jay87shot

I have heard the number 30% used for how much runs (maybe HR) have increased in the minors. I think it is interesting to apply that to the pitchers. For example Manuel Rodriguez has a 4.74 era, 70 earned runs in 133 innings. If you take 30% off that, it is 49 runs which I believe comes out to an ERA of 3.31 which would be really good for a guy who just turn 21 in AA all year. 4.74 doesn't feel like a great year however 3.31 does. I think we have a ton of pitchers that could really fit into that not great on paper but when looked at comparing them to peers (especially of similar age) things are alot better.

How is KeBryan Hayes still a mlb player? In over 200 abs he only has 8 rbi (9 if he gets one for the double play). I get he has the longterm deal and is a good defender. However he has been the worst hitter in the league for like 3 years.

Hopefully being a year further removed from his surgery he can even add a bit to his stuff with a full 100% healthy offseason as well.

Bauers will come down alot to the finances of the team, if the front office is going to trade some combination of Contreras, Megill, Vaughn, or even Ashby a QO is possible. We showed that we can be a little risky last year with Woody and the QO and I think Bauers is a similar decision. The OF with Mitchell and Frelick will be interesting, my guess is that we just keep all 4. However Mitchell would seem like he could have really good value and would be relatively easy to replace. Our other high end OF prospects likely won't be ready until mid-season, so going with Sal and Lockridge (maybe a cheap FA) is manageable. Like you said trading Sal won't bring back much and it isn't to difficult to envision a rebound. I think the Joey, Pratt, Hamilton rotation has been humming along so well I wouldn't change much there. With Made in AAA next year we have really good insurance, if Ortiz is playing well and Made forces his way up I could see a situation where we could move Joey in like June kind of like the Rays trading us Willy when Wander Franco was ready. I think after paying Woody like 40 million for like 110 innings, I feel like a 1 year 2 million dollar deal with incentives to say 6 or 7 makes sense for both sides. Maybe throw in a bigger team option (say 12) with a low buyout just because. I think if he looks healthy Woody as the long man in the bullpen would be a great spot for him. If he gets a little velo back he could slide into a later inning relief role or get stretched out if we end up with a need for a starter at some point. If his injuries come back the low value isn't a backbraker.

4.85 ERA 4.43 FIP, 153 innings 142 k, 55 bb -0.1 WAR, ERA+ 86 that is pretty average to me (slightly below). Yes really really bad compared to what he has been but as far as starters go that isn't awful.

I definitely would lean towards keeping William, if there is an offer that is to good to turn down probably I could be fine moving him. If we do move him I would look to add another young catcher and make it so we have 3 decent options at the beginning of the year. I would think we would need at least a package like what we got for Freddy or better to justify a trade. As you said we should likely get draft compensation however look at what happened to Freddy, the Mets aren't likely to get a pick but likely paid us extra because they could have. I like Jeffers a lot but doubt we would pay him, Stephenson would be a passible option as would Carson Kelly. I wouldn't mind trading for a young catcher if he has control, I think the package we get for Contreras would offset the outgoing assets for a more controllable, cheaper piece. Some other names of interest to me would include Sean Murphy (Braves pay a majority of remaining contract), Harry Ford, Luis Campusano, a Cardinal catching prospect, probably more that aren't coming to my mind at the moment.

Payne ceiling is really quite insane, I find it questionable that he hasn't gotten much love from the national prospect media. His ops went up .170 points and he could still add an easy 15-20 pounds of good weight. For me, he will need to clean up his balance on his swing to cut down on strikeouts but he only turned 20 last month and is playing alright in AA.

It is pretty crazy to compare HR from 2025 to 2026 In 2025 the entire minor leagues for the Brewers ,AAA to DSL, hit 482 HR, this year 718 (not counting last night, I believe) and counting. Bitonti lead our system with 19 HR this year we have 6 players over 20 and that isn't counting Ragsdale who was traded and now has 24. I am sure a little of that can be contributed to a change in the ball or whatever some people believe. However a big part has to deal with how young our org is and just having 18-21 year olds getting stronger. I would think that we could even see more jumps next year since most of our top bats are still going to be in the minors, at least to start the year.

