Matt Arnold Is Confident In Aaron Ashby, Should Fans Feel The Same?

The Brewers are getting some promising news on Aaron Ashby. Brewers General Manager Matt Arnold has said that Ashby is “Doing well; these shoulder injuries are always tricky. Excited about what he can do for us this year.” Recently, Arnold has spoken about Ashby being part of the Brewers' starting rotation.      

It isn't easy projecting what to expect from Ashby, so many haven’t been projecting much. ZIPS projects Ashby to pitch 81 innings in 26 games, including 17 starts, but they don’t include him as one of the Brewers' top six starting pitchers. They are bullish on his skillset, predicting Ashby to have a better ERA than any other Brewers starting pitcher not named Freddy Peralta.    

If healthy, Ashby could show some significant development. He is entering his age 26 season, statistically, when a pitcher provides the greatest WAR and innings pitched to a team. If Ashby had not been injured last year, one would expect his arm to be built up to workhorse levels by this year, being his third full season in the majors. 

In addition to returning from injury, some other red flags may limit our expectations for Ashby. Primary amongst these is his inability to win battles later in a start or during a jam. Ashby’s career OPS against when facing a hitter for a third time through the lineup is .903. His OPS against runners on base is .815, and his OPS with two outs and runners on base is 1.098. Those aren’t good numbers. 

But he has the stuff. Brewer Fanatic pegged Ashby as a potential breakout player before the 2023 season. In 2022, his slider was ranked ninth in vertical movement and 24th in horizontal. movement His sinker ranked 30th in horizontal movement. Is it just knowing how to pitch in key situations and use his stuff best? Do these adjustments come with experience?    

An optimistic comparison for Ashby would be Brandon Woodruff’s age 26 season. That is the year Woodruff put things together, lowered his walk per nine from 3.0 to 2.2, and showed his potential to be a front-of-the-rotation starter (3.62 ERA) through 121 innings. Even though he has more major league innings than Woodruff did at age 26, Ashby could see this type of breakout.   

Ashby has a different pitch mix and has greater issues with control (career 3.8 walks per nine), so Woodruff's level of development may be too much. A more tempered but optimistic projection can have him on the same trajectory but toward being a solid middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. In this scenario, Ashby could throw around 120 innings in 2024 with an ERA of around 4.00, roughly league average starter material.       

To begin the season, the Brewers will likely be very careful with how they use Ashby, perhaps limiting him to 60 to 80 pitches an outing. It would be best to do this as a starter to ensure consistent rest between outings. An Aaron Ashby/Bryse Wilson piggyback may be seen quite a bit. If Ashby is successful, he could stretch out to go deeper into games. Robert Gasser, who pitched 135.1 very good innings in Triple-A Nashville last season, is also pounding on the door to see big-league time in Milwaukee later this summer.

Any projection for Aaron Ashby is presented with two caveats.  Will he be healthy? Labrum tears have derailed several pitchers’ careers. And will he take the developmental steps to harness his raw stuff and improve results later in innings and games?