colbyjack

Jim Callis has done an interesting little study about just how risky HS pitchers really are. It's for subscribers only, so I'll provide some snippets below: www.baseballamerica.com/o...allis.html A year ago, a prominent national columnist wrote that general managers know statistics prove that they can get a major league starting righthander out of high school in the 20th round as in the first. There are just two problems with that statement. There wasn't a single righty drafted out of high school in the 20th round or later that was in a big league rotation at the time. And statistics prove no such thing. Callis is calling out Peter Gammons here, and I remember Gammons making that statement. No surprise that he probably didn't check his facts before making that statement, likely borrowing it from someone else. The bare bones of the study, which was based on college vs. HS RHPs drafted in the first round from 1990-97: 50 college RHPs were drafted & signed 35 HS RHPs were drafted & signed 41 (82%) of the college RHPs made the big leagues 25 (71%) of the HS RHPs made the big leagues 15 (30%) of the college RHPs were average or better at the MLB level 11 (31%) of the HS RHPs were average or better at the MLB level How about injuries? 23 (46%) of the college RHPs had elbow or shoulder surgery within 5 years of being drafted 18 (51%) of the HS RHPs had elbow or shoulder surgery within 5 years of being drafted I'm amazed at how close the numbers are, and as Callis also pointed out in the story, the drafting trends of the 90s were drastically different from those in the 80s, when teams largely focused on college talent, especially in the early 80s. Budgets exploded in the early 80s, with Brien Taylor being a prime example, and more & more HS players, particularly pitchers, started to play pro ball directly out of HS. Interesting study. Jim Callis also admits that he would lean towards the college arm since they have faced higher level competition and generally are more proven, but it's nice to see it proven that HS righties shouldn't necessarily be avoided like the plague.

I agree, I just cannot buy the "completely different level" statement. I've never been a big fan of looking at other divisions & other parks and easily come to the conclusion that Derek Lee could hit 50 bombs if he didn't hit at Pro Player Stadium, or that the Brewers would be in first place if they played in the AL Central. I agree, the A's are playing in an extremely tough division, and I never try to take anything they have done away from them. But everyone knows about what the A's have done, and they're not shy about receiving the attention. The Twins on the other hand have built their success very quietly, almost entirely internal, and they're simply not receiving the respect they should, and why Ryan isn't mentioned in the same breath as Billy Beane is beyond me. I agree 100% with EDR. And who's to say that the Twins aren't doing anything innovative? They're just not getting the pub. To tie into a thread on the off-topic forum regarding the GI Joe figure & a point that ben brought up, I love the Twins marketing. They just seem to have an incredibly well run ballclub from top to bottom and I'm very happy they survived the contraction scare because it would have been a shame to see a well-oiled orgnization like that removed.

I like Dombrowski too, and Littlefield in Pittsburgh, but even Dombrowski still gets more pub than Ryan, especially for what he did in Florida, both ways, good & bad, and rightfully so. I just don't have that feeling that people truly understand & appreciate the job Terry Ryan has done in the Twin Cities. As much as we talk about disrespect on the MLB forum about the Brewers, if I were a Twins fan, I would have a much bigger beef on the disrespect issue when it comes to the Twins' braintrust.

Colby, don't get me started. I just spent a week on another board arguing that Ryan and Beane were pretty much equal in my estimation and the Moneyball freaks started coming out of the walls like the critters in Aliens. Hey, I'll gladly get you started, because it bugs me when a book like Moneyball comes out making it look like Beane is a revolutionary pioneer while no other GM or team is doing anything innovative to build a successful ballclub with the same financial restrictions. Seriously, someone should write a book on what Ryan is doing in Minnesota. While it won't be as contreversial as Moneyball, it likely will be twice as interesting. Disclaimer: I realize the points aren't that dramatic, so please don't feel the need to defend the book nor the A's & Mr. Beane. Beane is great, without a doubt, but Terry Ryan in my mind is THE most underrated GM in all of baseball, possibly the best, and has built his team almost exclusively through player developement. And with similar budget constraints, Ryan has opted more for the best player available scenario, with a mix of both college & high school players, with a slight preference for the prepsters. His recent drafting efforts is a perfect example of the job he does in Minnesota. John Scheurholz (sp?) rebuilt the Braves the same way. Of course, it helps when the A's, Braves & Twins have several high draft picks to help that rebuilding effort, and hopefully the Brewers will reap the benefits of their struggles.

