A look Into Coleman Crow's Breakout Double-A Season

On Wednesday, Milwaukee promoted RHP Coleman Crow from Double-A Biloxi to Triple-A Nashville. 

Crow was acquired from the Mets back in December 2023 as the return for two major leaguers – Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor. Crow, who at the time ranked as the Mets’ No. 29 prospect, blew out his elbow after just four starts that year. He didn’t undergo Tommy John surgery until July of 2023, which caused him to end up missing the entire 2024 regular season while rehabbing. 

Simply put, it’s been a long wait to finally get Crow on the mound. The twenty-four-year-old right-hander didn’t end up making his debut with the Brewers’ organization until April of this year. 

Crow had previously posted pretty underwhelming stats in the minors. In 2022, his only full season above Single-A, Crow posted the worst ERA (4.85) of his career. Some of his the underlying peripherals actually looked pretty good -- 2.46 BB/9, 9.00 K/9. His FIP (4.64) and WHIP (1.31) weren't great, yet both marked significant improvements from the previous year (5.29, 1.56). 

A major reason for his lack of success in 2022 was his HR/9 of 1.41. For context, the average major league HR/9 has been somewhere between 1.1 and 1.2 each of the last four years. Crow himself has never posted a HR/9 higher than 1.13 in any season apart from that 2022 campaign. 

The Brewers clearly saw something in Crow, even after a less-than-stellar season. The two most appealing things about his profile were -- and still are -- his plus curveball and extremely flat vertical approach angle (VAA).

The success of his curveball is due to generating a crazy amount of spin. Javik Blake, the broadcaster for Double-A Biloxi, helps provide some context as to just how unique Crow's ability to spin the ball is:

Stats only tell half of the story: look at what that amount of spin does to a pitch! It looks like a video game curveball:

According to Curt Hogg, Crow regularly gets around 19" of vertical break on his curveball. Only one pitcher in the entire major leagues (the Cardinals' Phil Maton) averages 19" of vertical break on his curve. Now, you might ask: can batters still hit it? What's the whiff rate on a Crow curveball? An astounding 41%.

Crow's secondary pitches are less impressive, although the bar is high given how effective his curveball is. His four seamer carries a pretty respectable whiff rate of 20%. Crow doesn't throw hard, with the four-seamer normally sitting between 91-93 mph. His fastball had previously gotten outs due to its low release slot. Spencer Michaelis wrote an article on Crow after the Houser trade detailing Crow's vertical approach angle. His fastball comes in at a significantly flatter angle than most, similar to Freddy Peralta. As a result, hitters will often swing under the pitch.

Sometimes, that can lead to more home runs -- such as in the case of 2022. If combined with deceptive off-speed pitches and good command, it can also get batters to pop out on pitches they would otherwise be able to square up. Crow's stats this year are interesting given this background. His line drive percentage and infield fly percentage are both about 10% lower than in previous years. Batters are hitting more ground balls and more line drives against him. Yet, his stats are the best they've ever been -- 2.51 ERA, 2.07 FIP, 0.42 HR/9, 1.6 BB/9.

When Crow has been hit around this year, it's almost exclusively on fastballs that stayed in the hitting zone. Per Hogg, Crow's fastball needs to be elevated more than your standard four-seamer to get outs. The problem with this -- as mentioned above -- is that pitches up in the zone are generally easier to hit for extra bases. A slow, high fastball, if timed right, is the perfect pitch to hit for a home run. If hitters can adjust to the flatter angle, they can drive Crow's fastball.

This year, Crow has been relying more on his off-speed pitches to challenge hitters. Basically, he's figured out how to keep hitters off balance in a way he didn't in 2022 -- his last full season. The below video, from a start on June 1st, shows strike three of each of Crow's nine strikeouts. Only two of the nine pitches were fastballs up in the zone.

He's mixing locations, speeds, and pitches consistently -- keeping hitters off balance and making it harder to sit on a fastball up.

The other reason that Crow has been getting more ground balls this season? He's throwing his cutter -- a pitch that plays well down in the zone -- a lot more. In the month of June (17 IP), Crow has allowed two earned runs while utilizing the cutter heavily. More than that, he's been using it to attack the zone -- as seen in the clip of his nine strikeouts. His cutter seems to be more effective in getting ground balls -- and outs -- than the four seamer.

Crow has also featured a slider and, more recently, a changeup with arm-side run. A consistent changeup would be huge for Crow, as he currently doesn't have a pitch that moves in the opposite direction of his cutter and curveball (which both break to the glove side).

The final minor league test for Crow lies ahead in Nashville. He's currently on the 7-day IL with hip pain, but is only expected to miss one start.

Crow has clearly figured out how to use his four, soon to be five, pitch arsenal to keep Double-A hitters off balance and get outs. He will undoubtedly face better competition in Triple-A, and it remains to be seen to what extent this breakout will translate. Milwaukee certainly thinks Crow will hold his own, or they wouldn't have promoted him.

When Crow makes his Triple-A debut next week, keep an eye on him. His curveball is easily one of the most impressive pitches in the Brewers' farm system. If he can develop a second reliable pitch -- whether it be a cutter, four-seam, or changeup -- he could very well develop into a legitimate mid-rotation guy someday.

Interested in learning more about the Milwaukee Brewers' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!