Manny Parra Predictions

[recte44]

The separate Yovani Gallardo prediction thread made me think of this. We can all agree, pretty closely, that Gallardo is going to have a good to great season. At least that is everyone's expectation of him. Sure, there's a lot of pressure on Yo to step up and be "the guy" now, but he's been in a position close to that before, and has produced.

 

Even more important to our hopes in 2009 (and beyond) the way the current roster is setup is the success or failure of Manny Parra to attain his vast potential at age 26.

 

What say you, Brewerfan.net? Project Manny Parra's 2009 campaign.

 

W-L, ERA, IP, BB, K, WHIP

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

14-10, 4 ERA, 190 IP, 160 K's, 80 BB's, 1.30 WHIP

 

190 innings might be a little optimistic considering we overused him last year, but I'm going to hope that his advanced age and a little luck will kick in and he'll have a nice year. There is the upside with Manny though to go 200 innings with 200 K's, but I don't see that happening just yet.

[joepepsi]

13-9, 3.84ERA, 196 ip, 80BB,180K

[MJLiverock]

12-12, 3.95 ERA, 180 IP, 80 BB, 165 Ks, 1.40 WHIP

[JohnBriggs12]

11-13, 4.48 ERA, 181 IP, 154 K's, 87 BB. 1.48 WHIP

 

I'm just not sold on Manny as a number 2 starter. He walks too many and doesn't get deep in games.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I'm just not sold on Manny as a number 2 starter. He walks too many and doesn't get deep in games.

As do a lot of young pitchers with less than a year of starting experience in the big leagues. The stuff is there to be good, it's just a matter of experience and refinement, IMO.

[BADGERJOBOB]

12-10 180IP 4.10 ERA 155K 1.45WHIP

 

I'm with JB, not a number 2 pitcher at this point in time. If things go well this year, next year could be the year he takes a jump up.

[fondybrewfan]

14-12 3.5 ERA, 195 innings, 190 K's.

 

I think this is the year for him, he now has a year of experience under his belt and he certainly has the stuff to eventually be a sub 3 ERA pitcher

[JohnBriggs12]

TWR,

 

He's not that young by baseball standards.

 

You could be right but I'll stick to my prediction and hope I'm wrong. I just think there's a little too much overlooking his shortcomings by Brewer fans. His stuff might be good but his results so far have been ordinary. I actually have him improving his WHIP (which was quite bad last year) slightly.

[Tbadder]

4-8 120 innings 4.95 88ks. Physically and mentally I'm not sold on this guy at all. Injuries, poor performances this season--remember, this is the Milwaukee Brewers we're talking about. This is the guy that Prince had to b-slap in the dug out.

[Ennder]

Parra had 9 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 with a 55% GB rate in the 2nd half last year which is an elite skillset(3.17 xERA), he showed tremendous growth throughout the season.

 

Put me down for a mid to high 3 ERA and just under a K per IP with something like 180 IP. Pitching is too random for me to give a more accurate prediction than that~.

[davego]

What difference does it make if he is called the #1,2, 3 or 4th guy? Don't they all get about the same amount of starts?

 

Id just guess that he will give the 'Crew about 180 IP (close to Yo) but be much more 'up and down' in his performance. ERA of around 4.00?

[ILuvDaBush]

52IP

 

36 SV

 

71K

 

19BB

 

1.31 WHIP

[fondybrewfan]

52IP

 

36 SV

 

71K

 

19BB

 

1.31 WHIP

You really think Parra will be the closer? Unless the SP situation drastically changes before opening day I would think both Bush and McClung would be changed to a closer before Parra.

[joepepsi]

Wow. A lot of people here don't like this guy much.

[brewerguy71]

120 IP, 1.45 WHIP, 100 K, 55 BB, 7-9...

 

blows out his elbow or shoulder sometime in July or August...

[BrewCrewForever]

I think Manny will win 13 or 14 games with an ERA around 4. He will throw more strikes bringing his pitch count down as well as his WHIP which means deeper into games. A strong season to grow on when he really breaks out in 2010.

[PlayerHader]

15-9 3.63 ERA 186 IP 178 K 75BB 1.23 whip

[DHonks]

I for one am expecting huge things from Parra. What I like is that he struggled in '08 with walks, yet in the minors he rarely walked anyone. I'm expecting Manny to go roughly 14-8, 3.70 185 IP 180 K's 50 BB

[TheCrew07]

JB12.

 

I don't think age should be the determining factor here with Parra. He was seriously injured in the minors losing parts of multiple seasons, then comes up and pitches well only to break a bone being hit with a ball. I'm not making excuses for him, it's simply the reality of the situation.

 

In truth this is like his 22 maybe 23 year old season, it's not unrealistic to expect growth out of him. The tools are there, we can count the left handed starting pitchers with his raw stuff on one hand. The question is if the rest of his game ever catches up with his natural talent. He pitched a perfect game at AAA, he's plenty talented. If he'll just nibble less and stay on the attack he'll go deeper into games and walk fewer batters, I'm hoping the young guys learned something watching Sabathia go about his business.

 

3.75 ERA, 195 IP, 177 Ks, 70 BBs

 

He continues climbing the ladder.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

4-8 120 innings 4.95 88ks. Physically and mentally I'm not sold on this guy at all. Injuries, poor performances this season--remember, this is the Milwaukee Brewers we're talking about. This is the guy that Prince had to b-slap in the dug out

The economy must be getting to people because that post is overly pessimistic. Injuries? Not this year. Poor performances? He was pegged as our #3 starter until he ran out of gas in September. He was our 2nd best starter in the months of June and July. The guy can pitch as his peripherals show. I'll bet you a case of Schlitz that he doesn't do that bad barring serious injury.

[jjfanec]

3.75 ERA, 195 IP, 177 Ks, 70 BBs

 

He continues climbing the ladder.

These are near the numbers I would expect him to have. I will go 3.8 ERA, 180 IP, 158 K, 74 BB. That will be good enough for a good record. If he is able to cut down his walks he will be solid. Interestingly enough in the minors his WHIP was usually much lower after he got called to a higher level. He is a 1.26 career WHIP in the minors so I would be surprised to see him be a consistent 1.5 WHIP kind of pitcher. I am guessing he was just trying to be too cute. He needs to pound the zone a bit more which will drop his K's and BB, but will allow him to go deeper into games.

[JohnBriggs12]

TheCrew07,

 

Parra had over 100 starts in the minors and made double digit starts every year since 2002. It's not like his 22 year old season for the simple reason he should have a huge edge in maturity over a 22 year old. He's also over 4 years removed from his surgery which wiped out the second half of 2004 and first half of 2005.

 

His time for excuses should be over. You'll note I have him putting up respectable numbers. I think he'll be a decent major league starter going forward. I just don't think he's quite at the level some think he is. Time will tell.

[rluzinski]

I'll give him a 4.0 ERA projection for 2009, which makes him very valuable as a starting pitcher. if you lett me know what kind of run support he is going to get, I'll give you my win estimate. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I'll give him a 4.0 ERA projection for 2009

We agree on something? Has hell frozen over? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

 

When I made my wins prediction, I took the Brewers offense into account. If you could use the Brewers offensive projections as of now, how many wins would a 4 ERA get?