Let me play the role of JaNelson tonight by reminding the Brewers that the 13-man pitching staff is ridiculous already. Kieschnick, Wise, and Burba were all very rusty coming in -- heck, Kinney hasn't pitched in what, 13 days? You mean the role of pointing out when & how the Brewers will fall so fast because they're playing way over their heads? Sorry, every time this point has been brought up this year it's because they have faced brief periods of adversity. I have been amazed at the teams consistency all year. The 5-game win streak was somewhat of an aberration for this team, who took several games to get 2, then 3, then 4, then 5, and so on, games over .500. They haven't won too many games in a row, despite their recent 5 game win streak, but they haven't lost too many games in a row either. They have won in April, May & June, they have won at home & on the road. The splits aren't painfully disturbing as they just have been incredibly consistent all season. I've called this team the past couple of years team streak, because they have had some nasty Jeckyl & Hyde impersonations. When they've been on, they're unstoppable. When they're off, they're horrible. This year they have been amazingly consistent, and simlar to Scott Podsednik's success last year, just when you think they're going to hit the tank, they bounce back and improve a game or two from where they were before. Basically, there's no reason to panic even after a couple of crappy performances today. I'm not saying anyone is, but I am incredibly impressed with the team's constitution to not fall victim of the spiralling losing streak that has stricken the Brewers so many times in the past. At least not yet. In a nutshell, since the Brewers long homestand in mid-June they have taken 2 from the Astros, 2 from the Mariners, 2 from the Twins, only 1 from the Rockies (when several thought was the downward turning point for the Brewers series) only to bounce back by taking 2 more from the Twins & sweeping the Rockies at home. There are 2 more games to be played in this series, & then it's on to the mighty Cubs. Show some faith, as few expected the Brewers to be even this good at this point in the season, and I'm loving the fact that they keep proving people wrong, even the most die-hard & knowledagble fans.

Does anyone find it strange that the Brewers signed two indy league guys instead of promoting from within? Well, the Brewers & more specifically have claimed that they are going to be more patient in promoting their prospects and it seems as though they are sticking by their guns. After starting hot, Rottino has cooled off. Tofholz has been solid all year, but it's still his first year in Beloit. Boyd on the other hand might be a solid choice for a promotion, given his success both this year & last at High Desert. I'm interested in getting MassBrew's opinion on Huntsville's new bat after campaigning the Brewers to do so for the past month or so. That's your cue MB...http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

That's great news. Thanks to both you & reags24 (on a different thread) for catching that & reporting it. We'll update the signings thread when it's made official, as I'm sure Mr. Powell will mention it at some point tonight.

I'll try to update this every month, not so much for draft order but just to see who is rising & falling with each month. Draft order after games played on July 1: 1. Expos 2. Rockies 3. D-Backs 4. Royals 5. Mariners 6. Pirates 7. Orioles 8. Blue Jays 9. Tigers 10. Braves 11. Mets 12. Indians 13. D-Rays 14. Astros 15. Marlins 16. Padres 17. Angels 18. Dodgers 19. Phillies 20. Twins 21. Reds 22. Red Sox 23. Brewers 24. Cubs 25. Giants 26. White Sox 27. A's 28. Rangers 29. Cardinals 30. Yankees Brewers at #23? All of the teams from 13-30 are at or above .500. That's parity at it's finest.