I still have a lot of faith in Sproat long term, at least as a multi inning guy however I agree that last night might be his only shot this year at the bullpen. I think Cam Wagoner is pitching to well not to give him a look.

I think it is finally happening.... Chourio is turning the corner from really good young player to superstar. Yes it could be a hot streak but it seems like he is becoming " A Dude".

I would think Freddy could get a multi-year deal, he still has been at least average and has made all his starts 4 years in a row. That being said I would think it would be more likely Freddy takes like 1/15 than like 3/36 because he is young enough and has enough track record that he could still make big money with a bounce back year. I wouldn't be against getting Freddy back but I don't know if he is better than Gasser or Drohan (Preister when healthy) at this point to justify spending that money.

I would think it would make sense to not offer Zerpa arby and then re-sign him to a minor league deal. In my crazy scenerio I would think we would sign a couple vet guys to 1 year 3/4 milly dollar deals like Kirby Yates or guys like AJ Puk (if healthy) possibly even Brandon Woodruff as a reliever if he throws alright in summer. I think it could be possible in more realistic scenerio that we could even sign a better reliever to bigger 1 year 8-12 million dollar deal if we did trade William and Megill. It isn't our normal way but there isn't much offense to upgrade and our rotation has good depth so really if we do have some money a bullpen add could be the biggest upgrade.

1) I think the rotation is likely Misi, Henderson, Bullpen game (assuming Misi and Henderson don't go short), May. I could see Drohan, Gasser, or Harrison putting together a couple good starts and being the 4th starter in place of the bullpen game. Obviously how game 1 and 2 go would have a big part in who pitches game 3/4 as well. 2-4)I really don't have any worries or concerns on any of these points, we are deep enough from a roster stand point that the last pitching spot hopefully would matter much so whomever is throwing the worst will likely just be the easiest guy to leave off. 5) I always prefer to play and beat the Cubs but they are dangerous especially if they can get something out of there bullpen. I don't like how we have played the Padres and Braves, they are scary with the bullpens and quality vets but I think both have enough rotation questions that we could win. The Phillies or D-backs aren't really a concern even though the Phillies have the roster to make a run. Then obviously there is the Dodgers the Yamamoto, Skubal, Snell, and Glasnow rotation is just daunting, after that I think we matchup well. Our small ball approach is what we need to utilize to beat that rotation and we have played the Dodgers well except for the playoff sweep last year.

With yesterday being win 90, I think it is safe to say we are locked into a playoff spot. Hopefully we can continue to play well and get the #1 seed and further increase our World Series odds. We are currently 1.5 games ahead of the Dodgers and 4.5 ahead of the Braves for the 1st seed. The Cubs are 9 games back with 16 to play so I don't think me saying that we pretty much have the division wrapped up is going to catch an issue. 1) The playoff rotation behind Misi and Henderson is probably the biggest question mark at this point. 2) The last couple bullpen spots also are up for debate. Which current pitcher gets the chop from the playoff roster. 3) Setting up the rotation for the playoffs, hopefully we just keep in 1st and get the bye so Murph doesn't have to manipulate Misi or Henderson to much. That being said it would be nice to give each guy a little extra rest/ease there load knowing both are young and going to be asked alot in October. 4) Batting rotations, this hasn't really been an issue as Murph has use Joey, Pratt, and Hamilton well at SS/3B and Lara, Mitchell, and Sal in CF/RF. 5) Preferred opponents or relevant matchup thoughts Anything else to discuss?

I am pretty worried about this season to be honest, I didn't like anything we did with the o-line and then losing Jacobs could be a major deal. If we can't run Love is capable with the weapons we have off making it work but all of our receiving options have some injury concerns. Also without Micah I feel like the defense is just average at best, hopefully he comes back as his old self but that is always a worry after a major injury. I will hold out hope that the o-line gels well and 1 of the younger unexperienced RB's plays well. I do think that when Micah comes back our defense has a shot to be a top tier unit. There is clearly upside to be a super bowl contender but right now, at least until we play this week, I have more really big concerns than I feel like I usually do week 1.