Brewers Video
First and foremost, it’s important to remember that we are working with the Milwaukee Brewers, a historically frugal team with a tendency to seek value for money over shiny new superstars. While it would be awesome to have Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani make back-to-back starts at American Family Field, the team is unlikely to pursue (and even less likely to actually complete) such lucrative contracts. Now that we’ve set expectations, let’s find some potentially undervalued arms.
Seth Lugo
Lugo spent six years with the Mets before joining the Padres in 2023. He pitched quite well, posting a 3.57 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 146 ⅓ innings and 26 starts. Lugo is a no-nonsense pitcher whose style leverages his excellent control and uses it to compensate for an average strikeout rate and below-average velocity.
His four-seam fastball was his primary weapon, and although it averaged just 93.4 miles per hour, it had respectable whiff and strikeout rates of 21.5% and 31.8%. Count him as a member of the high-heat revolution; his placement in the upper part of the zone made an otherwise average fastball into a plus pitch. Lugo also had one of the best walk rates in the league at just 6.0%.
Despite a strong four-seam, his most effective pitch by run value was actually his sinker, holding a total run value of 11. He held opposing batters to an average of just .206 and an expected weighted on base average of .281. His cumulative fastball run value of 17 was better than 97% of qualified pitchers in 2023. His arsenal of breaking balls left a little to be desired, but with a six-pitch selection, they can’t all be winners.
In addition to his value as a mid- or back-of-the-rotation guy (at least for Milwaukee), Lugo is one of the cheaper options on today’s market. MLB Trade Rumors is expecting him to receive $42 million over three years, a reasonable price to pay and an annual salary only slightly higher than the $10 million paid to Corbin Burnes this past season. As Lugo is just over 34 years old, the Brewers can also exercise some flexibility in terms of the duration of the deal, depending on how comfortable they feel with his somewhat spotty injury history. (Of course, these aren't always rational auctions, and holding firm against giving that third or fourth year might cost the Brewers their chance to land Lugo.)
Michael Wacha
Like his teammate (the aforementioned Seth Lugo), Wacha had a quiet yet effective 2023 campaign. Posting a 3.22 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 134 ⅓ innings and 24 starts, Wacha had the second-highest rWAR on the Padres, behind only NL Cy Young Winner Blake Snell.
Wacha doesn’t possess the petrol of other peak pitchers, but with a changeup as his primary weapon, who cares? His arsenal actually resembles that of Devin Williams, using a four-seam fastball as his secondary pitch and deploying sinkers, cutters, and curveballs for good measure.
Both Wacha’s changeup and his four-seam fastball had run values of 12, with his changeup having exceptional whiff and strikeout rates of 35.9% and 32.0%, respectively. Over 766 pitches, opposing batters posted a .233 xwOBA, and his offspeed run value was higher than 98 percent of the league. His four-seam fastball had an opposing batting average of just .188, despite lower whiff and strikeout rates.
MLBTR projects Michael Wacha to get a three-year, $36-million deal, which places him in a similar price range as Lugo. For an average annual value of $12 million, Wacha could be a great candidate to fill out the second or third spot in the Brewers' starting rotation. At 32 years old, he may even be able to stick around a little longer if things work out well. His presence would also add some interesting pitch mix variety, if wedged between Burnes and Freddy Peralta.
Michael Lorenzen
Despite throwing a no-hitter in his second start with the Phillies, Lorenzen had a second half of 2023 that didn’t exactly boost his free-agent stock. Across 66 innings, he pitched to a 4.36 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. His entire tenure with the Phillies was actually quite disappointing. Aside from the aforementioned no-hitter, his ERA and WHIP with Philadelphia ended up at 5.51 and 1.46. Nonetheless, Lorenzen has some upside. His 3.58 ERA with the Tigers over 105 ⅔ innings earned him his first career All-Star nod (although he was the team’s only selection), and his stats were marred by rough patches in April, June, and September.
Lorenzen largely depended on his four-seam fastball and his slider, a productive pairing that combined for a total of 16 runs better than average. With fastballs placed high in the zone and sliders kept low and inside, he was able to garner whiffs and punchouts in key moments.
What really seemed to deflate his production, at least on paper, were his lackluster breaking balls. His sweeper was particularly weak, with opposing batters averaging .293 against the pitch and slugging .610. Placement seemed to be the problem, with most of the pitches ending up middle-middle or completely outside of the zone.
He likely won’t be winning a Cy Young award anytime soon, but with an estimated contract value of $22 million over two years, Lorenzen fits into the Goldilocks Zone of being just cost-effective enough to pitch in Milwaukee. He’ll be 32 years old by the time the 2024 season starts, so he still has a few years to take advantage of the patented Brewers pitching lab. Who knows? Maybe he’ll even throw another no-hitter.
Which of these three hurlers is your favorite bargain starter target for the Brewers? Who else is on that list for you? Jump into the conversation with a comment.
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