Good call on Barnes. Great K:BB, 17:0 in 11.2 IP. So far so good on his conversion back to the mound. As MB has noted, it's great to see Adam Mannon hitting so well, especially since he struggled a little bit last year, both in our system and at Chandler-Gilbert CC. I'm also happy to see Rasheed back in the leadoff spot after Fermaint was used there for a couple of games. It's hard not to have Rasheed's speed at the top of the order, and so far, he has seemed to have picked up where he left off at Lake City CC. And all of the Helena batters seem to be doing a good job drawing walks, even more "raw" players like Fermaint, Mannon & Rasheed. Anthony Festa might become a new favorite of Toby's a la Tommy Carrow & Drew Anderson the way he's drawing free passes. Speaking of walks, it's great to see that Brad Nelson keeps on drawing walks. Is Tony Gwynn Jr. swinging for the fences more than he should be? A guy with 11 extra base hits shouldn't have as many Ks as he does, especially for a guy that prides himself on making contact.

The Twins have done a phenomenal job getting all of those picks signed. Someone should write a book about it http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . As for Langille, when talking about visas it was noted that they would be limited so maybe the Brewers and Langille were able to obtain one, as opposed to a bunch of them for all of their Canadian draftees. Given as high as a pick he was you know they wanted to add him to their system sooner rather than later.

I'm not sure if 2nd rounders typically take longer to sign, but above and elsewhere I have mentioned this: The last 2 HS 2nd rounders the Brewers have taken have taken longer to sign; J.J. Hardy & Josh Murray. If we're at the end of July & Gallardo's still not signed, I'll start to get concerned.

The Tournament of the Stars in Joplin, MO. is now over and the Junior National Team has been announced: www.usabaseball.com/jrn_players.html Drew Bowman did not make the team.

Beloit is up 2-0, now in the top of the 9th. Not much offense in this game. Stetter has pitched 3 innings, did catch how many Beresford ended up going.

42:36 BB:K Ye of little faith. I could really care less about his BB:K ratio if a college draftee can't hit .250 in low-A. Of course, it's early, as our phenoms are struggling to hit .250 at AA. But, I just had to throw that out there.

Nice to see Kane County's Luke Appert hitting a robust .242 http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

I have word from a very good source that the Brewers are trying to negotiate a 2005 contract with Langille. Thanks cress. That makes a lot of sense. Obviously the Brewers liked Langille enough to take him as high as they did, yet, he can't play this season given the visa issues. If they don't sign him this summer Langille would be the highest selected DFE candidate, if he attends a JC that is, that the Brewers have ever had under Jack Z.

Personally it seems a little odd that it is not done at this point as the Brewers in recent years have not been known as a team that low-balls players. I don't think it's about low-balling Gallardo. As I've pointed out before, the last 2 HS 2nd rounders the Brewers have taken have taken longer to sign; J.J. Hardy & Josh Murray.

IIAY, you make solid points, some of which I wondered about all season (budgeting appropriately, especially considering what Weeks made last year). But, as 11 pointed out with what teams are paying out, I don't think you can just assume the Brewers will have the same budget as last year since so many teams are really strapping down on signing bonuses. LeClercq was a very nice sign, but his signing bonus wasn't that crazy (I believe it was reported somewhere in the $130 range) compared to his slot value. Bowman on the other hand would receive an insane amount of money if he gets anywhere near the reported 2nd-3rd round bonus money he was looking for. I think cress brings up a very good point. If the team is unable to sign Gallardo they may very well turn to Bowman, and that might have been their intent all along. Or maybe Morgan. And if so, that is a very, very good plan IMO. There's nothing wrong with burning a later pick on a risky sign, especially if their is a contingency in place. I still think Gallardo will end up signing, but then again, most expected Jarrad Page to sign in 2002, as he was even a guest on the Brewers radio broadcast shortly after the 2002 draft. When negotiations dragged on, all of the sudden the Brewers signed Steve Moss. We never found out what Moss got as a 29th rounder, and while the Brewers praised their local scouts for figuring out Moss' signability, I wouldn't be surprised if he signed for MUCH more than slot value, possibly as a backup plan if guys like Page & Kahn didn't sign. A big chunk of money handed to a late-round pick that fell due to various reasons will make any scout look good. And Honolulu also brings up a good point. By signing Rickie to the deal we did the Brewers were able to spread out his deal over several years, instead of just giving him one lump sum. Although I have heard they do that anyway, even if a signing bonus is reported to be such & such amount. In the Matt Bush chronicles it was reported that the Padres already gave him $150k, or something like that, so it's not like they instantly cut him a check for the $3.15 million dollar signing bonus that was reported. And that brings up an interesting discussion, who would you rather have, Gallardo or Bowman? I strongly doubt it will be both.

