Analyzing Second-Half Strength of Schedule and Playoff Chances for Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers currently boast the third-best record in the National League, at 56-40. According to FanGraphs, they have an 83.4% chance to make the playoffs and a 32.6% chance to win the division. Those are good odds, but there are no certainties in baseball.

Here’s everything you need to know about where the Brewers currently stand in the playoff picture:

Strength of Schedule

As you can see, per FanGraphs, the Brewers have the 10th-hardest remaining strength of schedule. Tankathon, another commonly cited website, has the Brewers' schedule third-hardest. 

Milwaukee starts their second half with a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers (58-39), who currently sport the best record in the National League. Milwaukee will also play two series (eight games) against the Chicago Cubs (57-39), who have the second-best record.

The Brewers will face every team in the National League after the All-Star break except for the worst, the Colorado Rockies. In addition to the Dodgers and Cubs, the Brewers will play a total of nine games against the Phillies, Mets, and Padres—currently the fourth-, fifth-, and sixth-best teams in the National League.

Some 62% of Milwaukee’s remaining games (41 of 66) are against opponents who are currently over .500. Of the 25 games against opponents currently under .500, 10 of them are against opponents who are currently within three games of .500.

While every game counts, the most important games in the second half of the season are against the Dodgers and Cubs. Milwaukee is only a game behind Chicago in the NL Central, so those eight games provide an invaluable opportunity to make up ground in the division race—especially because, per FanGraphs, the Cubs have the easiest strength of schedule in the league the rest of the way. The Dodgers series is both an opportunity to build confidence against maybe the most stacked team in the league, and an opportunity to improve playoff seeding.

Ending with a winning record against the Cubs and Dodgers will matter even more if the Cubs and Brewers are still the second- and third-best teams in the National League come September. Winning the NL Central as the second seed, therefore avoiding the Wild Card round, might be a boon to the Brewers’ chances of playing deep into October. Anything can happen in the Wild Card, as we saw last year when the sixth-seeded Mets upset the third-seeded Brewers.

Note: FanGraphs doesn’t actually have a strength of schedule tool, but what they do have is a handy little guide – found here – on how to calculate it yourself using their “Team Projections” and “Playoff Odds” pages. 

Potential Playoff Opponents
There are still two and a half months left to play, so the playoff picture can (and will) change between now and October. If the season ended today, the Brewers would be the fourth seed, as the best Wild Card team in the National League. The top three seeds would be the division-leading Dodgers (NL West), Cubs (NL Central), and Phillies (NL East). 

Despite the stark difference in strength of scbedule, FanGraphs projects the Brewers to finish at 90-72, one game behind the 91-71 Cubs. Baseball Reference also has the Brewers finishing second in the division, at 92-70. Notably, this model has the Brewers finishing three games ahead of the Mets, which would put them as the fourth seed going into the playoffs. 

If the season ended today, the Brewers would play a best-of-three series against the fifth seed, which will probably be the second-best NL East team (right now, the Mets). If the Brewers end up as the fifth seed, they’ll probably still play whichever of the Phillies or Mets has a worse record. For what it’s worth, both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs have the Brewers facing the Mets in a Wild Card Series, with the winner moving on to face the Los Angeles Dodgers. If Milwaukee falls all the way down to the sixth seed, they’ll play the division winner with the worst record—most likely the winner of the NL East.

With all that being said, the Brewers are only a game back in the division. If Milwaukee manages to win the NL Central, they might also be the second seed, giving them a bye for the Wild Card round. They would play the winner of the third and sixth seed game, which would probably be Mets/Phillies vs. Padres/Giants.  

The most unlikely scenario is that the Brewers win the division, but finish with a worse record than the other division winners, making them the third seed. In that case, they’d play the sixth seed, which is currently the Padres. The San Francisco Giants are only a half-game back of the Padres, and the Cardinals are only a game behind the Giants, so it’s highly feasible any of those three teams could be the Brewers’ opponent if they end up here. Don’t count out the Reds, either; Cincinnati is suddenly just a game back of St. Louis.

Division Record
The NL Central is, as always, hotly contested. The fourth-place Reds are three games over .500 and just 7.5 games back of the Cubs for the division lead. Every team except the Pittsburgh Pirates had at least 50 wins heading into the All-Star break. The Brewers’ main competition in the NL Central is still clearly the Cubs, who have the best run differential (+119) in all of baseball. 

At the All-Star break, Milwaukee is 1 game behind the Cubs and 5.5 games ahead of the third-place Cardinals. Chicago started the season really hot, but has cooled off somewhat over the last month and a half. The opposite has been true of the Brewers, who were beset with injuries to their pitching staff in the early part of the season. Milwaukee (25-12) actually has a better record than the Cubs (21-17) since June 1.

The Brewers’ record this season against the NL Central is 15-11 (.577). Although the Brewers have a winning record against every other team in the division, they’ve won just two of five games against the Cubs. Milwaukee’s chances at winning the division will be greatly improved if they can take five or six of the eight upcoming games against Chicago..