While Still a Work in Progress, DL Hall Has Taken a Key Step in the Right Direction

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

A relentless offense has been the story of late in Milwaukee, as the Brewers clawed their way back from a 5-0 deficit to complete a sweep against the New York Mets on Sunday and extend their winning streak to nine games. But before Isaac Collins capped another dramatic win with his walk-off home run, it was DL Hall who put them in a position to finish the comeback.

After Quinn Priester labored through 4 ⅓ innings, Hall delivered 11 outs of scoreless long relief. Not only did that quiet a Mets lineup that had scored in each of the first five frames, but it also provided much-needed rest for the Brewers' high-leverage relievers amid a stretch of 30 games in 31 days.

"Just thinking about the bullpen, trying to help those guys out and give our leverage guys as many days off as I can," he said postgame. "Obviously, we had a few guys down today, so I just wanted to help the team, provide some length, and save some arms."

The southpaw has been more productive in his second season with the Brewers, after a rough campaign a year ago. With the addition of a cutter and a two-seamer to his arsenal, Hall has completed his transformation from a power pitcher with an 80-grade fastball to a kitchen-sink guy who mixes seven pitches to help his unremarkable stuff play up. His four-seam usage has plummeted from over 50% early in his career to about 30% this season, giving way to a more balanced pitch mix.

Some pretty clear red flags show that Hall remains a work in progress. He is not getting and staying ahead in counts or getting many swings and misses, resulting in a 1.53 strikeout-to-walk ratio that ranks in the 5th percentile of pitchers to throw at least 30 innings this year. He's unlikely to maintain his 2.83 ERA without shoring up his location, but the good news is that he's on the right track in deploying his arsenal.

Because Hall is better shielding his four-seamer by mixing speeds and shapes, its whiff rate has jumped from 12.6% last season to a more palatable 20.9% this year. Mets hitters whiffed on four of eight swings against it on Sunday. Mixing and matching has also helped him avoid barrels; while hitters have rarely looked overpowered by his stuff, they've often looked caught in between, leading to weak contact. He has held opponents to a meager 29.5% hard-hit rate, according to Statcast.

So far, Hall's season has been a reminder that a player's results can be unsustainable without being strictly good luck. His microscopic .170 BABIP means he's due for some major regression at some point—batted balls never go for hits at such a low rate, in the long run—but he has also created some of that good fortune for himself. He's been forced to reinvent himself without significant big-league experience. The next step is tightening his command to pair with his more mature approach.

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[GasserFace]

Do you think there is a correlation between his pitch mix, reduced K rate and reduced hard hit rate / BABIP?  Have the Brewers sold him on missing fewer bats, and try for weak contact?

Pitchers that want to maximize their career earnings are always striving to miss bats, but maybe DL has figured out that his niche is not a swing and miss guy, but a soft contact, defense dependent lefty.  If so, that would be very mature, as Jack states, but could actually increase his long term earnings.

Interesting article about a really intriguing pitcher.