Ah yes, thanks PTH. Always thinking about that college commitment http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

Actually Ryan Webb, the A's 4th rounder, is a prep pitcher.

Texas Tech? I thought Gallardo was commited to Texas Christian?

Yeah, I really liked Janish as well. Despite his big season at the plate this year I know scouts were still concerned about his bat. They just don't think it translates very well to wood, despite his improvements at the plate this year. Not the greatest bat speed from what I've heard & been told. I still stand by my comparison to Greg Gagne, and if Janish turns into that player, while not spectacular, he could enjoy a long & productive big league career.

I am suprised Macri slipped to the 5th based upon previous conversations. I too like Macri, but there were/are some concerns about his swing being rather long. He's still has great value as a 5th rounder. Colby, is it safe to assume you think the Brewers draft lies somewhere in the middle? Or do you see the Brewers being close to the top or close to the bottom? Yeah, I would put them right in the middle. At this point in time, I don't think anyone really had a bad draft, other than the 3 teams I noted that I wasn't particularly fond of. I'm still a little concerned with the Brewers taking 2 prep arms with their top 2 picks, and there really isn't a legitimate positional prospect at this point in time, although Salome, Chapman & LeClercq show promise. I think they got good value with Wahpepah, Baker & Chapman, and I would rate their draft higher if I thought they could sign Bowman, Morgan or Pryor, and I personally don't think they will. Maybe Pryor, the other 2 are as good as gone IMO.

