2025 NL Central Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

Last Year
The Bucs finished dead last in the NL Central in 2024 with a mark of 76-86 under skipper Derek Shelton, 17 games behind the division-winning Brewers. They climbed as high as second in the standings on July 30, but lost 12 of 13 games to drop them out of the race. Their team OPS+ was 87, which ranked second-to-last in the NL, as did their 1,506 strikeouts. They have lots of work to do, but on the bright side, Paul Skenes won the NL Rookie of the Year award last year and Reynolds was an All-Star, so there is some potential there.

Key Losses: Pitchers Aroldis Chapman and Luis Ortiz, 1B/OF Connor Joe, 1B Rowdy Tellez, OF Bryan De La Cruz, C Yasmani Grandal, OF Michael A. Taylor.

Key Signings: Outfielders Tommy Pham and DJ Stewart, 1B Spencer Horwitz, IF-OF Adam Frazier, 2B Enmanuel Valdéz , pitchers Tim Mayza, Caleb Ferguson, and Tanner Rainey.

Starting Pitching
Any discussion of pitching in Pittsburgh starts with Skenes. Last year’s rookie season earned him the NL ROY award and a third-place finish in the NL Cy Young voting. His stat line showed an ERA+ of 214, 2.44 FIP, a strikeout rate of 33.1% and a walk rate of 6.2%. He will be the staff ace.

Two pitchers that are certain to be in the rotation are right-handers Mitch Keller and Jared Jones. Keller was an All-Star in 2023, and Jones is said to have a fastball comparable to that of Skenes. Southpaw Bailey Falter rounds out the top four. Right-handers Mike Burrows, Bubba Chandler, and Johan Oviedo will compete for the final spot in the rotation. Burrows has some impressive minor league power numbers, while Chandler is #15 on the MLB Top Prospects list. Oviedo missed all of 2024 after Tommy John surgery. Right-handers Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington have potential as well.

Update: Southpaw Andrew Heaney was signed to a free agent contract and will compete for a rotation spot.

2025 FanGraphs ZiPS Projections

Relief Pitching
Seven pitchers appear to have a spot in the bullpen when the Pirates’ season starts on March 27 in Miami. Right-handers David Bednar, Colin Holderman, Dennis Santana, Kyle Nicolas, and Carmen Mlodzinski should start the season as part of the relief crew, with Bednar and Santana handling the late-inning duties. Nicolas has perhaps the best pure stuff on the staff and will pitch in high-leverage situations. Lefties Tim Mayza and Caleb Ferguson will join in the mix.

Five others that have a shot of making the Opening Day roster are righties Carson Fulmer, Peter Strzelecki, Hunter Stratton, and Chase Shugart. Southpaw Ryan Borucki hopes to rebound from an injury-plagued 2024.

2025 FanGraphs ZiPS Projections

Catcher
Joey Bart is the presumptive starter with the departure of Yasmani Grandal. In his first season in Pittsburgh, Bart hit 13 HRs in 253 ABs while leading the team with an OPS+ of 120. Henry Davis and Endy Rodríguez will also see playing time.

First Base
The recently acquired Spencer Horwitz was expected to be the starter but is out for 6-8 weeks after surgery on his right thumb. Utility player Jared Triolo might be next in line. Slick fielding Billy Cook should get some starts, along with outfielder Bryan Reynolds.

Second Base
Nick Gonzales slashed .270/.311/.398 over 359 ABs last year and is penciled in as the starter at the keystone. Triolo will get playing time at second, as will Adam Frazier and Enmanuel Valdéz.

Third Base
After missing the last seven weeks of 2024 with a back injury, Ke’Bryan Hayes appears to be healthy this spring and should start at the hot corner. Frazier and Valdéz will fill in as needed.

Shortstop
Isiah Kiner-Falefa will be the everyday shortstop. Gonzales, Triolo, and Nick Yorke will be the back-ups.

Outfield
The only thing we know for sure is that Oneil Cruz will play center field. The 6-foot-7 shortstop-turned-outfielder has 30/30 potential and will be one of the next Pirates superstars. Tommy Pham might play left while Reynolds plays right. Others that will in the starting mix are Jack Suwinski, DJ Stewart, Yorke, Cook, Joshua Palacios, and Frazier.

Designated Hitter
Most likely, Pittsburgh fan favorite Andrew McCutcheon will be the DH… unless he is needed in the outfield, which would spell doom for the Pirates.. Then, it could be anyone.

2025 FanGraphs ZiPS Projections

Summary

The Pirates aren't anyone's definition of a favorite, and the PECOTA projections have them set to finish fourth in the division with a 78-84 record. A climb back to .500 would be a success for the downtrodden Buccos, who have lots of young talent percolating through the system but have done little to supplement it at the major league level.

Expect Pittsburgh to be a thorn in everyone's side in 2025 while ultimately falling shy of a playoff spot.