start talking about it until early to mid-May (seemingly when most everyone else starts to pay attention).

Thanks Hairps. I didn't realize you were involved with that project. Continued thanks and kudos to both of you as I look forward to seeing that new venture continue to develop.

I noted this link in the college baseball thread, but in a story posted today on PG Crosschecker by Allan Simpson, there is a blurb at the bottom of the page talking about a true sleeper developing for this year's draft. The link is free for all to view, and I've copied and pasted the past just below the link: www.pgcrosschecker.com/20...22807.aspx David Rawnsley's weekly PGCC column is out today as well, as he ranks the top pitching prospects from the PG Indoor Showcase with a few more details on those in attendance: www.pgcrosschecker.com/20..._3107.aspx I would probably put Casey Crosby #1 overall, largely because he's an athletic lefty whose velocity continues to improve, but Rawnsley has been doing this stuff a lot longer than I have.

BA has a nice story up for subscribers on Vanderbilt closer Casey Weathers. www.baseballamerica.com/o...63456.html You gotta love that high leg kick: http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/cweathers07428309sof.jpg Allan Simpson of PGCC has a nice story up today covering the South Carolina-Clemson rivalry (they play a 2-game set this weekend), along with some other interesting college/draft notes: PGCC - South Carolina vs. Clemson

Thanks for clarifying Hairps, and nice to see you join in the discussion here. I think you'll find some Brewers fans around these parts that are a little gun-shy whenever Craig Counsell's name is brought up.

Both PGCC and BA have released their high school coverage for the 2007 season, with both publications picking Seton Hall Prep (New Jersey) as their preseason #1 team. Three Aflac All-Americans from a year ago (Rick Porcello, Evan Danieli and Steven Brooks) play for the Seton Hall program. Non-subscriber links below, check the high school pages for more subscriber-based content, as PGCC also has very extensive player profiles broken down by positions. PG Crosschecker top 100 teams PGCC HS baseball Baseball America top 50 teams BA HS preseason all-americans Josh Vitters http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/jvitters07428309lg.jpg

IMHO, there's probably not much reason to spend a pick on drafting a no-hit, slick fielding college player when Corey Patterson or Craig Counsell can still be had for next-to-nothing. Just for the record, I'm not suggesting that someone such as Ole Miss SS Zach Cozart, arguably the slickest defensive player available for the '07 draft, be taken in the top 10 picks due to his glove, rather, I'm asking if players such as J.P. Arencibia, a catcher with questionable defensive tools, should play as big of a factor in the first-round since his defense reportedly falls incredibly short of his bat. I'm a bat-first guy, so as Sam kind of alluded to, I'm not huge on spending $3M on Craig Counsell. However, offseason signings and first-round draft picks are two completely different monsters that you can rarely find any correlation between the two. In other words, I would never make my drafting decision based on who or who not be available in free agency, nor would I ever try to solve my utility infielder problem of today through the June draft.

I just want to point out that Lewis-Clark State has finally added an updated stats page, and Beau Mills is off to a very good start: .500/.578/.972 in 36 AB, 5 2B, 4 HR, 3:2 BB:K ratio (2 HBP) However, it's easy to argue that he should be. Lewis-Clark State is a powerhouse, although a powerhouse in the NAIA. Mills is a favorite prospect of mine, who reminds me of Jim Thome, and as a legitimate first-round pick, he really should be putting up obscene numbers given the level he's playing at, although after another week or two he may not be getting many pitches to hit.

The winter storm that is expected to pass through the Twin Cities and Northwoods regions will keep me from traveling this weekend to catch the DQ Classic, and I wouldn't be surprised if it keeps a few of the visiting teams from traveling as well (at least not before Saturday). So, with my changed plans I hope to catch Missouri State and Ross Detwiler play the Gophers a week from this Friday, not that anyone cares http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . Depending on what the storm does, if you're able to catch the DQ Classic this weekend, with the Ole Miss vs. Arkansas matchup being the most appealing, my offer still stands.