4 Keys To The Cubs-Brewers NLDS Matchup

It has been an especially juicy year for these two titans of the National League Central. Despite the Cubs pulling out to an early lead, the Brewers went on two torrid win streaks and never looked back. Even though Milwaukee finished the season on top, Chicago will get another chance at revenge with the upcoming Division Series. Here are the things to keep an eye out for in the next episode of this historic rivalry.

1. Who will win the plate discipline battle?
During the regular season, Cubs pitchers gave up a combined 405 walks, the fewest of any team in the big leagues by a comfortable margin. No pitcher on staff with more than 40 innings of work had a walk rate above 10% and no starter with more than 100 innings pitched had a walk rate above 7%. Shota Imanaga led the pack with a walk rate of just 4.6% over 144 ⅔ innings.

On the other hand, the Brewers' lineup drew a combined 564 walks this year, fourth in MLB. In total, there were seven hitters with more than 200 plate appearances and a walk rate above 9%:

So, in a classic example of unstoppable force meets immovable object, we’ll have to see which side gives first. Each additional baserunner has amplified impact in a postseason series, and a few extra walks could be the difference between victory and defeat for Milwaukee. 

2. Is extra rest a blessing or a curse?
In 2023, there was considerable discussion about whether it was an acceptable result that three of the four teams that had received a first-round bye (Orioles, Dodgers, Braves) had been eliminated after the Division Series. Of course, that postseason was full of surprises that ended up in a World Series involving a #5 seed and a #6 seed, but a similar thing had happened in 2022 when the Braves and Dodgers failed to make the most out of their first-round byes. Most blamed teams not being fully warmed up and ready to play by the time the Division Series rolled around due to the extended break.

However, most involved in the team's direct operations would agree that extra rest is much needed, especially after the grind of the regular season. In addition to receiving full-body mud wraps and aromatherapy, teams with a first-round bye get to set their rotation exactly as they would like. While Brewers starters were drinking chocolate milk out of sippy cups, the Cubs just endured a challenging 27-inning series against the Padres that removed the possibility of Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, or Jameson Taillon getting the start in the first game. 

If there’s ever an opportunity for the Brewers to strike hard and fast, it’s while they’re fresh and the Cubs are more spent. Yes, there may be a downside to excessive rest, and despite the Brewers holding scrimmages, nothing can truly replicate the atmosphere of the postseason. However, while the adverse effects of this are still unclear, everyone knows that more fatigue leads to more weaknesses, a major tailwind for Milwaukee.

3. Can Milwaukee’s infield defense compete with the Cubs in a small sample?
Across the entire season, Chicago’s defense was leagues better than the Brewers, at least on paper. The Cubs accumulated a total of +84 Defensive Runs Saved, more than twice as many as the Brewers’ +31. Furthermore, the Cubs only had one position with negative Defensive Runs Saved: right field. Meanwhile, the Brewers were below average at shortstop, left field, center field, and catcher while being average at first base.

It’s a deviation from the norm for the Brewers who have had elite defensive results over the past years and there are several reasons for it, aside from the inherent volatility of playing defense in baseball. However, while the numbers may paint the picture of a chasm between the two teams and their fielding abilities, Milwaukee has the pieces to make it work. 

Caleb Durbin has proven himself to be a solid fielder in his first full season primarily playing third base and Brice Turang is the defending Platinum Glove winner. While Joey Ortiz is a below-average fielder by DRS, he has elite range, posting +12 Outs Above Average (97th percentile). This trio may not have had the same regular season results as Chicago’s infield triumvirate of Matt Shaw, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner but they’ve shown that they’re more than capable of being elevated to the same level.

4. How aggressively will the Brewers attack the Cubs’ biggest hitters?
The Brewers have a pretty well-rounded lineup. There aren’t any players that are significantly better or worse than the rest of the pack and there could be a new offensive hero on the team on any given night. The same can’t really be said about the Cubs.

The highest wRC+ of any qualified Brewer this season belonged to Brice Turang (124). The Cubs have three players at or above that mark: Michael Busch (140), Kyle Tucker (136), and Seiya Suzuki (123). Okay, Seiya is technically lower but not considering him a serious threat in this lineup would be a big mistake, especially after what he did against the Padres.

It would be difficult to pitch around all of them, there’s simply too much protection in the lineup and all three of them have good walk rates, especially Kyle Tucker (14.6%). Going right down the middle may not be a good idea either as these sluggers have been known to hit quite a few homers between them.

Milwaukee’s pitchers are no pushovers and each at-bat will likely be highly competitive. However, since the rotation lacks an arm with the gas of a Tarik Skubal or the stuff Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Brewers will likely have to get a little crafty if they want to a chance at survival against such a potent lineup.