2024 Chicago Cubs Season Preview

Since 2015, the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and St. Louis Cardinals each won three NL Central titles. The Cubs had two runner-up finishes, while the Brewers and Cardinals each had three. For the most part—other than the Cubs 2016 World Series win—these three teams were pretty much interchangeable in the top three places in the division.

Last year on Independence Day, the Cubs were in 4^th place in the Central Division but played .661 baseball over the next two months and closed to within 1 ½ games of the Brewers, but faded after Labor Day, winning only seven of 22 games over the last month or so to end nine games short of the Central title.

Losses/Signings
The Cubs key losses include infielder Jeimer Candelario, and pitchers Marcus Stroman and Michael Fulmer to free agency. On the plus side of the ledger, the Cubs were able to re-sign 1B-OF Cody Bellinger. They also received first baseman Michael Busch and pitcher Yency Almonte in a trade with the Dodgers. Veteran reliever Hector Neris was signed as a free agent, and who can forget the signing of Nippon Professional Baseball League left-handed ace Shota Imanaga? And you might have heard that former long-time Brewers manager Craig Counsell now wears a Chicago uniform and will be trying to beat the team that plays in Milwaukee.

Pitching Staff
Counsell has already tabbed Justin Steele as the Opening Day starter. The southpaw had an ERA+ of 146 and a 3.02 FIP to go along with 16 victories in 2023. Shota Imanaga brings his experience and success (3.18 ERA over 1,002 innings in eight years) from Japan and will most likely be slotted in the number two spot, with veteran Kyle Hendricks (120 ERA+, 3.81 FIP) expected to be in the mix as well. With the uncertainty of the lower back injury/tightness to Jameson Taillon, it is possible he will start the year on the injured list.

The remaining starters will probably come from the foursome of Javier Assad, Drew Smyly, Hayden Wesneski, or Jordan Wicks. Smyly (90 ERA+, 4.96 FIP) is out of minor league options, so he should stick, either in the rotation or in the bullpen. Assad (147 ERA+, 4.29 FIP) and lefty Wicks (102 ERA+, 4.70 FIP) are the front-runners to round out the quintet, but Counsell has mentioned he might use six pitchers in a ‘five-man rotation.’

Almonte (86 ERA+, 4.59 FIP), Mark Leiter, Jr. (129 ERA+, 3.77 FIP), and Julian Merryweather (133 ERA+, 3.52 FIP) should be mainstays in the bullpen, while Adbert Alzolay (168 ERA+, 3.02 FIP, 22 saves) will close out games, with Neris (246 ERA+, 3.83 FIP) in a set-up role, ready to step up if Alzolay falters. Keegan Thompson (96 ERA+, 4.44 FIP) has done well in a small sample size this spring and might be in the mix as well. 

Catchers
Yan Gomes didn’t act like a 35-year-old last year, starting 92 games and hitting .267/.315/.408 across 419 trips to the plate. Expect his playing time to be about the same this year. The Cubs have high hopes for back-up Miguel Amaya, who had a slash line of .214/.329.359 in 53 games. The starting job will be his if Gomes slips. If the Cubs want a third catcher, free agent veteran Jorge Alfaro will get a few starts for the Cubbies.

First Base
Michael Busch will be the front-runner for the starting nod, as Cody Bellinger is expected to start in center field for the time being. Busch struggled in 27 games for the Dodgers last year, but Chicago has high hopes for the 2019 first-round draft pick. Patrick Wisdom (.205/.289/.500) has tons of power and will be the likely back-up at each of the corner infield spots.

Second Base
Nico Hoerner (.283/.346/.383) had a solid season in 2023 and led the team with 43 steals. He will be the Cubs leadoff hitter once again. Nick Madrigal (.263/.311/.352) is fighting a hamstring issue and might go on the injured list. If not, he will get playing time at second and third. Miles Mastrobuoni (.241/.308/.301), who can play 2B-3B-SS and either of the corners in the outfield, will be the super-utility, jack-of-all-trades player.

Third Base
Christopher Morel has the slight edge at third so far but could be challenged by Wisdom or Madrigal for playing time. Morel (.247/.313/.508) tied for the team lead last year with 26 HRs.

Shortstop
Dansby Swanson (.244/.328/.416) was an All-Star and Gold Glove winner last year. Hoerner and Mastrobuoni will back up as needed, which shouldn’t be too often.

Left Field
Ian Happ (.248/.360/.431) played in 158 games last year but is bothered by a hamstring issue this spring but should be good to go for Opening Day. Mastrobuoni will fill in as needed at the corner spots.

Center Field
Bellinger (.307/.356/.525) will take over in CF until young phenom Pete Crow-Armstong (PCA) proves his worth at Triple-A Iowa.

Right Field
Seiya Suzuki (.285/.357/.485) has shown improvement his first two seasons and is a solid outfielder.

Designated Hitter
Mike Tauchman (.252/.363/.377) will also be the fourth outfielder for the Cubs, with the ability to play all three spots in the garden.
* All statistics were from 2023.

Predictions
There are two constants seen in the prognosticator’s crystal ball this season: no team in the NL Central is going to win more than 85 games, and that the Pittsburgh Pirates will bring up the rear…again. Look for Chicago and St. Louis to battle for the top spot, with Milwaukee and Cincinnati fighting for third. Of course, hot streaks or injuries could throw those prophecies out the window. Will Craig Counsell be a difference-maker on the bench? Cubs' fans are waiting with bated breath.

Enjoy the season!

How do you think the NL Central will shake out? Please comment below.