I've been compiling a list over the last week or two on my thoughts of the best & worst drafts of 2004. Without further ado... Best drafts: Minnesota Twins: Trevor Plouffe (1) Glen Perkins (1) Kyle Waldrop (1) Matt Fox (1S) Jay Rainville (1S) Anthony Swarzak (2) Of their top picks, all but Perkins & Rainville have signed, and both are expected to do so before the summer is over. All but Plouffe are pitchers, and Plouffe could have been drafted as a pitcher, but his upside is greater as a SS. Their draft is definitely better for picking out players they could sign given their extra picks. Waldrop was a big-time Vanderbilt commit, and Swarzak was leaning towards LSU. Dodgers: Scott Elbert (1) Blake DeWitt (1) Justin Orenduff (1S) Blake Johnson (2) Jeff Larish (13) David Price (19) Michael Branham (39) Troy Grundy (41) I bring up Price, Branham & Grundy because they're all top prep pitchers that fell due to signability concerns. The Dodgers have a strong track record signing such late rounders to contracts given their budget flexibility, which will also aid them in attempting to sign Jeff Larish. Even without those players, Elbert, DeWitt & Orenduff are extremely solid players. Royals: Billy Butler (1) Matt Campbell (1) J.P. Howell (1S) Billy Buckner (2) Erik Cordier (2) Josh Johnson (3) Nice mix of players, with a talented, powerful prep bat in Butler, 2 polished college lefties in Campbell & Howell, a polished college righty in Buckner, a projectable prep righty in Cordier and a 5-tool SS in Johnson. They'll be pressed to sign all of these players, but even if they manage to sign 4 of them it's a job well done. White Sox: Josh Fields (1) Tyler Lumsden (1S) Gio Gonzalez (1S) Wes Whisler (2) Donny Lucy (2) Ray Liotta (2) Brandon Allen (5) Tim Murphey (7) The White Sox drafted 5 extremely talented LHPs in the top 7 rounds, thanks to extra picks. Fields could be their starter at 3B in a couple of years and Allen is a powerful corner OF prospect. A's: Landon Powell (1) Richie Robnett (1) Danny Putnam (1S) Huston Street (1S) Michael Rogers (2) Kurt Suzuki (2) Jason Windsor (3) Ryan Webb (4) When haven't the A's had a strong draft? And it's never about their top picks, but about all of their picks as a whole. They got 2 outstanding, well-rounder college catchers in Powell & Suzuki and 2 talented, multi-tooled college outfielders in Robnett & Putnam. RHP Huston Street could be the steal of the draft. Brewerfan.net poster 11 tabbed the A's to take UNC State's Michael Rogers back in March it seems, while Windsor pitched a masterful complete game shutout the other day in the CWS (despite throwing 140+ pitches). Ryan Webb is the odd man in this group as a projectable prep righty. If Beane spent a high pick on a guy like that you know he likes him. Best drafts, no extra picks: Indians: Jeremy Sowers (1) Justin Hoyman (2) Scott Lewis (3) Chuck Lofgren (4) Mike Butia (5) Mark Jecmen (7) Of course I'm biased with Sowers, but the Indians got great value with all of the picks listed above. Scott Lewis could be a sleeper since he missed most of this year after having TJ surgery late last spring. Tigers: Justin Verlander (1) Eric Beattie (2) Jeff Frazier (3) 3 solid picks, all great value for where they were taken. Verlander is a power arm that the Tigers love, Beattie is a more polished sinker/slider type, while Frazier is a 5-tool college OF. Rockies: Chris Nelson (1) Seth Smith (2) Steven Register (3) Chris Iannetta (4) Matt Macri (5) Joe Koshansky (6) Nelson was an absolute steal with the 9th overall pick. Smith is another 5-tool college outfielder that could have been taken much higher with a better spring. While I'm not big on taking college closers early, Register is another steal in the 3rd round. Macri has big upside while Koshansky could be a Kieschnick clone. They also could have a couple of more potential steals if they're able to sign prep OF Dexter Fowler (14) or prep RHP/C Dominick Foster (17). D-Backs: Stephen Drew (1) Jon Zeringue (2) Garrett Mock (3) Ross Ohlendorf (4) Cesar Nicolas (5) AJ Shappi (9) Chris Carter (17) Drew was a steal for where the D-Backs took him. Of course, he won't come cheap, but if he lives up to his potential...Jon Zeringue, Nicolas & Carter adds 3 powerful OF bat to the system, while Mock, Ohlendorf & Shappi adds 3 intriguing arms. Reds: Homer Bailey (1) B.J. Szymanski (2) Getting both of these players where they did are big-time steals for the Reds. Plus, they added one of my favorite players later in Paul Janish (5), who is already signed & has played well for the Billings Mustangs. Worst drafts: Astros: Hunter Pence (2) Troy Patton (9) Pence is best known around here as a former Brewers draftee. A good hitter, he doesn't offer much more than his bat, and was a stretch as a 2nd round pick. The Astros have come up golden with later round picks over the past several years, so they'll likely make up for it with some player we've never heard of before in a year or two. Braves: Eric Campbell (2) J.C. Holt (3) Campbell was a reach in the 2nd round, while Holt has decent value in the 3rd. Not much else for the Braves, who may have taken a more budget-minded approach this year, something I'm not used to when following the Braves drafting efforts. Marlins: Taylor Tankersley (1) Justin Vargas (2) I like both Tankersley & Vargas, mostly because they're both lefties, but both probably profile as lefty-specialists down the road, something you don't go out of your way early to draft. Risky draft: Angels: Jered Weaver (1) Nick Adenhart (14) Mark Trumbo (18) The Angels broke the Weaver slide, and also picked up a couple of other talented RHPs later in the draft in Adenhart & Trumbo. They'll be hard-pressed to sign Adenhart & Trumbo away from UNC & USC respectively, while Weaver will likely take the entire summer, if not the fall & winter, to sign. Draft note: The Padres have already signed their top 12 picks, and 27 of their top 30 overall selections. While Matt Bush is really the only name that stands out, you have to tip your hat for getting so many players under contract so quickly, even if they did go the budget route (inking Bush to $3.1 million quickly as the #1 overall selection & not having a 2nd rounder).

