A Deep Dive on Brice Turang's Early Returns

Brice Turang has been a big upgrade already for the Brewers. A key part of the team’s league-best defense, the rookie second baseman trails only William Contreras in Defensive Runs Saved with 5. Compare that to the sad decline of Kolten Wong, who props up the league with -8 DRS so far and a ghastly 43 OPS+. Turang has provided huge range to cope with the loss of the shift; smooth actions; and an accurate throwing arm from all sorts of off-balance angles, something that was desperately needed given the heavy ground-ball approach so far this season from their pitchers.

He started off brightly with the bat, showing why his contact skills were hyped and using his smooth swing to spray the ball to all fields, but did have a dip where his strikeouts rose alarmingly, and he struggled to make any meaningful contact with the ball. After a short break over a weekend in which the Brewers faced only left-handed starters, Turang has looked far more dangerous and consistent at the plate.

What did we expect?

Since the Brewers picked up Turang in the first round of the 2018 draft, the scouting report has been fairly consistent with what he has produced–smooth actions, good range at shortstop, with strong bat-to-ball skills and (hopefully) developing power. During his climb through the minors, he always put up numbers right around the league average, until his final half-season at Nashville. There, he managed to elevate the ball and drive it with more authority, while also cutting down a little on his strikeouts. He hit nine home runs in July and September, a sign he was potentially ready for big-league at-bats. It’s important to also recognize that, as a high-school draftee, he was considerably younger than his competition at every level of the minors.

The Brewers needed to move on from Wong, who (although he did show more pop than expected) was subpar in the field. Given the struggles with injuries, the Brewers were hoping for some sort of consistent contact profile to go with above-average defense, and someone who could legitimately cover an injury to Willy Adames and the resultant hole at shortstop.

The Story So Far

Turang burst onto the scene initially, making some rangy plays and demonstrating a strong knowledge of the strike zone, with an 80th-percentile chase rate after the first two weeks. He did have some swing-and-miss inside the zone, but was making frequent, valuable contact, including a huge grand slam against the New York Mets in the home opener. Since then, however, things have gone downhill, with pitchers attacking him in the zone a lot more often early in the count, and his 25th-percentile whiff rate has come to the fore when he falls behind. If you’d suggested that Joey Wiemer would strike out considerably less than Brice Turang in the majors, most scouts would have laughed.

TURANG GRAND SLAM!!!#ThisIsMyCrew | @BRiCEcTuRANG pic.twitter.com/uFQQMNoygZ

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) April 3, 2023

He is sporting a 28.4% strikeout rate, and is almost the inverse of Wiemer, in that he has been targeted heavily by fastballs and changeups, to which he hasn’t found much of an answer (both have an xBA of under .200). Notably, he has just a 16% hard-hit rate against changeups, and 20% hard-hit rate against sinkers. On the contrary, however, he is really taking advantage of breaking pitches, to the tune of a .421 batting average and .526 slugging percentage, whiffing just 25% of the time on such pitches.

He has begun to get some more results in the past week, hitting .421/.500/.474 in his last seven games, but he hasn’t improved in any meaningful category against the fastball, with lower exit velocities and hard-hit rates so far this month compared to Mach and April. He is striking out less often against it however, recording four hits in eight AB’s ending on the fastball (11 PA’s) with an xBA of .338, due to a lower line drive launch angle of 11 degrees in May. If he can start to increase the pressure on the fastball, we can start to see some of the damage come through on breaking pitches again.

Defensively, he has been exactly as advertised, making everything look so simple, and covering a lot of ground to both sides, but in particular with a +3 metric to his left side. This is especially beneficial due to the complete lack of range of the Brewers’ first basemen. His accuracy has been a key component to the Brewers’ league-leading defense.

On the basepaths, he has also been a handful, recording five steals, with a very good Statcast-recorded Sprint Speed of 29 ft/sec and 2 Bolts (where the runner averages over 30 ft/sec for one dash). He has the potential to be a 25-30 steals guy regularly, but he does need to find his way on base a little more often.

Stand Out Stats

• In 10 plate appearances so far against left-handers, Turang has five strikeouts and zero hits
• He has yet to record a hit in the eighth or ninth inning of a game, in 23 plate appearances
• Has a .785 OPS when he’s swung at the first pitch, compared to .597 when he’s taken the first pitch
• Has hit just .130 against starting pitchers the first time up, but .458 against them the second time through

The Deeper Dive 

Looking at the strikeouts from Turang, one thing that jumps out immediately is how many pitches he’s whiffed on in the meatball section, swinging and missing on 30 percent of middle-middle pitches. His approach so far, looking at his zone swing %, is to try and attack anything inside and over the heart of the plate, being much pickier with anything on the outer third of the strike zone. While he does regularly create line drives in this area (over 50% of balls in the outer third are line drives) he struggles to create high exit velocities, and as such, he’s trying to avoid swinging on these early in the count. 

He’s averaged 78 mph off the bat in the zone down and away–one reason why he’s struggled with both sinkers and changeups while hitting considerably better against four-seam fastballs, due to his strength up in the zone.

Most left-handed hitters are particularly adept at pulling pitches over the heart of the plate, but Turang has struggled so far to do damage in that area. He isn’t creating the exit velocities to consistently hurt pitchers when they make mistakes, and he’s whiffing far too often (as previously mentioned) on these pitches. In the lower third of the strike zone, he’s hitting soft ground balls far too regularly, and with his contact profile, it’s something he can’t afford to do. Where he has made hay so far is when pitches are left up, creating ideal launch angles 40% of the time, allowing him to challenge the outfield grass with regularity.

Also, although he has very low chase rates, when he does chase, he struggles to make any contact, with his out-of-zone contact at 42%, compared to the MLB average of 58.2%. Against better pitchers, this is unsustainable, and he needs to do a better job of fouling off pitches and dragging ABs deeper, given the skills he has at putting bat on ball. He’s currently facing four pitches per plate appearance, but have a look below and you’ll see how often he swings and misses at anything outside;

Final Word

From his performance in his first month, you can see clearly the areas in which you would expect Turang to begin to perform better, and the areas in which he can start to advance as a hitter. His ability to stay in the at-bat when pitchers do force him to chase is a must, and could do a lot to turn around his strikeout and whiff numbers, bolstering his contact-heavy approach.
He has gone mostly to the opposite field and up the middle with his batted balls so far, and done nearly all of his damage on pitches inside, belt high. His current whiff rate over the heart of the plate is unsustainable, but if he can develop an ability to do damage on these pitches as well, and pull the mistakes, then he could take a step up to the next level as a hitter.

His quality defense and base running give him a floor that should allow him to be a successful big leaguer even if he is in the 90 WRC+ range, but the Brewers will be hoping that, at just 23 years old, he has a lot of growth ahead of him.