nikip's question about the top prep prospects for 2005 had me glancing at this year's standings. I haven't had much time to follow what has been going, so I thought I would post the standings, as this discussion may be more for the MLB thread: Draft order, winning percentage (as of yesterday's games): 1. Expos, .328 2. Rockies, .368 3. D-Backs, .391 4. Pirates, .394 5. Royals, .394 6. Orioles, .431 7. Mariners, .433 8. Blue Jays, .435 9. Tigers, .456 10. Braves, .471 11. D-Rays, .485 12. Padres, .500 13. Mets, .500 14. Indians, .500 15. Astros, .522 16. Brewers, .530 17. White Sox, .530 18. Marlins, .536 19. Giants, .536 20. Phillies, .537 21. Angels, .544 22. Reds, .551 23. Twins, .559 24. Rangers, .561 25. Dodgers, .561 26. Cubs, .565 27. A's, .567 28. Red Sox, .574 29. Cardinals, .594 30. Yankeees, 642 Remember, draft order will not be affect by leagues next year, only be reverse order in standings. Tie-breakers as far as I know will still be awarded to the team that finished worse in the standings the year before. A few observations... Man, the Expos are really, really bad. Even in their bad years they seem to compete with what they have. If they go cheap on the #1 pick next year since they're owned by MLB, that's too bad, especially since Justin Upton may continue to be the top player on everyone's board. It doesn't seem as though there are many teams in the .400 range, at least not compared to past years. In fact, starting with the 12th pick, all teams are .500 or above. Is this parity starting to work for MLB? Aside from the mighty Yankees & their amazing .642 winning percentage, especially considering their slow start, there are a bunch of teams packed together, including the Brewers. And speaking of the Brewers, they haven't picked as "low" as the 16th pick since 1993, when we took Jeff D'Amico with the 23rd overall selection. The D-Rays have won 11 in a row? Man, I am out of touch. That has to make the Orioles & Blue Jays look pretty bad right now. The Jays looked promising at the end of last year, while the O's spent a lot of money this offseason in an attempt to look good. Of course, they're playing in one of the tougher divisions, with 2 of MLB's top 3 teams. The Royals are showing that last year was likely more of a fluke than not. When's the last time the Braves picked as early as 10th overall? Back when they picked #2 overall in 1991 (Mike Kelly, not quite as memorable as the #1 overall pick in 1990, Chipper Jones). The Padres & Mets have both drastically improved from last year. Most expected that out of the Padres, not the Mets. The Reds & Rangers have jumped up more than the Padres & Mets. And how about that AL West? The Giants certainly have been playing better in recent weeks, as have the Cardinals. All of the Tigers signings have improved their draft position from #2 to #9 overall. And that's after their hot start. If the Brewers even stay close to where they're playing now, it will be interesting entering next year's draft with such a relatively low pick. In the past couple of years, especially last year, it was easy to narrow down the draft candidates. Next year there could easily be 20 candidates in contention for our first-round pick, and if the Brewers do indeed draft on the sunny side of 15, they better not sign any type A or B free agents this offseason, unless free agent draft compensation is done away with, but I wouldn't count on that.